I got into a debate with a pro triathlete last night about my contention that if he chose to, Lance could enter Ironman this year and with minimal traing win the race. The knee jerk reaction I always get is that other cyclists have tried ( Udo Bolts, Chann, Larsen etc.) and have had limited success. I am not saying that pro cyclists are better than pro triathletes and could just jump in and dominate. I am saying that Lance is special case. He is the greatest long distance time trialist in the world and while Chann is a great cyclist, he has never been considered a time trial specialist. Lance also has a background in swimming and as Brent L points out so much of swimming is tecnique. Guys like Larsen will always lose time because they lack the swimming tecnique of the top pros. My final assumption is that the current state of Ironman racing is based on sitting in the lead group and conserving energy until the run.the top guys wont chase because they will assume Lance will blow on the run. Here are some numbers:
Last year Deboom swam 52 minutes. Chann swam 55. I am assuming Lance would swim about the same. Deboom biked 4:45. Helriegal had the fastest split at 4:34. Thomas is a great cyclist but we are talking about Lance Armstrong. I give him 10 minutes on Hellriegal(remember Larsen put 14 minutes into Thomas the year before). That means Lance comes of the bike 18 minutes up on Deboom. I think that is conservative since guys like Hellriegal have had 13-14 minutes gaps at T2. Thomas also averaged 24.4 miles per hour. Lance has won Tour time trials at over 30mph. Obviously he would back it off a notch based on distance and having to run afterwards but even 25.4 mph gets him 10 minutes. Tim ran 2:50 last year. Could lance run 3:08? I think so. Larsen ran 2:56 at Lake Placid for his first Ironman win and said he did it off little run training. I know Hawaii is not Lake Placid( Ive done both races) but I think Lance is the toughest mental competitor in sports today(maybe Tiger). I know I am probably going to get flamed on this one but its Friday so why not.
Very interesting question. Do you mean could he win today, or do you meen if he trained he could win. If you mean today, I think he would drown before he made it half a mile. From what I’ve heard I don’t think he incorporates any swim training in his workouts. (He has no reason to) If he trained for it, that’s another issue. The answer, maybe, but probably not. He does run in the off season, and apparently is still good at it, though I don’t know if he could do a marathon. While you said that swimming is about technique, he has had so much time-off that I don’t know if he could come back fast at all.
Either way, from what I have heard, he intends to take the sport back up after his Tour days are over, so we’ll probably find out.
Uhh, no. Not as he is currently training for major stage race cycling. They don’t do any running. They get off the bike, they get a message, they eat, they rest. You won’t see any pro cyclists smeaking off after stages doing a quick 8 mile run.
Ask Steve Larsen how hard it is to learn to run off the bike. I know a pro cyclist doing triathlons in the SE that has had a very difficult time with the running. Like Steve Larsen, he has had injury problems. After so many years of training on the bike, the legs just won’t take the beating.
On the bike, cycling Ironman is different from stage race cycling. Lance won’t have the US Postal Team leading him to the mountain they are going to launch him up. Riding to race 112 miles without shelter is very different than what he is training for. Their longest time trials are about 24 miles? Jacky Durand could maybe do it well, but not Lance.
Swimming, yes Lance has the technique. He was a top swimmer when younger. He also lost very much upper body muscle during chemo. And pro cyclists tend to end up with upper bodies similar to eight-year-olds- sprint specialists being excepted. 2.4 miles in 50+ minutes takes a little umph. I don’t know how quick he could get that back.
Now if he quit stage racing, and turned to triathlon only, and trained a good two years for Ironman maybe. TDF is about racing three weeks, saving energy, using your teammates to work for you, getting time on the climbs and short TTs, while not losing it elswhere. Ironman is about 8 hours going as fast as you can hold. There is no tomorrow. Of course we will never see this. Why give up millions of dollars a year to earn maybe a hundred thousand?
For the guy who previously wondered about trolls…THIS is a fine example…
Nonetheless, I believe that, if he set his sights on it, Lance could win IMH. But not as easily as has been suggested. In fact, I’d love to see him give it a go. It would be a unique achievement when combined with his cycling palmares.
Actually one of Lance’s best TT’s was 36 miles at 34mph. I agree its not 112 but try riding 34 mph for 30 seconds never mind 1 hour 7 minutes. He didnt have any teamates sheltering him that day. Larsen told me that the year he won Lake Placid his training consisted of hard pro road races including U.S Pro champs in Philly. He said after riding that fast all the time the Ironman pace 24-25mph seemed comfortable and then last year while training like a triathlete the bike felt harder. This year he seems to have gone back to his bike racing roots and It is showing in his Ironman bike split at NZ. Even though Lances TT efforts are shorte they are far more intense. It is similar to hard intervals in the pool. After swimming some all out 100s drop your pace back a couple notchs and it feels like you cruise all day at that pace. I have a feeling Lance’s “all day cruise pace” on the bike is quite high.
lance swims in the off season… so i think he could get that back pretty quickly… Running 26.2 off the bike is tough… In the dirty duathlon he ran low 6’s to win. sure, its not kona… but pretty talented if he can run that fast off road with minimal running… Could he win? In endurance sports Lance can do just about anything he wants to.
Great post and you have pointed out some solid numbers that would indicate that it is within the realm of the probable that Lance armstrong could win IMH right now!. However, I will say outright that he would not.
A couple of things: It was a very long time ago that Lance was a triathlete. Although, in his favour he was a very good one. He has a completely different body now than he did back then. All the years of cycling, the cancer and the recovery from cancer have changed his body dramtically. To his gain he is much leaner than he was years ago, so he may be able to run OK.
With a little bit of work he could swim mid 50’s just as Mcrae did last year and he would rip up the bike( possibly 4:10 - 4:15 yikes!!), but the IM run is an unruley beast that can bite back hard and fast - even to world class athletes. I think that Lance would have to be clear by close to 20 minutes to hang on for the win. Hellreigel and Zack have been tracked down with 14 min leads at T2. The strong runners in the race would not let the lead grow to this level.
Remember triathlon is about three sports and the ability to put all three together on race day. Prowess in one activity will not win the race. I have known 2:12 marathon runners who have been completely humbled in an IM, and I am a believer that this has been and remains a runners race.
Firstly mentally tough athletes. The strongest athlete over the last 12 months that has consistently performed globally is Paula Radcliffe.
Debut marathon 2.18.56
30.01.09 Euro 10k record no pace makers
14.31.41 5k Euro
2.17.18 marathon in Chicago for a new world record
2003
World 10k best 30.21 on the road in PR
New world marathon record 2.15.25
So lets not limit mentally tough athletes to male cyclists and golfers.
That said I like the post but I dont think Lance could do it today, I’ve no doubt that with 6 months running under his belt at the very least he’d make it interesting but today no way.
You know hes coming out of the water today 5+ minutes down on DeBoom, Brown et al, he’s not got the build and while he might have the technique, he certainly has zero swimming strength at present.
So you figure he’ll ride 15-20 minutes faster than DeBoom et al but you know he’s coming out probably close to 5 mins down meaning he’s off the bike 10-15 mins up.
With no training that means running a sub 3.05 marathon for it to come down to the wire and a 3 hour to hold them off.
No way, he cant run 3 flat off the bike with zero training, dont see it.
Like I said though, in 6 months that would be a whole different story.
Of course, all of this is academic, and probably related to the upcoming bike race season in Europe and the craziness it engenders. :), I’m with you, DUDE!
However, assuming Lance runs now in the off season, I think that with 6-9 months of swim and run training he would win the race next year barring training difficulties and problems during the race. (Those are pretty big exceptions.) Swimming and running will need lots of work. I don’t see him swimming 55 or less now unless he was a pretty awesome freestyler as a kid. Also, I see him biking under 4:10, and possibly going under 4:05 depending on winds and how hard he thinks he can ride. The IM is very tough, but it is no match for Le Tour de France! You are talking about mind-numbing pain-a 20 on a 1-10 scale. 26-27 miles per hour for 4 hours would be an uptempo ride for Lance. I agree with the others that running pace would be the major stumbling block. But, with what I see as a 20 minute plus lead off the bike, I think he’d win by 5-10 minutes.
But, he won’t be doing it this year, and COULDN’T do it this year with the other training he’s been doing. It is too late to switch gears and be ready. He would have to build to long runs (10-16 weeks) and would probably need at least 26 weeks of speed work to get the foot speed he’d need to run 7 minutes per mile, or less, on the marathon.
Why would he do the IM? He wouldn’t make one-tenth the money he’s making now and we all know most of the rest of the world cares a lot more about bike racing than triathlon. Frankly, to do so would be a rookie move.
I have to agree with Paul Cusick. Lance could win this year in KONA with a good final 2 mile kick if he showed up. If you ever go to a master’s swim workout, there is always some ex competitive swimmer who hops into the pool after a 15 year hiatus and is still swimming 1:20 sets for 100m. I think Lance can easily get back to the sub 55 range. This guy was beating Allen and Pigg as a 16 year old. Upper body strength for swimming is overrated. Look at Simon Whitfield. The guy has no upper body and comes out in the lead group at ITU races ! On the bike, 4:10 easy even on a windy day. If Hellriegel could go 4:30 in his rookie year at KONA on a super windy day in 95, then Lance can easily go 4:10. Lance has leg speed on the run. Again, as a 16 year old, he was beating Allen. With 6 weeks of run training, I am pretty sure he can run sub 3:10 easy, likely sub 3. So worst case, 53+4:15+3:10+5 = 8:23. I bet you if the likes of deBoom are closing with 2 miles to go on the run, Lance can dig deep and hold them off. ~8:20 has been good enough to win in the last few years. There have been no consecutive sub 8:10 years like when Allen was cleaning up. With one year of tri training, I put Lance at sub 8 hours with a 2:50 run and a top swim split.
The idea of Lance doing IM races in his future has crossed my mind. Like Cobb says he is just on loan to the roadie world right now. In an interview at the Dirty DU he was asked why he was participating, his response went something like he can’t race bikes forever but he will do this type of stuff ie Multisport. I think as long as he is competitive in the TDF you will not see him doing many Multisport events. But look out when (and in my opinion not if) he decides to get back into it. I doubt he could win IM Hawai today but top ten, maybe. With some time to train everbody will be trying to catch the man in blue.
You guys talk about his upper body, watch some of the races while he is in the peleton, he is one of the most muscular riders. But then again that is compared to as somebody put it the upper body of eight year olds.
Well he may be in his forty’s by the time he quits racing bikes but I still think at that time he will be very copetitive in Multisport events.
Lance could win Kona handily with a little tri specific training. Somebody mentioned that he has a different body now than he did in his career as a triathlete. Indeed he does, but that will not hinder his swimming. Keep in mind that after going through what he went through, the neither the TdF nor Kona offers quite the challenge to him as it does to others. Lance suffered terribly during his cancer treatment, and going through that gives him a mental edge that none of his competitors have. He can and will win Kona when/if he gets ready.
I think I read (maybe on this forum) that Bolts did Kona on something like 9 training runs. Wasn’t his time in the sub-10 hour range? If that’s true, that’s remarkable! Imagine what he could do with a season of tri specific training to go with his years of competitive cycling?
So I think Lance would have an excellent shot at winning Kona. And he wouldn’t do it for the money. He doesn’t have to do anything for money anymore! He would do it to simply for the challenge.
BTW, what kind of races did Lance do as a triathlete? Did he ever do an Ironman?
The orginal question was could he just jump in and win it, even with minimal training ala Bolts. My answer to that original question is still, no!
Now if he was to take a year and focus on triathlon, and baring injury, my answer shifts to yes. Unlike others single sporters who have tried ot talked about this, Armstrong has serious multisport credentials. As others have pointed out hew was cometeing against the likes of Mark Allan and Dave Scott in the mid/late 80’s. To my knowledge he did not race anything longer than an Olympic distance tri back then.
If he does have a go at it, and he has hinted that he MAY do so, it certainly will be exciting and intriguing. Althuogh, I would not be surprised if he does not take on the challenge. Professional cycling is extraordinarily draining, both physically and mentally. One would think that he has earned the right to relax and enjoy life and his family to the fullest.
First to clear up a little confusion - Lance wasn’t racing AGAINST Marc Allen / Dave Scott in those races - he was racing / winning juniors…at least according to the book I’m assuming we’ve all read. No offense to LA’s abilities, but a 16 year old beating those guys in the mid to late 80s is something I’m not sure Superman could have done. Don’t forget, that while these guys were dominating IM distances, Marc Allen also won Nice, a short format race, 10 years in a row…
Secondly, what also becomes clear from Lance’s book is that he is the greatest endurance athlete of our time (or maybe of any time) thanks in large part to an inhuman LT. He can basically go all day at levels that would leave mere mortals hospitalized. The domination would have been there no matter the sport. The fact that he went into cycling instead of triathlon for a living simply means that he ends up making $15 million per year instead of scrambling for sponsors (don’t forget he made $2 million per year BEFORE the cancer and TDF)
That said, I firmly believe that Lance could win Kona with 18 weeks of prep - a standard marathon training period.
generalizations about Lance being the greatest endurance athlete of all time show no respect for other athletes that have dominated their sports at the same if not higher level for longer periods of time.
Haile Gabreseillese (sp?) dominated track and field on the road and track, indoors and out.
Steven Redgrave 5 olympic Gold medals at 5 consecutive olympics.
I know none are as hard as winning the tour…blah blah blah blah.
Why not stop the comparisons and simply appreciate the athlete because you cant compare the accomplishments.
Maybe I should have added some context to my comments about my declaration of LA being the greatest endurance athlete of our time. In my mind, success in endurance sports has much to do with a given individual’s LT. As Joe Friel likes to say about IM racing - “It’s not about going the fastest; it’s about slowing down the least”. The bottom line is that LA slows down the least. As stated in his book, he has tested higher for LT than any other athlete ever tested at the US Olympic training grounds. So perhaps a better statement is that he was born with the POTENTIAL, based on his genetic gifts, to be the greatest. That’s not to take away from any other endurance athletes who dominated the sport in their time.
Now of course, there are thousands of athletes who have never been tested, and thousands more who lived and raced before people knew what LT was, but I think there’s a good case for LA.
It also begs the question I find myself thinking about now and then. How much is an athlete a product of their time? What would have happened if Michael Jordan was born before basketball was invented, or Jack Nicklaus & Tiger Woods before golf? Would they have risen to the top of another sport? Would their competitiveness be enough to lift them to the top of another profession?
KK 3 of the 5 fastest marathons ever recorded, 3 times under 2.06 and the most incredible kick ever seen in distance running period epitomised by his run in London last spring.
I think you’re placing way to much emphasis on one aspect of an athletes arsenal. Clayton as I suggested earlier and Brent L pointed out had a Vo2 of 69 and change, Lances when he was tested was 70 after cancer. Clayton was a WR holder in the marathon and broke 2.10 twice more than 2 decades ago (might be longer but cant be sure off the top of my head).
I think its fairly well accepted that Vo2 is more important than LT and that LT unlike Vo2 is completely trainable, the earlier you start the better you’ll be. (Although I think the proviso to that was that LA’s Vo2 dropped while undergoing treatment and he was only able to raise it back to the level pre-cancer. In effect he had the same engine post cancer minus 20+ pounds)
I dont know where Lances Vo2 or LT is documented nor any other elite athletes so I dont know how one could comment on it but I’d suggest that KK and PR are working far closer to their LT’s than Lance does at any time other than during a time trial.