Well, the TDF starts in a little more than 4 weeks and I for one am getting pumped… While there probably isn’t one clear favorite this year, it’s sure to be exciting to see who emerges in yellow after stage 16 (arguably the toughest stage this year). Certainly Astana’s looking good, they’ll have Vino and Kloden in addition to some several promising good riders. Look also for Leipheimer to stamp his footprint on this years tour. Valverde has got to be exited as well as his chances are good to finish high up. The spainard Pereiro was last year’s revelation, though this year I think he’ll have a bulls-eye on his back and won’t be given a chance to go up the road. In the end I think it’s going to be Vino, Valverde and Leipheimer on the podium. I think I’ll pick Sastre as my dark horse to squeeze in if one of my top three falls out. I think McEwen’s going to eat up the green jersey. He’s faster now than ever. I can’t really pick a clear favorite for the polka dot jersey this year…
Prereior as a revelation? He got lucky in a break and Phonak would chase…He was and is a more talented Thomas Voeckler.
Valverde may not race with all this Puerto crap still going on.
That said, with one month to go, my top five, er, six in no particular order…
- Vino
- Kloeden
- Kashcheckin
- Leipheimer
- Rogers
- Evans
Bob
Don’t forget Cadel Evans - I think he’ll be top 5.
Kloden, Levi, Vino…1,2,3!
Dave in VA
Vino is an interesting cat. He’s such a fighter and has such spirit, but sometimes does things that don’t work well for him. He gets dropped in the high mountains and I wonder if that might not haunt him at the Tour. Not saying it will, but it might. And remember while he did well climbing at the Vuelta, he won it by beting Valverde down a descent…
Bob
Well, the TDF starts in a little more than 4 weeks and I for one am getting pumped… While there probably isn’t one clear favorite this year, it’s sure to be exciting to see who emerges in yellow after stage 16 (arguably the toughest stage this year). Certainly Astana’s looking good, they’ll have Vino and Kloden in addition to some several promising good riders. Look also for Leipheimer to stamp his footprint on this years tour. Valverde got to be exited as well as his chances. The spainard Pereiro was last year’s revelation, though this year I think he’ll have a bulls-eye on his back and won’t be given a chance to go up the road. In the end I think it’s going to be Vino, Valverde and Leipheimer on the podium. I think I’ll pick Sastre as my dark horse to squeeze in if one of my top three falls out. I think McEwen’s going to eat up the green jersey. He’s faster now than ever. I can’t really pick a clear favorite for the polka dot jersey this year…
Levi - If he does win, which I hope he does, the French will pull some rule out of nowhere that Americans can’t win the race 9 years running.
Vino - It’s now or never.
Kloden - Will crack under pressure.
Valverde - I won’t be surprised if he’s not allowed to race at the last minute, he’s speculated to be involved in the Puerto ordeal. Sure, nothing’s proven, but has that stopped the organizing committee in the past? Also, if he’s never actually finished a tour, I think it unlikely he’ll finish this one within the top 3. Top 50 if he makes it to Paris.
Pereiro - last year’s revelation? Lucky break-away is all that was revealed. He’s finished top 10 before, but he’ll be helping Valverde until Valverde drops out, by then he may be too far out of it to contend. Top 20.
Green Jersey - Tomke if he makes Paris, otherwise I’m picking a shoot out between Thor and AleJet. McEwen was at the Giro, based on his performance against AleJet there it won’t be much of a competition.
Polka Dot - Ever hear of “Chicken”? He’s won it 2 years running…unless he’s not showing up at the race which I haven’t seen any reports on. This is the category Sastre might go after, he can’t TT with the big hitters. Also look for the Little Prince here.
I agree, Vino is interesting. I was on the Champs when he won the final stage in 2005; no one saw it coming…it was perfect. But he always implodes during one of the high mountain stages. I think that is why he will end up in third, behind Kloden and someone else, perhaps Levi. Expect the unexpected this year, sprinters hanging on in the high mountains, climbers winning sprints. I’ll always watch the TdF, doped athletes or not. It is such a beautiful spectacle and so fun to watch, I can hardly wait!
Dave in VA
My two cents worth…
Rasmussen is still dealing with the effects of a broken femur last fall and was not in “very good” shape at the Giro, which is fine. However, a badly broken femur is a badly broken femur.
Cuneo isn’t racing the Tour.
Boonen has never finished the Tour, why start now?
Ale-Jet peeked for the Giro, he’ll barely be able to win a stage at Le Tour.
Bob
Levi - If he does win, which I hope he does, the French will pull some rule out of nowhere that Americans can’t win the race 9 years running.
i don’t think an American “won” it last year. 
Ale-Jet peeked for the Giro, he’ll barely be able to win a stage at Le Tour.
Agreed… that’s why I choose McEwen… maybe Thor as my dark horse green jersey.
Levi - If he does win, which I hope he does, the French will pull some rule out of nowhere that Americans can’t win the race 9 years running.
When are they going to win nine in a row? They have to win 8 first. The days of American dominance (with artificial help) are over.
It will be interesting to see the outcome of the Dauphine next week. There are a lot of the major players there. I’m sure a lot of head games will be played out to see who’s a contender and who’s a pretender…
No offense but this isnt the tour of california, Levi IMO isnt top 5 in the tour de france because he is a good climber but not a great one but beyond that hes not going to have the strongest team. His best ever finish in the Tour was 8th right? Di Luca is talking of racing the tour now and if he does i see him finishing top 5 along with Someone or two from Astana but with so many big names, who is the leader and what happens with the others? My surprise for this race, although some will say it isnt based on past performances is (ta dah) Iban Mayo.
Regarding Ale-Jet and McEwen, i didnt think that McEwen got the best of Petacchi before he dropped out of the Giro. I say, if Petacchi stays until Paris he has just as good of a chance as he seems to be as fast as he was two seasons ago.
Thor Hushovd can climb beter than most sprinters, he’ll be a good bet for the all around, Green Jersey. Pettachi is gonna be fast, but not sure if he’ll want to climb. McEwen will, and always gets’er done.
Astana will be firing on all cyclinders, and they have a lot of them to fire. They’ll hit podium. Disco knows what to do, so they should field a good squad, don’t know if Jani B is starting, but Levi has been dreaming of this for a long time.
It will certainly be a good tour!
Levi - If he does win, which I hope he does, the French will pull some rule out of nowhere that Americans can’t win the race 9 years running.
When are they going to win nine in a row? They have to win 8 first. The days of American dominance (with artificial help) are over.
heheh…i knew that would ruffle some feathers.
If Valverde rides it, he’ll win it.
Hey Bobcat -
while it seems like you’ve been watching the racing so far this year - i don’t think you’re paying enough attention to the sprinters - they don’t need to peak the way climbers do… remember 2 or 3 years ago Pattachi won 3 or 4 stages in each of the Giro, Tour and Vuleta. He’ll be in ripping shape for the start of the Tour - but I don’t think he’ll make it over the mountains - he (like Cipo) lacks the motivation for that in France.
oh yea and i kinda think that Tom must have finished the Tour at least once since he did WIN on the Champs Elysees in 2004
It will be interesting to see the outcome of the Dauphine next week. There are a lot of the major players there. I’m sure a lot of head games will be played out to see who’s a contender and who’s a pretender…
All of the Tour favorites are within 35 seconds of Moureau after yesterday. I’m sure all the contenders will be within 30-40 seconds of each other after today’s TT with Ventoux tomorrow. I think it will be an epic climb and a great preview for the TDF.
Too many people writing off Valverde. It looks as if he has timed his training perfectly. He looks good so far in the Dauphine. So, I’ll pick him for the overall in Paris and put Vino second. I also pick him to win the Dauphine even though he’s in seventh right now.
I’m thinking that Vino, while favorite, will not ride the Tour. He has some relationships from the past that will come to haunt him in 4 weeks, and one day. A prediction. I hope it’s not true as he clearly has the skills to win…will his team be able to drag him there? Typically, Vino wins on his own.