Last Gallup Poll Is Out: Bush 49% Kerry 47%

The Coffee Shop
1

The breakdown, if it goes the way Gallup says, gives the electoral count to Shrub. Could be a repeat of 2000 :wink:

Florida=Kerry leads by three
Pennsylvania=Bush leads by four
Ohio=Kerry leads by four
Minnesota=Kerry leads by eight
Wisconsin=Bush leads by eight
Iowa=Bush leads by two

In the national poll, Bush wins 49%-47%, but Gallup estimates that the undecideds will go to Kerry, leaving it at a 49%-49% tie.

The state-by-state is a little weird. I can’t feature Shrub taking PA, but I also can’t see Kerry taking OH. Bush is much more likely to win Florida and/or Ohio and lose Pennsylvania. Given that, if the other numbers hold true (Bush takes WI and IA and wins either FL or OH), the Electoral College will go to the Reep.

I can’t wait for Jesse Jackson to have apoplexy on national television Tuesday night or Wednesday morning if we repeat the electoral college result from 2000. :-))

Giddyup Gallup Kahuna

3

Nahhhh…this useless prognosticating is very fulfilling for me. :wink: Besides, I’m hoping for another electoral college mess, just to see a few heads on the Dem side swell up and explode from the rage.

Lessee…Al Sharpton and Jesse’d be a good start. Then Terry McAuliffe, Ted Kennedy…the possibilities are endless!!

20 years from now, people will be amazed if any presidential election is decided by the end of the first week in December ;-))

Prognosticating Kahuna

4

Poll Pundit Kahuna knows Gallup polls are crap!

5

That’s for sure!! I shall dwell in splendid ignorance for the next 48 to 72 hours, and I shall not read another single poll for the rest of this stinking election.

I feel much better now. Carry on!!

A Clockwork Orange Kahuna

6

In a sick and twisted way I’m sort of hoping Bush beats Kerry on the popular vote and Kerry wins the electoral, that’d be classic.

7

If you REALLY want to take a trip into Never Never Land, follow this: There are more than a few permutations which result in a tie.

In the event of a tie, it goes to the House of Representatives.

The House can select among 3 candidates. They have a couple of useless rounds of voting illustrating that neither side will allow the other to have the White House.

Some Dems break with the party and nominate MCCAIN on the theory that he has bones for both groups.

A couple more rounds of voting show that neither Bush nor Kerry are going to get the job. McCain becomes the compromise PRESIDENT of the United States!!!

This little trip to the Twilight Zone brought to you courtesey of NPR. Hows that grab ya?

8

Well then, you admit that the Electoral College really decides who becomes President? Awesome!! Maybe all the screeching nitwits still yowling about the 2000 election out there will accept your take on things and finally shut up so the rest of us can get some sleep! :wink:

If Kerry takes the EC, he’s President. No debating it.

I could live with the result. Did you accept it when it happened in Shrub’s favor in 2000? Or do you go around referring to Bush as something like “The court-appointed President”?

K

9

McCain, huh? I could live with that one a lot more easily than if Jean Francois Kerry is coronated :slight_smile:

Man, all I know is that the 2nd could set off some serious electoral fireworks! Yeah!!!

Chief Propagandist for Shrub Kahuna

10

Because it decides who is president doesn’t mean I agree with it. As a Californian I think it’s ridiculous that the politicians are totally ignoring 35 million people in this state alone, and it’s only because of the electoral process. My vote doesn’t mean nearly as much as it would have if I was still living in Oregon, that doesn’t sit well with me.

12

Because it decides who is president doesn’t mean I agree with it. As a Californian I think it’s ridiculous that the politicians are totally ignoring 35 million people in this state alone, and it’s only because of the electoral process. My vote doesn’t mean nearly as much as it would have if I was still living in Oregon, that doesn’t sit well with me

They’re not ignoring you. They’re just giving you the due electoral weight that your state, based on population, deserves. It after all doesn’t deserve to have ALL of the say, just a proportionally-correct one.

Having lived in both Northern and Southern California at various points in my career, I’ve always been fascinated with the overweening sense of self-importance that the state attaches to itself. But, it’s like a Granola Bar: You take away the fruits and nuts, and you’ve still got the flakes! (hee-hee)

“Rooting For The Little States” Kahuna

14

Each state gets 2 electoral votes automatically. After that, the Constitution gives to the individual states the decision about how to appoint electors. The periodic Census, taken every ten years, is the final arbiter as to the total numbers of electors given to each state. California and New York and a few of the other big 'uns get more than their fair share.

Y’all are just mad because the Bush advantage outside of the urban areas makes it almost impossible for Kerry to pull off an electoral win this time around. Let alone the slim chance of a popular vote win in this election.

The Dems saw the writing on the wall just as well as the Reps. Shame on them for not trying to build up a steadily-shrinking base and overrelying on an already-stretched-to-the-voting-limit black voting bloc. In fact, given the demographics at play, if Shrub makes even a 5% gain in the black vote, there’ll be NO WAY Kerry can win either the popular or the electoral vote. Most statisticians will tell you that an almost-overwhelming number of black voters went for Gore in 2000. Can Kerry keep that wide of a base, in the face of ever-shrinking numbers of other Dems who have gotten more “red” over the years (declining union membership, Reagan Democrats, gains in Hispanic Republican-voting groups etc.)?

Basically, a hell of a lot of things have to go right for Messr. Kerry to win, and not a hell of a lot for Shrub to keep the White House.

It promises to be interesting this Tuesday.

K

15

“Having lived in both Northern and Southern California at various points in my career, I’ve always been fascinated with the overweening sense of self-importance that the state attaches to itself.”

Since tonight is for fantasy . . .

Orrin Hatch is ultimately unsuccessful in getting an amendment passed to allow the Govenator to run for President.

Disgusted, California secedes from the union. The president calms the nation by comparing California to a “Granola Bar: You take away the fruits and nuts, and you’ve still got the flakes!” Let them go, they’ll be back.

The Govenator says “I’ll be back!!!”

The California Republic rises again!!!

Arnold is elected Govenator of the world’s fifth largest economy.

California uber alles!!

California annexes Mexico to solve both the illegal problem and is energy self-sufficent for the forseeable future.

California is now the worlds fourth largest economy.

Since the Govenator is pro-business, he expands markets into his native Austria on the strength of his personal popularity. Austria seeks and is granted county status. (It is third behind L.A and Orange and is smaller than San Bernardino county.)

The remaining former Warsaw pact nations, envious of Austria’s new prosperty also seek and are granted similar status.

California is now the world’s third largest economy.

Following the traditional need for warm weather ports, the Govenator begins wooing Japan.

In the meantime, the Govenator has had to militarize the border to stem the growing flood of illegals across the Arizona, Nevada and Oregon borders.

Japan is granted annexation on similar terms.

Canada’s request to join California is rejected until it gets rid of Quebec (The Govenator hates those cheese eating surrender monkey psuedo french guys.)

The US enters into negotiations with California. The Govenator will only agree to a new union if the Constitution is amended.

President Arnold declares to the world I am back.

16

Why would you even take the time to read a Gallup poll? They are terrible.

Better to take note of the Redskin’s game.

18

"no it’s not based on weight. if it was then for the 3 great electors of montana, California should get 70 votes.

it is not proportionally correct. if it was the electoral college would be useless and the voters would elect directly.

"

It’s pretty simple Francois. Each state gets as many electors as the sum of their Senators and Representatives in congress. California has 2 Senators (as everyopne does) and 53 Representatives, so they get 55 electors. The number of Representatives is determined by population. So tell me how the electors are not determined proportionately according to population? We’re not a democracy, we’re a republic of States. The people don’t elect the President, the States do.

19

Because it decides who is president doesn’t mean I agree with it. As a Californian I think it’s ridiculous that the politicians are totally ignoring 35 million people in this state alone, and it’s only because of the electoral process. My vote doesn’t mean nearly as much as it would have if I was still living in Oregon, that doesn’t sit well with me

They’re not ignoring you. They’re just giving you the due electoral weight that your state, based on population, deserves. It after all doesn’t deserve to have ALL of the say, just a proportionally-correct one.

Having lived in both Northern and Southern California at various points in my career, I’ve always been fascinated with the overweening sense of self-importance that the state attaches to itself. But, it’s like a Granola Bar: You take away the fruits and nuts, and you’ve still got the flakes! (hee-hee)

“Rooting For The Little States” Kahuna

They are too ignoring me. First they are categorizing me as being “Californian” simply because I live where some white man drew imaginary borders around the land I live in and called it California a couple hundred years ago. Then they are ignoring the fact I voted Libertarian by having a “winner take all”, which creates over a hundred million losers, instead of a proportionally represented government. The people in the swing states are the people that actually matter. Voter education is much more of a reality in places like Oregon, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, etc. while people in California, New York, etc. aren’t having attention paid to them. Nobody has asked me if I’m registered, or if I have any questions regarding the candidates while I’ve been in California, NOBODY. While on a trip this summer I had three seperate people in New Mexico alone asking me to register and my pseudo-girlfriend in Oregon tells me it’s hard to take a walk around town in Corvallis without having several people making sure she is registered and doesn’t have any lingering questions about the candidates.

Californian’s are not the only people with self-importance issues, that’s an issue humanity itself faces, just take a look at how we treat the Earth and all the other life-forms on it.

How would a popular election not be the most “proportionally-correct” way to hold this election? Why not just revert to a 3/5 vote, but this time for people in urban areas, we’re slaves to the machine anyway.