Kiss the 100K Silverman Relay goodby

Triathlon Forum
1

In perfect conditions, I would give Tyler’s team 10 to 1 odds.

Well, it ain’t going to be perfect. Check out the weather forecast for the Lake Mead area.

Odds now, 100 to 1.

Rode 60 down on the course today. Checked out the swim course. The swimmers can expect once they clear the small boat ramp harbour and hit the open lake, heavy chop and occassional whitecaps out of the north (the course is out-and-back around an island, E-W, so crosswind chop both directions). I don’t see anything under 42 if the forecast holds true (I think it will after living out here for over 20 years).

The cyclist’s then have a 1 mile climb from the lake up to Lake Shore rd. Averages around 4%. Not too bad. Just a wicked wind blowing from the north forecasted 15-25 with gusts to 35. Windchill in the upper 30s or so to start. Again shouldn’t be too bad since it’s only 1 mile and all cross wind. Then, once up on the main road, with 111 miles to go, right into the teeth of the wind. Then the fun starts. There will be no peloton in this baby. Just you, the hills and the hills, and the wind.

To have a shot at the prize, the cyclist has to, IMV, come into T2 with no worse than 5:30:00 elapsed time in order to give the marathoner a shot. This will not be like any marathon any of these guys have ever done. There will be no pace rabbits or a pack of competition. It too will be most fitting, a marathon TT. I figure 10% slower than PB.

I think the RD would be smiling right now. Keep this thing going with a bigger pot for next year. Who knows. But anything can happen. The forecasted winds can maybe blow through quicker or moderate. These are incredible athletes. Maybe one of the teams can do it. So we shall see.

If the forecasted winds do blow however, I will feel bad for the rest of the field, especially the AG’ers doing the whole Enchilada. A 30% attrition rate would not surprise me. If I was in the race, I would prepare to do the best that I could with the approaching conditions, just to survive. Since I am going to merely spectate and vollunteer, I will cheer all on, but inside, will be glad not to be out there.

2

I just finished dropping my bike off in T-1. It definately looks like it’s going to be a long day. However, world class single sport athletes are spectacular in their own element. Since we’re in Vegas, I’d definately take you up on the 100 to 1 odds! I have a 10 spot on the super elites.

BTW, If the winds are more easterly than northerly, and if they build through the day, it’ll be a slightly quartering tail wind for the last 100k.

3

I will take your 100 to 1 for $10 if you really believe it…

4

Sounds like Swedish weather to me!

5

I would love to see those 3 swedes win this gig.

6

I would too. Who here wouldn’t at ST.

But I truly doubt the teams are saying, “yep, perfect conditions, just like at home. It’s in the bag.” I pray that it doesn’t gust tomorrow. The course alone is brutal enough. But even 10-15 mph winds is far from ideal. Particularly hitting those venturi winds in the hills.

Without question, the folks saying how easy it will be to do it, even under perfect conditions, have never ever ridden this course.

Obviously not impossible, but superhuman, yes.

There is a reason why Dave Scott called this bike course, the toughest he had ever ridden.

7

It’s in the bag.<<

Just a guess, but I don’t think Jonas or Bjorn would ever say it’s in the bag, no matter the projected weather conditions.

clm

8

Sounds like Swedish weather to me!

I’m hopin’!

9

First thing’s first: I can’t see based on the profile how that course has 9,000 feet of elevation gain…looks more like 7,000 to me. I’ve taken elevation profiles using delorme topos before, and it seems to me that they often overstate elevation gain/loss-has anyone measured this course with their own GPS, or even Barometer?

Tyler has much more at stake than the $50K or so he’ll make for this race. He needs to demonstrate he’s back on form so he can get picked up by a decent pro tour team.

I also don’t think the weather will be as bad as you say…far from ideal, but not a disaster.

My Prediction: Tyler puts 15 minutes on Bjorn, but comes in on the bike only a bit under 5 hours (4:50???). Whether his team makes or breaks 8 hours will depend on Kimeli. My bet is that they do it, but will only have 5-10 minutes to spare.

Stan

10

You’re right, the weather has moderated. Outside now, pretty much calm to a very light wind with clearing skies. Forecasting now for tomorrow, north wind 10-15. No more talk of those 35 gusts. That is very good news.

It still ain’t no “gimme.”

Will get out to the start early to watch the swim and relay send-off.

Then vollunteer. Then maybe ride a bit. Then off to T2.

I’m not even racing but am really looking forward to tomorrow.

11

Also, you can believe the 9000. I use a Forerunner 201. Only rode 60 today (about 35 on the course). Although I didn’t download today’s ride, from previous downloads of the same ride, did around 5000 feet climbing. I ride the Lake Mead area all the time so don’t bother anymore checking vertical gain anymore. Why bother because I know it is there. I don’t need the exact numbers anymore. Out here there are no flats to speak of. The training pays off come racing season.

Plus the RD doesn’t need to BS anyone. He will tell you what it is and no more.

12

In perfect conditions, I would give Tyler’s team 10 to 1 odds.

Well, it ain’t going to be perfect. Check out the weather forecast for the Lake Mead area.

Odds now, 100 to 1.

Rode 60 down on the course today. Checked out the swim course. The swimmers can expect once they clear the small boat ramp harbour and hit the open lake, heavy chop and occassional whitecaps out of the north (the course is out-and-back around an island, E-W, so crosswind chop both directions). I don’t see anything under 42 if the forecast holds true (I think it will after living out here for over 20 years).

The cyclist’s then have a 1 mile climb from the lake up to Lake Shore rd. Averages around 4%. Not too bad. Just a wicked wind blowing from the north forecasted 15-25 with gusts to 35. Windchill in the upper 30s or so to start. Again shouldn’t be too bad since it’s only 1 mile and all cross wind. Then, once up on the main road, with 111 miles to go, right into the teeth of the wind. Then the fun starts. There will be no peloton in this baby. Just you, the hills and the hills, and the wind.

To have a shot at the prize, the cyclist has to, IMV, come into T2 with no worse than 5:30:00 elapsed time in order to give the marathoner a shot. This will not be like any marathon any of these guys have ever done. There will be no pace rabbits or a pack of competition. It too will be most fitting, a marathon TT. I figure 10% slower than PB.

I think the RD would be smiling right now. Keep this thing going with a bigger pot for next year. Who knows. But anything can happen. The forecasted winds can maybe blow through quicker or moderate. These are incredible athletes. Maybe one of the teams can do it. So we shall see.

If the forecasted winds do blow however, I will feel bad for the rest of the field, especially the AG’ers doing the whole Enchilada. A 30% attrition rate would not surprise me. If I was in the race, I would prepare to do the best that I could with the approaching conditions, just to survive. Since I am going to merely spectate and vollunteer, I will cheer all on, but inside, will be glad not to be out there.

Our cyclist, when he saw the winds in training, opted to ride a road bike with clip on aero bars. His bike sponsor had to scramble to get him the bike he wanted here. When we dropped it off there were three Cervelo’s in line next to each other and his, which looked like it belonged to an age grouper (except for the wheels which are pretty unique and which they think will give him a slight advantage over everyone elses wheels). The 5th bike was not in the rack yet.

I heard the two tough things about this race were the winds and the rough roads. The roads have all been resurfaced and are perfect. The winds will be the winds but it seems to me that the overcast conditions should make them somewhat less than normal. I would not be surprised if at least 3 teams broke 8 hours here. I expect this to be quite a race.

Frank

13

I believe Shakespeare wrote a play about this race: Much Ado About Nothing.

14

Just got up at 0345, here in Henderson, NV. Went out on the patio; wind seemed calm, temp at 50.

Odds back to 10 to 1. The NWS forecast that came out yesterday morning was wrong. It has appeared the cold front came through quicker than expected with much less energy. Now we are on the backside of it with north winds today of 10-15. Sky is clear. Winds actually will diminish as the system moves further east (that’s the forecast anyway)

Man, this is going to be a hell of race.

Would have been horible with that first forecast. Thank god that was wrong

Now it’s up to the athletes. Good luck to the relay teams, and most of all, the ones overlooked in all this hoopla, the solo AGer’s.