I thought it might be interesting to take a snapshot of how Kona start demographics have changed over the last 10 years. I prepared the chart below that shows how the various AGs compare in 2003 to that in 2013. I thought the various qualification rule changes (KPR system for pros, more qualifying races with fewer spots per race, Legacy, XC, etc.) as well as the general evolution of participants in our sport and at WTC events might very well change the composition of those who toe the starting line. The results were a bit surprising in some cases but confirmed some other hypotheses.
Some of my major take-aways from this data include:
The overall number of slots has grown significantly over the last 10 years: + 23%
The number of slots for Pros has decreased dramatically. this is true absolutely (down 35%) and proportionately (from 7.9% to 4.2% of the field)
The women’s field has grown faster than the men’s (32% vs. 20%) and this has shifted the men/women ration modestly from 75.4/24.6 to 73.5/26.5
The male age groups between 25 and 39 years of age have all significantly declined in both absolute terms and proportionately (from 34.6% to 23.6% of the field)
The female age groups between 25 and 39 years, while growing, have grown slower than the field at large.
The fastest growth rates are in the ages 45 and up–this group has grown from 27.3% to 40.6% of the field.
Both the median and the mode has increased five years from the 35-39 YO AG to the 40-44 YO AG
The number of starters over 60 has grown by 57% but still represents less than 10% of the field (6.4% in 2003 to 8.2% in 2013)
The proportion of competitors over 70 is quite small–just 1.6% in 2003 and 1.8% in 2013
The number of female competitors over 70 is exceedingly small–1in 2003 and 3 in 2013
analysis… the demographic shift to older and more women likely due to fewer slots at each race and each age group being disproportionately weighted (ie. smaller AGs still get a slot, etc.)
first question: obviously fewer slots due to more races due to increased demand… is the demand in the older AGs and female AGs? I would say mostly, except that M25-34 are getting fewer opportunities based on their demand signal.
next question: what has this done to the qualifying process, the race, the industry and WTC bottom lines, and the sport in general?
thankfully, I’m a beneficiary of the median and mode shifting… I’ve been riding the wave of the biggest AG since I started as a 30-34yo
I agree that the larger number of Q races with smaller slots per race does favor very old male AG and female to some extent. The legacy program probably favors older athletes as well, although that may be a couple of year (2012-2014?) blip until the backlog is worked through.
I think the growth in the 35+ group may be something else. An aging of the sport demographics with increasing expense perhaps or a higher growth in WTC IM events for this cohort due to expense and/or time…
I think this is good for the WTC’s bottom line. It makes for a modest slowing trend in median and mean times at Kona…
It certainly means less opportunity (at least at Kona) for the pros, especially the back of the pack pros…
I’m surprised by the lack of M/F shift. At the sprints I go to I frequently see 65/35 or 60/40. This has not seemed to filter up to the IM distance or Kona at the very least…
social economical data for Kona will be hard to find I imagine…
Clearly, racing at Kona is not for the economically disadvantaged. By the time you account for all the equipment and training expenses, the travel and entry fees for at least two races you can easily exceed $10,000 (and quite a bit more than that). As it’s become harder to qualify and the sport has grown, it stands to reason that the less well off are getting squeezed to some extent.
This probably explains the greying of the field at Kona to some extent…
Not to nitpick, but comparing just two years doesn’t have much statistical significance. What’s to say that one or both of these years wasn’t an anomaly?
It certainly means less opportunity (at least at Kona) for the pros, especially the back of the pack pros…
It would appear that the reduction in pro slots by 48 would be enough to “fund slots” for one additional IM event, as well as 48 additional paying Kona AG participants.
Assuming the 2,120 participants is getting close to a maximum for the pier, I wonder if we would see a reduction in slots in some of the more popular NA races from 50 to 40 or even 30 (more in line with non NA races) for use in WTC’s expansion into emerging markets.
Simple explanation. in 2003 a LOT of slots used to roll down in the younger males age groups. Now there are finally at a couple old women taking their automatic slot just for showing up.
I also find it amazing that we’re getting to a point with the depth of some of the faster male age groups, where you could finish in the top 10 among overall amateurs, and top 25 including pros, and still not qualify.
I’m not sure what my point is, just that it’s getting crazy competitive in some age groups at popular races.
If every AG is represented, that’s 28 different categories. It’s just absurd. There will be 1 slot per AG soon if more races go to 30 slots. It has to be time to get rid of 5 year age groups.
The ratio of over 50 to under 30 used to be 3:2. Now it’s at 5:2. In 20 years this sport won’t exist anymore! Who wants to go to a World Championship in a sport where the average age is 45 and increasing? Golf is doing better than Ironman in this regards. I’m 31/F, around this sport for 6 years, and I feel young at IMs and 70.3s. This is now “my dad’s” sport. No wonder Tough Mudder is going gangbusters (average age: 29).
If every AG is represented, that’s 28 different categories. It’s just absurd. There will be 1 slot per AG soon if more races go to 30 slots. It has to be time to get rid of 5 year age groups.
The ratio of over 50 to under 30 used to be 3:2. Now it’s at 5:2. In 20 years this sport won’t exist anymore! Who wants to go to a World Championship in a sport where the average age is 45 and increasing? Golf is doing better than Ironman in this regards. I’m 31/F, around this sport for 6 years, and I feel young at IMs and 70.3s. This is now “my dad’s” sport. No wonder Tough Mudder is going gangbusters (average age: 29).
When I was in my 20s, there was no way that I would’ve been able to afford to do an Ironman if they cost what they do now. And there’s no way in hell I would’ve been able to travel from the US mainland or a foreign location to Kona for the IMWC. WTC can’t expect to have a very large pool of potential younger AG participants when it costs several thousand dollars to do a race. Hell, my wife and I are both decently paid professionals with no kids, and I cringe at the cost of triathlon and wonder if it’s time to move on to ultrarunning or something.
I have mentioned this in the past, IM is a sport that appeals hevily to an aging demographic, I think we are very close to if we haven’t already reached the peak of growth, this is a great time to be an owner of IM as older athletes have more money and are much more profitable, where we will be in 10 years time is fairly obvious and I predict the venture capital people will have sold out by then.
I’m not sure I’d share your conclusions. While the ratio of 50+/under 30 has gone from 1.56 to 2.47, the number of people who race Kona has expanded by 23%, the number of people in the USAT has doubled, and the number of people completing an IM has gone up by some number in between. If the increase in that ratio is an indicator of the sport’s demise then empirically why do we see these growth rates? Indeed, the number of people under 30 doing Kona has actually **GROWN **by 13% between 2003 and 2013–hardly an early indicator of the imminent demise of the IM specifically and the sport generally.
As to your question “Who wants to go to a World Championship in a sport where the average age is 45 and increasing?” Firstly, the assumption in your question is probably false–the data I presented is for Kona and is clearly not representive for the sport as a whole–if I had to guess I’d say the average age is well below 45 and probably not increasing. But let’s assume you meant the average age at Kona (by the way, the MEDIAN age is between 40-44–as you know the median is different that the average)–my guess is that most of the people on this forum want to go to the world championship at Kona as due the vast majority of the people in triathlon. The ratio you sighted as well as the aging of the KONA population probably never crosses their minds.
I haven’t seen demographic data on golf but looking at the folks at my country club and at the triathlons I go to I’d say Golf has a much older and way more male demographic.
I’m old enough to be your Dad and damn right it’s my sport–sign up for one of my races and we’ll see who can get around the course faster!
By the way, give it a few years and you’ll be with the folks you are slamming in this post…
Pokey–for sure Providence will have exited their investment in the WTC within 10 years. Their business model calls for exiting their investments in under 10 years and they’ve already been in it for a while now.
It will be interesting to see where the sport goes from here although I agree that it will be hard for it to maintain the tremendous growth of the last decade. The continuing aging of the US population, societal orientation towards fitness, the expense of the sport, changes in liesure time, our economy, alternatives to triathlon, improvements in the race experience, etc. all will impact our sport. How it all plays out will be interesting to see.
If I had to predict I’d say that the sport as a whole will still be as important as it is today (not very), will have more fragmentation, will be a more mature business in the US, but perhaps growing in non-traditional markets…hard to say.
I do think Kona will still be The Race for at least the next decade and probably longer…
“When I was in my 20s, there was no way that I would’ve been able to afford to do an Ironman if they cost what they do now.”
Ditto that. The average 20 something year old burdened with student loans may find it hard to come up an extra ten grand or so for IM. At least with running its the great equalizer because all you need is a pair of shoes. IM is more or less a rich whte boy/girl activity comprised mostly of the upper middle class. But we’re seeing the same thing in other activities. I started scuba diving in my 20’s but nowadays less people in that age group are getting into it due to the cost. My dive shop owner tells me that not that many younger people are getting certified these days compared to thirty years ago unless they’re trying to use it for their resume to get onto the police force or something. In our day we dived for the fun of it.
I agree with another poster that IM may finally be peeking. My wife is probably doing her last one this year. I retired from racing three years ago when I hit 60, but am thinking I may get back into it and try for a Kona spot when I turn 70,
Yes, the average age at my golf course is also getting older each year, in fact I had a client of mine say that 10 years ago they joined a my club because the prediction was that they would never get in if they didn’t act then, Fast forward 10 years and they have lowered equity stake to join club and local clubs are having to ofrer incentives to keep dues up.
I think the younger generations have a much broader range of sporting options then past generations and they are also smaller as a group. Getting back to IM, I think endurance sports as a whole are not as popular now as they were for us in our 40’s, I wonder what this looks like for the marathon?
Pokey: I grew up in the running boom and I can tell you that people were at least a lot faster then they are now. When I was in my early 20s I used to bang out 16 minute 5ks and finish 25th in races–today (at least here in DE, 16:XX would win just about every one…) Not to BDB, but there you go.
If running/marathoning has plateaued it sure has done so at a high level. Running is so much more easy for folks to get into. This past weekend I did a Sprint triathlon in VA, which was a big one at 492 people. then on sunday, I did the cherry Blossom 10-miler where there were 17,747 starters. there will never be a triathlon anywhere close to that, and that’s a modestly important race.
Triathlon is a niche sport. It wasn’t always one but it grew into that status recently. that’s the best it will ever be.
Which is one of the reasons I love it! Plus I can still kick lil’ 31 YO lady’s butts…
I’m only speaking to the Kona data you give here, not triathlon in general (which I have to imagine have very different demographics than the WC). Nor do I think that Kona or interest in it is dead, obviously that’s nowhere near true, but I do think some writing is on the wall for the next decade at that distance as the participants in it get older each year. Will in 2024 will the median AG be 50-54? Can that possibly be good for the long-term health of the sport/distance?
You say the number of Kona participants <30 have increased by 13%. But overall participation went up by nearly 26%, so younger generations are either being squeezed out (if more older people sign up for Ironmans in general, more slots go to those AGs, naturally increasing their representation at Kona), or opting out (if fewer <30 people signing up for Ironmans then those AGs will get less slots, again leading to smaller relative Kona participation). If it’s the latter then that’s a big problem as those people won’t be at Ironman when the 40+ racers inevitably stop racing at some point.
FWIW, the median age of a marathoner in 2006 was 38. In 2012 it was 37. So that sport isn’t seeing nearly the same increase in age (I know Kona is just data point but the way slots are allocated it’s indicative of Iron-distance age distribution).
This is not personal to me- I am not Kona bound and am a one-and-done Ironman. I don’t doubt you would beat me soundly at any distance. But as I see so few of my peers going into triathlon, especially long-course, and so many of my tri club members being even older than I, it does make me wonder what’s down the pike. And it does seem to be funny that people hope to get old so they can eventually qualify for an athletic world championship. That surely has to be unique to Ironman.
