“…to run 3:30ish on race day if I don’t do something stupid.”
The first thing that comes to me is to have the utmost respect for the LP course! It has a lot of ways to test you and drain you, and if you have pushed yourself too hard on the bike (which is very easy to do) you will pay for it on the run. Just for comparison, if this helps, my best stand-alone marathon is 3:29, my Boston was 3:55 in the '04 heatfest, and my LP “run” last year was 4:40; these were all accomplished when I was 54/55, and my fitness was quite solid.
The early downhills at Boston and LP are not similar. At Boston it’s on fresh legs and there is the massive pack to help you regulate your effort. At LP the hill begins immediately out of transition, it’s steep, and the only thing that will regulate you is your common sense. I had done this descent a few times prior to race day, so I took it very gingerly and I’m sure my quads and knees were thankful. Fortunately, this descent is only about 1/4 mile long, then it does a short climb and for the next couple of miles you’re into mostly flats. As you approach the base of the ski jump before the turn onto River Road there is another fairly steep descent, but you’re loose at this point and don’t need to be cautious on this one. River Road is flat to rolling, although a couple of the rollers caught my attention and at that point I knew I was going to be spending more time on the run than I had hoped. (And I had run this route a couple times previously.)
Coming back, the base-of-ski-jump hill is tough, the steep hill with the 90-degree turn in the village is tougher. I made it a point to run both of these and I succeeded — at least on the first loop. The out-and-back on Mirror Lake Drive is a nice respite, then you’re back to Main Street, the crowd is going nuts – and it’s off for round two. This time around, that steep descent is much easier on the legs, but I’d still caution against any tendency towards overstriding.
That’s the short of it, I guess. The course does allow long stretches of getting into a feasible rhythm, and I hope that’s what you are able to achieve on the 24th. It didn’t work for me last year, but I had gone harder on the bike than was wise. I was especially foolish to “attack” the final five miles of the bike as I did, where i’m sure that I did that stretch more quickly on the second loop than I did on the first loop. The bike course is hardly designed to give your legs any break by being gentle towards the end, and the final mile or so from Northwood School to transition just isn’t enough to recover if you’ve pushed too hard from Wilmington until that point.
I hope some of this helps. It’s an awesome (in every sense of the word) course, and I hope the day goes great for you!