I know all of this is a publicity stunt, & Id love Lieto & Macca to do well, but Id be surprised if they make 100th place in the TT.
A while back, Michael Hutchinson a top British time trialist (not Triathlete!) did the GP des Nations a while back and was well beaten… by Jonathan Vaughters & at least 22 others. Vaughters is good but he`s not a powerhouse of Cancelara’s caliber. And Hutchinson has some really impressive PRs:
10 miles - 2009 - 18m 02s
25 miles - 2009 - 46m 03s
50 miles - 2008 - 1h 35m 27s
100 miles - 2003 - 3h 23m 33s
Pro cyclists from the European circuit have truly awesome TTing ability. Udo Bolt`s performance at the Hawaii IM does not serve as a comparison.
Lieto has already given excuses already in his interview, that its just a training ride, & thats not a good sign.
Hahaha! Well put! Thats it in a nutshell, though I wont be pleased at seeing Lieto & co. being whupped. BUT I`ll have a good laugh reading all the posts that will make excuses for them after: they where just training, all cyclists are dopers, they race long-distance, etc…
I agree that Cancellara probably doesnt run that fast, but youd be surprised. Alan Pieper, a top Aussie domestique could do a 32:00 10k. He used to run in the off season. Ive seen some big rowing olympians cranking out sub 16:00 5ks... But the point is that theyre measuring up on cycling ability & not running. Also you could argue that the talent attracted by cycling is higher level due to higher pay-checks.
You forgot: “Well let’s see how fast the cyclist can run a 10K!”
In Slowman’s article that I asked for a link to from Dev_Paul’s TT thread I misinterpreted what was written. Yes, for the most part when a cyclist and triathlete meet the triathlete will win because they are on the triathlon course ( i don’t agree that 9 seconds by Lance is* narrowly* winning but that’s another thread) but hands down on a cyclist’s stomping grounds triathletes have no rhyme or reason in the game. I’ve said it before and it’s not to be spiteful as even bjorn pretty much said the same thing as Macca and Lieto are both saying the same thing as well as aero seems to have betrayed the triathlete when it comes to strength, something cyclists have an elaborate supply of.
That being said, I’m really looking forward to stage 7 and I do believe that only Lieto has a chance of placing anywhere near the top 50 or so.
I’m really looking forwards to Big Dan’s ride over anyone’s for the most part though, no pressure.
I’m putting my helmet on for the rest of this thread.
I bet Lieto is in the top 20. I think his FTP is in the (very) low 400’s and he knows better than most how to make good use of it.
I would guess somewhat educatedly that the ToC field’s range of FTP is something like 350 or so for the lighter guys to the 430-450 range for the big powerhouses. I would add 25 watts to those guess for something like the TDF.
Furthermore, I would guess that the prior days of racing will beat down the field more than Lieto’s training will beat him down. Do you think he really won’t rest all?
That being said, I’m really looking forward to stage 7 and I do believe that only Lieto has a chance of placing anywhere near the top 50 or so.
Oh, Ill be glued to the TV too, & hoping that Lieto, Macca & Chrissie do us proud, but for raw cycling power, they cant touch even the minor pros.
yuppers and wow, I never before thought of myself included in the ‘us’ factor. thanks but i’m mainly a rider. I like the idea of speed but only through pure strength and finesse first so if I had to absolutely consider myself anything, it’d be a cyclist then Ironman, but that’s in the making.
yeah, i’ll be right here on the net glued as well, i’m sure there’ll be a lively discussion going on.
Oh, despite his excuse that itll just be a training run, I bet hell be going at 110%, otherwise why do it at all? You may be right, maybe the previous days racing will dull the roadies speed. Also people not aiming at a GC place might hold back, but a lot of these pros dont even divulge their power output. Pantanis (RIP) threshold was supposed to be 450, or 430, and he was a sub 60kg climber.
EDIT: I tried to find where I read this - Im guessing in some magazine quite a while ago. Might be total BS, but Im pretty certain that`s what I read, cos that number stuck in my mind as being pretty impressive. Another high power number from a small guy was the 550 watts Cris Boardman was supposed to have generated when doing his 56.375km run in the superman position.
Not sure but I don’t think anyone has ever been reliably tested at over 7 watts/kg. I think the magic # for TDF victory was like 6.9, but I could be remembering wrong. Pantani, Armstrong, Cancellara and maybe Contador really skew things when you are trying to get a feel for the middle of the (world class) pack.
I would highly doubt those numbers. If you split it in the middle at 440/60 = 7.333. The best TdF contender on the program is around 6.8 for ~30-40 minutes.
I bet Lieto is in the top 20. I think his FTP is in the (very) low 400’s and he knows better than most how to make good use of it.
I would guess somewhat educatedly that the ToC field’s range of FTP is something like 350 or so for the lighter guys to the 430-450 range for the big powerhouses. I would add 25 watts to those guess for something like the TDF.
Furthermore, I would guess that the prior days of racing will beat down the field more than Lieto’s training will beat him down. Do you think he really won’t rest all?
but what does those lesser functional threshold power numbers equate to in guys who are indeed smaller and need less of it to be equally as fast if that is what you are implying? i’d personally assume they amount to something very significant as in less mass that they are pushing and less mass for drag.
am i right? and i’m not buying the pre days stages being anything that any cyclist is not already used to and will be mroe than prepared for, especially in a tt. if anything they will ALL be out for blood against the triathlete.
Yeah, Im going to ride early on the 7th, to be home in time for it. Then Ill sit back, break out the snacks and enjoy the show. And Lieto will have to do the hard work!
Power to weight is where it’s at *in general. *However, regarding typical time trials, it has more to do with absolute power regardless of weight or more specifically power/frontal area.
So those smaller guys go faster uphill with greater watts/kilo but slower in TT’s with less watts/CDA.
Dr. C has nice chart on this I’m sure someone wil post.
And believe me, multiple days of racing beat you down, including and specifically your FTP. Especially in these days of less “help”.
Rider 1 at 350 watts and 70 kilos (5 watts/kilo) vs rider 2 at 400 watts and 80 kilos (5 watts/kilo)
Both theoretically climb at equal speed but the 400 watt guy will easily beat the 350 wat guy in a flat time trial when equalized for position and equipment. Even making slightly more drag through larger frontal area, it is not enough to negate his advantage in power.
Weight goes up faster than frontal area goes up, in general. And power in general goes up with weight in high level cyclists. So small guys climb and big guys TT and One Day and what not.
You may be right, maybe the previous days racing will dull the roadies speed. Also people not aiming at a GC place might hold back, \
Talking about making excuses for the triathletes, what the hell is this??? The triathletes do not need excuses, we all know what they do for a living and how important this little race is to them. Personally I think top 20 for Leito is very doable, and even higher. Macca will beat half the pro field. When it is all over, subtract a minute from Leito’s time, and you will have where Bjorn most likely would have been too, based on last weeks 40k they both did…It is gonna be fun either way, and we will know who was the most right a little more than a week from today!!!
