Lance2Landis flaws

I read the new Walsh’s book last night. It wasnt a bad read and it was definitly informing and even sad at some points (the openning story especially) about how tough the lives of pro cyclists are. However, I see some major contraditions in the logic of the author that I would like to discuss. The essense of his arguments in the book is summarized below, and lets assume that each point is investigated and has 100% credible evidences to back it up.
(A) Lance was an average in the pro field of the grand tour, especailly in the mountain stages, and it is not likely that anything but drug consumption can explain his dramatical post-cancer improvements. This is based on Ashendon’s and WADA research. so basically lack of consistency between his 99 results and previous results

(B) Lance confessed to two doctors (Never identified), in presence of a handfull of people, in a hospital room back in 95, that he had used a variety of performance enhancing drugs. Frankie Andreu and his Wife, and the Oakly rep were Walsh’s sources of this hospital room incident. This is highlighted as one of the newly revealed evidences in the book.

(C) Testing positive for using EPO during 1999 tour. He accuses Lance that he won 99 tour on EPO.

Okay, here are my concerns assuming (just for the sake of assumption) that all 3 points made by the author are true.

1- If (B) is true, then Lance had been a dopper even before cancer so nothing had changed for him and therefore how can EPO and other drugs be credited for his performance improvements ? EPO was well known and widely used even before Lance did his first Tour and if he admitted using it in the hospital room, he had given this weapon a try, why it didn’t work in 94-95 and then it suddenly did wonders in 99 ?

2- If (B) is true, and if the allegations of Walsh trying to relate Lance’s testicular cancer to abuse of banned performance enhancing drugs is also true, how likely is it that someone goes back to the same shit which had pushed him to nearly the edge of death and hanged him there for a year? It’s not likely that any sane person touches fire for the second time after getting burnt once. Shouldn’t he have been the first person being concerned about doping and his cancer if he had been a doper ?

3- (A) questions the consistency of Lance’s 99 Tour with the previous ones and (C) makes allegations about 99 Tour. Ashendon tries to say that science doesn’t predict such improvements without performance enhancing drugs. The fact is, those improvements for whatever reason did happen and consistently continued for seven years, so if drugs were the cause, then he MUST have cheated for every single tour he won afterwards. He repeated those performances over and over again, unless EPO once used, changes the athlete for ever and its improvments are permanent, it is not likely that he had cheated all the time. His Olympics results, although he didn’t win was not bad either, and there has been much tougher drug tests for that event, the man had improved, admit that!

4- such performances should have made all the authorities more vigilinant about this athlete. It is like one theif stealing from the same bank 7 nights in a row. How incompetent should the guardians of that bank be not be able to catch him or even detect him.

5- lets assume Lance was dopped, we know that Ulrich was dopped and so was Basso. Still Lance won, now how do we justify the advantage of the winner to two other riders, knowing that all 3 of them were doped to the fullest ? He repeatedly says that the Peleton was too fast in 99, so that means everyone was dopped, and then he suggests that Lance’s advantage to others was because of doping! Duh you just said everone was dopped, how can that be an advantage ??

I am NOT a Lance fanboy by any means and I am not saying that he raced clean. I am simply as agnostic as before about this whole thing after reading Walsh’s book.

regarding your #2

Because two things happen close together in time does not imply a causal connection, although I see you are just using that as an assumption because Walsh argues they are connected…

It’s funny that I hear all this stuff about the peleton average speeds going up once EPO hit the stage( I agree somewhat, but only slightly), but I think that the invention of the race radios have done more to increase average speeds, than any drug could have done. Before radio, breaks would escape and stay away. There was no exacting measure of where guys were, and timing the catch to hit in the last 5 or 10k. Out of sight, out of mind, but now the peleton charges with confidence that they will catch most of the time… That, and the bikes are 5 lbs lighter now…

Don’t forget in the past the early parts of stages were essentially cruises and when their was a Patron they went at his pace until the right time. Famous story about a break going early and Hinault chasing it down, and then shouting down the members of the break who then cruised back into the peloton.

What is even more non-sense is comparing the speed of the peleton for two similar stages of two different tours without considering the dynamic of the race, the weather, the crashes,…

Things may have been that way because nobody could tolerate 21 hard days without hermatocrits of exactly 50
.

Not sure why doping would have much to do with his cancer (#2). Walsh tries to explain why doping is not as effective on all athletes in his recent interview on Competitor radio (podcasts). Apparently EPO is more beneficial to athletes that have a naturally lower hematocrit (??).

Just got the book today and I’m looking forward to the read. I’m sure I’ll walk away feeling much the same - still unsure what to believe.

"I am simply as agnostic as before about this whole thing after reading Walsh’s book. "

Well, you actually supported the author by buying/paying attention to his work.

You are right about one thing: The author doesn’t know anything about what exactly was/is going on.

And no, organized doping is not like braking into the vault of a bank seven nights in a row.
It is more like identity theft.
And yes, you can get away with that pretty easily.

That’s true, but his natural level of hematocrits had changed from 94 to 99 ? Walsh said he doped before and after cancer, what made it work the second time ?

so did I buy Lance’s book, the prices were also surprisingly similar here, that makes me 50-50% on the stake and therefore purely agnostic!

Losing 10lbs and shifting to a higher cadence to make use of the 02?

=)

Things may have been that way because nobody could tolerate 21 hard days without hermatocrits of exactly 50
Maybe…or maybe kids grew up learning to be respectful and thus listened to the older riders…or the fact that TV coverage came on later in the day so most teams didn’t see the use of starting a breakaway when the sponsors name would be on TV. (I got both of those from articles about riders from the mid-80’s back)

Muscular adaptation and muscle fibre type decomposition are also suggested by his pro scientists along the list with the two reasons you mentioned as his winning cards. Walsh and Ashendon on the other hand claim that his weight did not change much (his body composition and shape did but his weight didn’t) and his VO2Max also remained the same. They suggest that his claimed increased power/weight ratio of 18% (8% of it attributed to his weight loss) cannot occur because of muscular adaptation stimulated by training, considering that he had been a well trained athlete before. It certainly is a topic to be discussed amongst the experts, all I can do is read and try to understand.

It is always tricky to say what can and cannot be done with a human body, each one is unique.

We certainly didn’t see an asinine explosion of muscle mass like barry bonds with lance armstrong. I think the clearest indicator that he was doping was that he was burying about 10 other guys, who were also at the top of the sport, and doping. It seems unlikely anyone would be such genetic freak that they could dominate under such circumstances. But, it is not impossible.

I am not saying that he didn’t dope, all I am saying that Walsh’s claims are mutually exclusive and cannot all be logically true at the same time.

indeed, i agree
.

what I can’t understand is why Lance would admit to anyone that he would do something illegal? Why would he do it after chemo? In front of Frankie and his wife? Maybe Frankie, but not the wife… Not the Oakley Rep. Amazing.

Well you might admit it to the doctor if he says he needs to know or you might die.

I am not saying that he didn’t dope, all I am saying that Walsh’s claims are mutually exclusive and cannot all be logically true at the same time.

…otherwise known as: Throw a bunch of crap up on the wall and see what, if any, sticks…

This is a question, as I am not old enough to remember Lance as a triathlete. But at 16 years old(and a professional), wasn’t LA beating pro triathletes twice his age regularly?

Maybe he really is that once in a million genetic freak?