The other day, I was thinking about how most games of chance I’ve encountered (McDonalds Monopoly, Ohio Lottery, etc…) publish one’s odds of winning. However, I don’t recall seeing one’s odds of winning the Kona lottery. I’m really curious how one’s odds for a $35 “regular” slot compare to one’s odds for a $85 “Passport Club” slot. Is this information available somewhere?
(This is purely to satisfy my curiosity because I don’t have the time, $$$, or fitness level to go to Kona, and yes, it did come to mind today because of the title of Frank’s post.)
I thought I read they get about 4000 general lottery entries. And they draw 100 from US and 50 from other countries. So if you are US,that’s roughly 2.5% chance. Not terribly bad, really.
Then it depends on how many buy the passport option where they draw another 50, right? So depends on how many do the “upgrade”. I’d guess maybe 1000 at most do that? So that option raises your odds to 5% chance.
I could be completely wrong about these numbers.
by the way, it works. I won a lottery slot this past year. I asked if I was drawn from general or passport, and they wouldn’t/couldn’t tell me. Just that I was drawn.
definitely spend the extra money for the passport club. everyone that i met this year who had won a lottery spot with me had done passport club.
you do also realize that it’s not “random”. if you’ve got a special story, or something that grabs their attention, you’re more likely to be selected. getting the passport club increases the odds of them seeing your application and picking up on the extra parts
It’s a random drawing of X slots from Y number of entrants. They can’t know the odds becuase they don’t know what Y is until registration for the lottery closes.
The odds increase if you have any of the following, Terminal disease Overcame a terminal disease Had a recent death in the family Carry a picture of deceased family member around your neck Actor/Actress/Sportsman/Model Have a very supportive spouse and he/she has any of the above and carries a picture of you around his/her neck Have discovered what is really important in life and are willing to talk about it on T.V and cry while discussing it
It’s a random drawing…
Random…right. Like all other IM events, write them a sob-letter, raise money for a cause, or be a celebrity and you all but guarantee your chances of getting in.
This may help with understanding Kona lottery odds. I received this information when I asked a couple of years ago.
In 2001 there were 2833 US entrants - 2275 Passport and 558 General. 100 winners were drawn from the 2275 Passport members (odds of winning 1:22.25). The losing Passport members were then added to the General entrants from which 50 more competitors were drawn (50 from 2733, odds of winning 1:54.17).
Internationally, there were 901 of which 25 winners were drawn from the 481 Passport members (odds of 1:18.76), and then 25 more were drawn from the remaining Passport and all the general entries (odds of 1:34.56)
In 2004 we had the following: there were 2,584 U.S. passport applicants, 840 U.S. general applicants and 2,484 passport applicants rolled over from the first drawing. There were 568 internaional passport applicants, there were 382 international general applicants and 543 passport applicants rolled over from the first drawing.
All data from the Independant Agent for the Kona Lottery
Price Donoghue Ridenour
29605 U.S. 19 North, Suite 140
Clearwater, FL 33761
Didn’t know that… was wondering though cause I know a guy from Delaware that has hit the lottery 4 out of 5!!! No kidding! 80%!!!We were wondering about the state thing. Maybe I should do the lottery next year…
I’m not sure that an athlete from each state is selected is true anymore. I stated that on this forum a year or so ago and ironclm corrected me on it. If it were still in effect I would put state of confusion!