what can i run a marathon in (new york city) based on this 18 mile “tune-up” race in central park yesterday. conditions were rainy but not too bad in terms of wind etc. Wanted to run 7:30/7:15/7:00 per lap and came pretty close in execution.
18 miles: 2:09.7 (7:12 pace)
3x6mi loop:
1st loop) 7:28.8 pace
2nd loop) 7:11.85 pace
3rd loop) 6:55.9 pace
I had a really awful race in new york last year so I’m still really unsure how to go about the marathon.
3:14:06…more or less according to Daniels. Provided you have the requisite long runs and mileage, and can show the pace control and patience from your tune up.
Good luck!
It’s tough to tell without any indication of effort. But if you started easy and meant to finish at marathon-pace (can you tell based on HR or RPE?), I don’t see why you wouldn’t go after the 3:00 mark.
Good luck in NY. The best organized raced - bar none - as far as I am concerned.
My guess is 3:12 or so…Your 20 miler time would put you right at 2:25 or so, which is pretty close to 3:10 pace.
That said, the race only begins at Mile 20 and in NYC mile 23-25 is straight up the hill along Central Park.
Bob
As you know the half way point is a marathon is 20 miles. Some pretty crazy shit can happen after that, so even with the best preparation it is still somewhat a roll of the dice!
The real question that only you can answer is if you had enough left in the tank when you crossed the line do do another lap and 1/3 at or better than the previous 3 laps…
When i died doing the CMM 2 years ago i knew 2 weeks out that i was not going to be able to hold my goal time based on an 18 mile run…and Shit Happened at 21.5!
Good Luck
I think you can break 3 hours if you weren’t completely gassed at the end, go for it!
Nice negative split!
MC
3:05 - 3:15
What end of the range would depend on the whether your 18 mile performance was done in the context of a full volume training week or did you taper for it to some degree? Negative splitting is a good sign, but the last 1/4 of a long run with a conservative start is can often be done faster than marathon race pace. So sub 3:05 would be a stretch IMO unless you had a full volume week prior to the 18 and running on fatigued legs.
Cheers!
Don’t know what time to predict but the 18 mile central park tune up is MUCH hillier than the marathon course. You did the hills at the north end of the park 3 times - you won’t face anything like that race day. Good luck meeting your goals!
I’m glad you asked ST “experts” for advice on your finish time.
As you know, long training runs are typically done at 1 to 2 minutes per mile slower than race pace.
So based on your 18 mile time of 2:09, your marathon finish time will be around 2:16. And if you get serious, I’d say close to WR 2:03!
Congratulations.
(sorry, I couldn’t resist)
Look into the Yasso 800 calculator. It’s a bit of an odd test but I have a few friends that have had freakishly close results.
I have found Running for Fitness to be a fairly accurate resource. The site’s average predicted time (from various calculations) is 3:14:xx. However, the big question, as others have implied, is whether you had anything left in the tank for another 8.2 miles. What was your average HR on the final loop? If you were already anaerobic, you’re likely to bonk before the finish if you attempt to maintain or exceed that pace.
My personal recommendation entails running the first 18-20 miles within your aerobic threshold, then running negative splits for the remaining distance. Perhaps more experienced marathoners can give better advice, but this is a reasonably “safe” approach.
//Edward
don’t listen to the “experts”.
from McMillan, based on an 30km RACE, not tune up workout. So, if you saved some in the tank on your 18 miler, or ran your 18 miler at 26.2 mile pace, then you can subtract a little bit.
http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/cgi-bin/calculations.pl
Event 100m 200m 400m 500m 800m 1000m 1500m Mile 2000m 3000m 2M 4000m 3M 5000m Time 16.7 33.4 1:09.8 1:31.0 2:33.2 3:20.2 5:15.4 5:39.7 7:10.7 11:14.9 12:04.9 15:22.1 18:54 19:37 Pace/Mile -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5:46.5 6:02.0 6:02.5 6:11.0 6:18 6:19 Pace/K -- -- -- -- -- -- 3:30.3 3:31.1 3:35.3 3:44.9 3:45.2 3:50.5 3:55 3:55 Event 4M 8000m 5M 10K 15K 10M 20K 13.1M 15M 25K 30K 20M 25M Marathon Time 25:39 32:20 32:30 40:45 1:03:08 1:08:16 1:25:55 1:30:40 1:44:34 1:49:09 2:12:45 2:23:34 3:00:59 **3:11:13** Pace/Mile 6:25 6:30 6:30 6:33 6:46 6:49 6:56 6:56 6:59 7:02 7:08 7:11 7:14 7:18 Pace/K 3:59 4:02 4:02 4:04 4:13 4:14 4:18 4:18 4:20 4:22 4:26 4:28 4:30 4:32
thank you all for the replies. I will add a little more info for today since I will be back at jury duty and won’t have much else to do.
Background: 1:21:55 1/2 marathon PB (1:25:41 PB split in HIM), but I’m not quite at that fitness level now. I ran a 3:40 something split enroute to a 9:45 IM in 2007 and then last year did a 3:40 at NYC. that was a disaster as I went out in 1:35 and did an ugly positive split. I didn’t really train seriously and paid for it big time. It’s been messing with my head ever since.
I am focusing more on long runs and have at least 6 over 18 miles so far this year. I’m probably hitting 35-50 miles a week since late July. In general I do my steady long runs sub 7:50 pace. I have mixed in some “up-tempo” and tempo training but not a ton.
The 18-miler was not an “all-out” effort by any means. I was very conservative at the beginning but did pick it up and move towards the end so the overall effort was tough but not exhausting. It felt good. Here are my run splits by mile. They are not terribly even due to the hills in central park. I include HR data. I’m a 26yo male, max heart rate is something like 210 and LT is around 189 I think (haven’t tested lately).
Here are the splits
overall 2:09:34 (avg hr: 179)
I still think that you have a shot at 3:00 or so. (HR was a bit high during the slower, early miles but who knows.)
In the coming weeks, find the time to race a 5 or 10 k race (NYRR has tons) and plug your time in one of the online time predictors (e.g. McMillan’s), it will give you a much clearer picture of what is possible - not guaranteed but possible.
Good luck.
well now we’re talking “potential” vs. “fitness”. In other words, what you could do vs. what you’ll actually do. With a 1:21 open and 1:25 HIM split, I’d say a 2:50 marathon is not out of the question (McMillan predicts 2:52). I’ve heard it said that a good rule of thumb is that you’ll typically run off the bike at a HIM half of your open marathon time. IOW, the day you ran 1:25 off the bike (your “fitness”, all things being equal) you probably had 2:50 marathon “potential” (assuming a full marathon specific train up, which you didn’t do).
you can see what a slippery slope this is trying to predict times from other times. Just go out there and pace and execute and you’ll do well. Halfway point at the NYC marathon is 20 miles, like other posters have said.
FWIW I also have done an IM in the high 9’s and seem to be about similar in fitness to you. I think if I trained for a marathon I’d be attempting a sub-3 for sure, maybe even 2:55. I run 3:25 off the bike. While we have similar potential I do my long runs at a 4:15-4:30/km pace, or 6:50-7:15/mi pace. Different methods I guess.
Also if you’re running 3:40 off the bike at an IM, you’re probably over biking. Just had to get that jab in! Sorry 
A more advanced Slowtwitcher would tell you that you overbiked because your seat was too high, but I’m not that good.
Looks great through 18, but what has been your long run?
With 8 marathons under my belt all I can say is I never figured it out…but the adage is true. Somewhere around 20 miles or so the race really begins. Maybe if I had told myself it was a 30 mile race my mind would have blown through 20 and before I knew it I was ripping down the finishing chute? Dunno.
All my planning, long runs to 23 miles, great pacing…it’s just a long day and a lot can happen.
If 18 is your long then I think you are definitely in the ‘grey’ zone as far as what to expect. To just assume the next 8.2 miles will go as planned is kinda sketchy…
You will be under 3 hrs . 2:55 would be my guess if you run a smart, steady pace, even pace the whole way. Good luck but it depends on how hard you pushed that 18 miler. Did you race it with your ALL? doesn’t sound like it judging by your pacing strategy. If it was a nice hard effort but not a killer one, you will go 2:55.
I ran 18.6 miles in a race in 2 hours 45 minutes- it was pretty warm out, so I was exhausted at the end
my goal is to go under 4 hours in the NYC Marathon- I run 40-45 miles per week at a 9 minute mile pace- usually run in the evenings and one morning for my longest run
I would hope with the different weather conditions I can do the remaining 7 1/2 miles in under 75 minutes- adrenaline will get me though the last 3 miles
.