It would be interesting to see his bike split in an IM race. BUT also is the question…do they do 110 mile TT’s? Not that he couldn’t adapt but I am sure he is used to doing a fair share of his long rides in some sort of draft pack. Just topic fodder…
That’s a very good point. Steve Larsen was obviously cut out for it, but Udo Bolts and Chann McRae were not able to post the best bike splits in their races. None of those guys are LA, though. It probably wouldn’t be too hard for him to master the discipline, but you never know.
This would be great to see. I think that LA was a Texas state champion in the 1500 meters as an age grouper. After taking 18 years off from swimming and only swimming once a week for about ten weeks, I am only swimming 500s about 90 seconds slower than in college. I am no Lance Armstrong so he should be one of the fastest guys out of the water with only a few months of pretty minimal training.
He might have lots of support in the bike, but on some of the mountain stages, he has to do an aweful lot on his own, maybe a couple days in a row. Some of these stages are longer than 112 miles.
So, this will put him as one of the fastest, if not the fastest, after the bike. He can focus primarily on run training and bricks. Could he hold on? How much would he have left? Wouldn’t it be great to see?
I don’t think LA will ever be a pro-level triathlete. He could have been, certainly. But, he has many other interests besides seeing how much he can achieve athletically. I think he’ll retire from being a pro cyclist, whenever he chooses to do so, and might go several other directions with his life…such as cancer treatment and research awareness, to maybe just enjoying his fame a bit and hob-knobbing with the “stars”. He really likes Shiner Bock beer, and is liable to gain quite a bit of weight when he gets off the bike and relaxes a while. As long as he doesn’t get carried away with the “easy” life (which can be quite hard on a person), he’ll always be within reach of returning to sports like Triathlon at a high level of performance.
So, it’s not that he can’t be an excellent Triathlete, I just don’t think that’s the direction he’ll go, at least, not for a while. I predict it would be a “come-back” to endurance sports after a period of relative inactivity, if it were to ever happen.
This opinion and 50 cents will get you a local newspaper in some towns.
You’d have to include Ironman Champion Karen Smyers to the list of top triathletes having a go at the stand alone marathon. I believe she qualifies as a “legitimate” runner as she posted a 2:42 at the 1988 US Olympic Marathon Trials in Pittsburgh and only missed the QT by only :24. Also, she has one of the fastest women’s run splits in Kona at 3:05…not too shabby for an ex-collegiate swim rat.
Alan Culpepper won the Olympic marathon trials. He’s not exactly a small person, although he is quite thin. How does Culpepper’s VO2 max compane with Lance? Obviously for Lance to be a serious competitor as an elite marathoner he would have to lose weight. However, if he had the same dedication to training for a marathon that he has for TDF, I think he could be right there with the best U.S. marathoners. We’ll never know though and it’s all just pure speculation.
Don
Ryan Bolton put triathlon on hold to accept a track and cross-country scholarship to UW, as I recall. I believe that he was All-American. I don’t remember hearing about him running 2:20 but it would not surprise me.
yeah, instead of that commercial showing him boxing, they shoulda shown him coming out of the water and shedding a wetsuit. there’s been lots of predictions about him becoming a triathlete again, especially with the growth of the sport and the increase in sponsorship $$$. triathlon is the next evolution of cycling sport and lance will be the catalyst. we’ve got all these sick freaking aero bikes and an ex-triathlete 5 time Tour winner getting close to quitting the pro cycling game… hmmmmmm? como se dice “perfect storm” in espanol? Just wait and soon they’ll be saying “Armstrong entering T2 in the lead!” over the loudspeakers at Kona.
Triathlon is one of the few, if the only sport where an average joe can go toe to toe with the world’s best. you can line up next to Reid in the water, but you can’t play against Shaq or cycle against Hamilton. Having armstrong in triathlon would be awesome cuz you could actually race him. you’d lose, but you could do it.
I know several people have mentioned Lance’s VO2 max as being so great. Well, it’s very good, but not as good as many others’. What LA DOES have is a very high tolerance for lactate, and he seems to produce less bloodstream lactate at levels very close to his VO2 max, compared to others.
Plus, he’s tried and tested chemotherapy-busting tough. Unless you’ve been through it, you just don’t know how bad it can be. I’ve seen it crush people’s spirits to the point they never mentally recover, even though they physically beat the cancer. They become fragile shells. He got tougher as a response to the challenge, although he was very tough before…
I’d predict a 50 min swim, 4hr bike and a 2:30 marathon. Add 20% to that and he still wouldn’t suck. The naysayers can’t even imagine how good he is. Most of us if we trained all our lives would have a hard time nearing a 30mph average for a TT, let alone those tight twisty and quite hilly Euro ones.
It is interesting that Lance is made up to be this god like creature of the VO2 max world. Funny that Greg Lemond’s was 92. To keep this on topic, most of the more famous american marathoners only had VO2 max’s in the 70’s. However, Steve Prefontaine had 84.4 as his. So 85 infact isn’t god like but it is pretty damn clost. BTW, the highest recorded was a russian cross country skiier who had a 94. Crazy.
I remember reading somewhere that Tim DeBoom’s VO2 max is/was 89. I don’t think that’s the most amazing thing about Lance, I think he is one of the few (or only) that got the whole package, that’s what sets him apart.
Chris
Funny, according to Sheryll, he doesn’t have that great of a “package”
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2:10! you must be out of your mind! sure they run a lot faster than that now…but look pre e.p.o. in '87 there were a handful (like 4?) runs under 2:10, and they were by real class athletes. now to say a great cyclst with some triathlon backgrund who is apparently ‘clean’ of drugs can turn around and run under 2:10 is pure crazyness. it’s unbeleivable to even suggest it.
in 1999, prior to taking up triathlon i was a good runner and ran 2:16.00. i know what iit takes to run fast and be clean while doing it. to run fast all day is just so different to being a cyclist, as accomplished as lance is, he’d run under 3…maybe 2:40
Lance wouldn’thave to HANG with Peter Reid on the run. Maybe at the end, but I’m guessing Lance would be off the front and try to do Like Bjorn on the run. Given Lances cycling credentials, as well as his past tri abilities, I think he would hang on a bit longer than Bjorn. Regardless of the outcome, I would LOVE to see Lance have a crack at IM and see what happened. Maybe he could be the first (well after Steve Larsen) cyclist to win an IM.
Who knows though???
I’d be super surprised if Lance ever races triathlons seriously. Why would he? When he retires - I think he will retire = no more competitive sports. How good could he be? Well - compare him to Steve Larsen - Lance could swim a lot faster, bike a lot faster, and probably run faster. Larsen had one good IM race at Lake Placid where he ran about 2:56 - never seemed to put it together for any other IM’s that well. I’d guess Lance could have swum 10 minutes faster, biked - 10 minutes faster, and run 5-10 faster = maybe close to 8 hours flat for Lake Placid…Larsen went 8:33 with splits like 57-4:33-2:56 (I think) that year (2001).
If Lance rested and recovered after the tour, did a couple months of running and swimming and maintained his bike fitness - he would win Hawaii this year - probably by quite a bit - course record. If he retires from cycling - I doubt he’ll ever have tour fitness and he would actually get slower and slower the more he trained specifically for triathlons. Larsen also fell into this trap and had by far his best IM race that first year…go figure. Why would Lance want to do this? It would make all the pro triathletes look bad, it would be a very brief (wow - look at what Lance did - couple day affair) - he wouldn’t get much money for him compared to other things…
Stand-alone marathon - he could go sub 2:30 fairly easily - get close to 2:20 if he trained a lot. I doubt he’d get much faster than that.
How fast could he time-trial 112 miles - now thats the question. How big of a lead would he have going into the run?
Dave
his cycling vo2 means nothing for running. I’ve seen high cycling vo2’s in the lab and the guy fell off the treadmill at 8 min miles. same with running and swimming. going fast is about specificity of training. he might have a huge tolerance for lactate cycling but running maybe not. if I remember correctly his triathlon running was hang on for the win not come from behind a few times to win fast. hell I’ve outsplit him running when he was a pro and I’m at best a jogger by running standards. 34:40 10k PB
Exactly right. I thought I was the biggest Lance fan around but I guess I was wrong. Some of the posts here sound like a “da bears” skit on SNL. “Lance in the Indy 500 driving the USPS team bus… Gotta take Lance”
2:20 is damn fast. 2:10 is unfathomably fast. Lance is great but not that great. 2:40 stand alone? Maybe. 2:50 or 2:55 in an IM? Maybe, though I doubt we’ll ever find out about either. I predict that when he quits bike racing, he will spend ten years drinking beer and screwing pop stars. I know that’s what I would do.
haha u guys make out as if he is the greatest athlete EVER!!!
hed go nowhere near 2.10. 2.40 if he was lucky.
if it is all based on vo2 max…imagine what would happen if cross country skiers decided to take up triathlon. hah
Lance’s high school running PRs, according to letsrun.com discussion forum (80% chance they are accurate):
1600 = 4:29
5km cross country as HS junior: 15:36
On October 28, 1990 Lance did a Coors Light Biathlon (Duathlon) in San Diego, which consisted of a 5k run, 16.4 mile bike and and a 5k run and finished 2nd to Brent Steiner (8:46.99) hs. 2 mile and All-American in x-c and the 10k at Kansas.
His first 5k was 15:47, he then had the fastest bike split avg. 27.5 mph and closed the 2nd 5k in 16:46. He must have been 18yrs old at the time. He was beaten by Steiner by a total of 41 seconds.
According to the above, and McMillan Running Calculator, Lance’s potential for the marathon =
MARATHON = 2:31:25.
Note, however, that this estimation is based on his HIGH SCHOOL JUNIOR times. Maybe he had more pure leg speed then, but his VO2 Max, LT, etc. are certainly far superior now. And he DOES run in the off-season (did a mtb duathlon last year for fun, winning the thing). My guess is he would do a 2:50 marathon leg after a world-leading bike split… and he was a national-class age group swimmer as a kid, too, don’t forget…
TALENT!
Lance’s high school running PRs, according to letsrun.com discussion forum (80% chance they are accurate):
1600 = 4:29
5km cross country as HS junior: 15:36
On October 28, 1990 Lance did a Coors Light Biathlon (Duathlon) in San Diego, which consisted of a 5k run, 16.4 mile bike and and a 5k run and finished 2nd to Brent Steiner (8:46.99) hs. 2 mile and All-American in x-c and the 10k at Kansas.
His first 5k was 15:47, he then had the fastest bike split avg. 27.5 mph and closed the 2nd 5k in 16:46. He must have been 18yrs old at the time. He was beaten by Steiner by a total of 41 seconds.
According to the above, and McMillan Running Calculator, Lance’s potential for the marathon =
MARATHON = 2:31:25.
Note, however, that this estimation is based on his HIGH SCHOOL JUNIOR times. Maybe he had more pure leg speed then, but his VO2 Max, LT, etc. are certainly far superior now. And he DOES run in the off-season (did a mtb duathlon last year for fun, winning the thing). My guess is he would do a 2:50 marathon leg after a world-leading bike split… and he was a national-class age group swimmer as a kid, too, don’t forget…
TALENT!
That is very intersting! … out of my stomach i would´ve guessed something like that (his potential marathon-time), too…
Those who suggest he can run 2:20 … or even 2:10 … well, no offence, but that is rediculous…
As someone pointed out Allens attempt…
And Bolton… that guy can really run… and can not go near 2:15…
If Lance could run 2:31… that is already a very impressive time!
Regarding his chances on IM i agree that he would be a real contender… a totally other thing compared to the cyclists who have tried so far…
I´d say he can get his swimming up fairly easily… i´ve know tons of ex-swimmers who years after still outswim me on very, very little training…
Cycling… well, we all know that he can cycle… going 4h? … mhh… i don´t know… that is very steep…
I could see (completely without beeing able to back that with proof) him run sub 3 maybe sub 2:50…
That would put him in the race. Thinking he will easily break the record… go sub 8 … and alike… i´m noz convinced. Other great single-sport athletes have thought so before… IM isn´t that easy… and the top-triathletes are great athletes, too.
Axel