FYI…Kona slots have been added to the Rhode Island 70.3
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Well, that is one way to increase the popularity of a race. I am curious as to how many signed up prior to this news, and how is it doing compared to last years numbers.
Mike
Well, that is one way to increase the popularity of a race. I am curious as to how many signed up prior to this news, and how is it doing compared to last years numbers.
Mike
Great. Now my crap performance is going to look that much worse.
Very interesting move by WTC…
It will be interesting to see is some other races lose some of their slots or if the field in Kona
starts to grow in size. Not a lot of space left on the pier for additional bikes.
The race must not have had too many signed up…
It will be interesting to see is some other races lose some of their slots or if the field in Kona
starts to grow in size. Not a lot of space left on the pier for additional bikes.
This is my concern as well. IMO, and I know it is not shared by all, I wish that there were zero slots available for Kona at 1/2 IMs. IMO, they should be adding to the existing IMs. If these slots get taken from the full IMs, that will be the biggest eptiome of suck.
It isn’t like the 1980-90s anymore where a 10’ish will get you a ticket to the big show. I am planning for sub-10, targeting 9:30, stretch-9, and I am worried about not getting a slot in CDA in the 35-39. IM Kona slots are slowly becoming the realm of the non-professional professional. You start reducing the number and those qualifying times only go down even faster.
With the way things are going, within the next 5-10 years qualifying time will be all 9-9:30 for sub-60 age groups.
Huh? Last year 10:10 was the last slot at CDA in the 35-39 AG. And the conditions were perfect. And even if you allocate one or two fewer slots due to an overall reduction in slots, you are still talking about 10:08 or so. So, if you are planning to go sub 10, maybe even 9:30, and possibly even 9, then you are set. In fact, you would be the fastest amateur at around 9:20. Anyone who is within reach of fastest amateur has no problem qualifying.
Huh? Last year 10:10 was the last slot at CDA in the 35-39 AG. And the conditions were perfect. And even if you allocate one or two fewer slots due to an overall reduction in slots, you are still talking about 10:08 or so. So, if you are planning to go sub 10, maybe even 9:30, and possibly even 9, then you are set. In fact, you would be the fastest amateur at around 9:20. Anyone who is within reach of fastest amateur has no problem qualifying.
I hear what you are saying David, but I think everyone is going to be in for a rude surprise this year. Look at the 100/100 as an example. Last year had how many finishers that made it to 100/100? I don’t remember exactly but I know it was a handfull. Look at this year. With the mass proliferation of high tech gear at prices that was (was being the key word) within the price range of the masses, I would expect this years time to drop across the board significantly. With the popularity of Triathlons growing, you will see the “field” get faster. With the a big portion of the field now made up of people who grew up in a time where it was socially acceptable to pursue endurance activities and not be considered a freak, we will see times go down. With more widespread knowledge of training techniques, times will go down. With…get ready for it…more proliferation of doping by AG’ers, times will go down.
Look at IMAZ.
10:07 Last Qualified in the Spring '08, 9:44 Last Qualified in Fall. You could argue that it was better conditions. I don’t think so. I think this will be the clear trend seen throughout this year. A drastic lowering of qualifying times.
It will be interesting to watch IMNZ Qualifying times. I bet it is going to be ugly…ugly as in smoking fast.
IMFL '07 9:34 last Qual / '08 9:27. While 7 mins may seem to be a small amount, at that level of performance it isn’t.
Trying not to hijack the thread here, but I would suggest that the IMAZ phenomenon can be explained 70% by weather, 20% by change to November (and thus more athletes at peak form) and 10% due to overall improvement in the “field”. I will restate my prior post in a different way. I will bet any amount of money that if you go 10:00 at CDA this year, you will qualify. And, again, if you are good enough to say that 9:00 is only a “stretch” then you have no problem whatsoever.
Separately, I like the idea of more 70.3 races with qualifying slots. I find that it is pretty hard to go two IMs in a year. Get in great half IM shape in July, then go longer in October. It’s perfect really.
I will restate my prior post in a different way. I will bet any amount of money that if you go 10:00 at CDA this year, you will qualify. And, again, if you are good enough to say that 9:00 is only a “stretch” then you have no problem whatsoever.
Separately, I like the idea of more 70.3 races with qualifying slots. I find that it is pretty hard to go two IMs in a year. Get in great half IM shape in July, then go longer in October. It’s perfect really.
I hope you are right 
Though I wouldn’t say “stretch” lightly. To me that means if I hit on all cylinders on a “good” day and everything is perfect. But thats a different subject. I am actually very glad I am gunning for Kona this year as I do feel that this will be one of the last years you will see near-10 Qualification.
As for the more 70.3s, I know a lot of people feel this way. I just think as it would be silly to allow you to qualify for Boston in a 1/2 Mary, so is it for a 1/2 IM to Qualify for Kona.
On a side note, I bet the Kona Slots to RI 1/2 has more to do with the economy than anything else and the silly idea of thinking it is recession proof.
Rhode Island only had 1200 racers last year (compared to 2200 at Florida 70.3) That is 1000 less people so $250,000 less income in entry fees. WTC would like to see all it’s events with 2500+ racers at $250 a pop It is much cheaper to run a 70.3 race than a IM (like 1/4 of the cost) Which means more profits b/c there is a much higher number of 70.3 races that can go on in the USA compared to the full IM’s before the market is saturated.
IMNZ (M35-39):
Last Qual slot in '08: 9:53 (11th)
Last Qual slot in '09: 9:44 (Assuming 11th is still the last spot)
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I don’t think that on the balance qual times are going to substantially change in any age groups. It is not like the human gene pool suddenly mutated and it is not like suddenly dudes figured out how to race Ironman faster. You’re going to see more or less similar qual times. They might vary 5-10 min due to conditions, but pretty well the guys of similar ability will qual at races.
If you don’t believe it look at Kona times. Its not like age group top 50 times on one “good wind year” are that much better than “other good wind years”. On bad wind years, you just cannot compare.
A friend and I had a conversation on a similar topic at our Friday work sponsored social thing Beer/Finger foods. His contention to myself and some of my other coworkers was to push our kids to really go all in for soccer if they are interested and show athleticism. Why? Because he said the “talent” pool in soccer is still at a state where a naturally gifted “normal” athlete still has a chance to go far in the United States. He went on to state that soccer still does not get the best talent because basketball, football, and baseball are getting the most gifted athletes.
I see a similar parallel to triathlons but also some other factors that mean the talent pool for triathlons are getting faster quicker than soccer will. I outlined the logic a little above but the key points are:
Better race equipment for the masses. Face it, most people are rockin wetsuits designed for swimming, pretty aero gear on the bikes which helps speed things up.Better training techniques. With the web, the proliferation of training studies being released and info consolidated into easily found and cheaply purchased places (Lore of Running, Going Long, etc…) that info is making us all faster. I would say even Slowtwitch is playing a part in this as it is a fantastic free resource for anyone willing to browse.Better nutrition: Energy Bars, Gels, Inifiniti, custom, perfected blended sports drinks, etc…Better acceptance. As with the soccer example above, previously triathlon didn’t really get the most talented athletes as it was considered a fringe activity. With our annual Emmy award winning Kona broadcast, triathlons are becoming main stream and more importantly “accepted”. Parents don’t discourage their kids anymore. Most people know what triathlons. With sprints and shorter distances, tris are booming in popularity. With that popularity will come better athletes.A “generation” of triathletes that has grown up and trained in the above “accepted” state. Why do you think the 40+ AGs are getting so fast? Because they were into tris even back when this sport wasn’t popular, but they are beneiftting from everything above AND now have decades of “base”. Think about these same AGs once people who have grown up with the new advances in gear and technique and started earlier and were given more support? You don’t think they are going to start knocking out faster times? Guys who started 10 years ago at Age 20 are now 30 with a decade of advanced training and gear. What will they be like when they hit the 40+ AGs?Like I said, I am glad I am gunning for Kona now. In a few years, 5-10, my $$ is that we are going to see a significant lowering of “average” times for the high AG’ers. Pros not so much, nor the mid-/back of Packers. But the top of the AGs are becoming more and more “Pro-like” in every way. 20-30 hpw training, the best gear, coaches, Wind Tunnels tested, Power Meter monitoring. Basically high end AG’ers have access to and are utilizing the same stuff that the guys in the TDF have.
I just don’t think there will be a significant growth in the number of elite amateurs doing 20-30 hours per week. I just don’t think many of your comments about the change in the sport and the overall outlook is going to happen. It’s still a niche sport and, if anything, the number of amateurs who can afford to work part-time and do 20+ hours per week will likely decline over the next five years due to the economy, etc.
I believe that the typical American Kona qualifier in the 35-39 or 40-44 AG will remain the same. He will be working a little less, but still fully employed, he will be a few years past having a few toddlers to take care of, he will be passionate and knowledgeable about the sport, and will be consistent and smart in his training. I went to Kona in 2008 with three other friends. We all fit the profile I described above and are 9:45-10:00 IMers. There is very little chance that any of us will do 9:20s or so, and I just don’t think the times will come down so much that that kind of performance will be required.
Roughster, you’ll see. Do your 9:45 at IMCDA this year, and you will have 15-20 minutes to hang at the finish line at watch all of the other Kona qualifiers finish in your AG. Stop worrying…
I think David is correct. The top end age grouper times are not about to change. Guys at the top end of the pro and age group ranks have pretty well had the gig nailed down for 20 and 15 years respectively. I can pull up my 1993 Ironman Canada results if you don’t believe, or pull up Ironman Canada results from 1997 the earliest year that sportstats goes back. The times are just as fast as now.
What is different is that there are more guys that can do 10:10 to 10:30. The questions is: “How many of these guys show up at your IM race vs another IM race and how do you perform vs the other guys”. If you show up at Ironman Lake Placid and do a 10:1x in 40-44 you’re going to need a rolldown, but you are pretty well in. 10:2x gets you in at 45-49. You’ll need a 10:0x in 35-39. Granted this race is a bit slower, so slice of 10-15 minutes for other non florida races and you are in for Kona.
Anyway, my suggestion is to quit worrying about Kona. Rule number 1 about going to Kona is don’t think about it until you cross the finish line at your qualifier race. Just focus on the best possible race you can do. Once the results go up, you’ll know where your PB race put you in the context of the others who showed up.
Dev
"Roughster, you’ll see. Do your 9:45 at IMCDA this year, and you will have 15-20 minutes to hang at the finish line at watch all of the other Kona qualifiers finish in your AG. Stop worrying… "
Roughster, I wrote this to you several months ago. It looks like I was part right, part wrong. A 9:45 defiintely gets you to the Show, but doesn’t give you a 15 minute cushion. How did you do? I don’t know your real name.
David
9:34 took the last spot for M30-34 at CdA this year. That is wicked fast for the last spot.
I will restate my prior post in a different way. I will bet any amount of money that if you go 10:00 at CDA this year, you will qualify. And, again, if you are good enough to say that 9:00 is only a “stretch” then you have no problem whatsoever.
Separately, I like the idea of more 70.3 races with qualifying slots. I find that it is pretty hard to go two IMs in a year. Get in great half IM shape in July, then go longer in October. It’s perfect really.
I hope you are right Though I wouldn’t say “stretch” lightly. To me that means if I hit on all cylinders on a “good” day and everything is perfect. But thats a different subject. I am actually very glad I am gunning for Kona this year as I do feel that this will be one of the last years you will see near-10 Qualification.
You kind of called yourself out here. If you are even suggesting that you cold possibly go 9:00 on a perfect day, then 9:30 should be easy. It is not like you lose 30 minutes for being a less than perfect.
Like the other poster said, it doesn’t make any sense for someone throwing out 9:00 as a potential time to be worried about an AG slot to Kona. If you are this fit and do not qualify you are the Phil Mickelson of triathlon.