Florida Governor Crist (R) joins CA Governor Schwartzenneggar in working to reduce emissions and combat global warming. Crist also says there are economic opportunities for doing this.
What is the world coming to?
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1642703,00.html
Yes, another brave politician dictating that something they like will happen ten years after they leave office without saying how.
I can’t believe how courage these politicians are. Who knew?
Why don’t they do something that might really be helpful like outlawing private jets? I am sure our Gulfstream liberals would be happy to do their share.
By the way Fatmouse, I just don’t get it. I keep reading article after article about corn prices rising due to ethanol and putting pressure on all manner of products. As usual, the reporting sucks with no quantification of historic or current prices. Would you have lost that corn price bet you offered some time ago?
If you can find the thread I’ll be happy to look at it. If memory serves, I suggested looking at the November purchase and future’s prices.
I’m still up for the bet, $50 to the charity of choice. Here’s mine, if you’re interested.
I’m not a pro at futures pricing, but the chart I found for December (not sure if they even offer November prices) is down about a dollar from the highs seen in Feb. and June. Again, I’m no pro like the authors of the articles you are reading, but a month-long downward trend doesn’t seem to lend credence to their argument.
Somebody somewhere probably has a good chart on historical data for corn, but most of the online ones want to charge me for them. It’s been a while since I was involved in the stuff, but $3-5 a bushel seems like a “normal” range for corn, which always is dependent on weather much more than demand.
This what you are looking for Fatmouse?
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/...y=t&xhide_news=f
To go even further back though a quick search yields that corn was over $5 a bushel in the summer of '96 and then back to $2 in 1999 and 2000.
What’s the bet that you are discussing here?
edited to remove pic that didn’t come up.
I don’t remember what the proposed bet was, but a glance at Tyrius’s chart indicates you would have lost.
Ouch.
It’s been a while since I was involved in the stuff, but $3-5 a bushel seems like a “normal” range for corn, which always is dependent on weather much more than demand.
I’m no expert by any means and I have NEVER been involved in “the stuff,” but don’t the rules change on supply and demand forces when the us changes? I can see your point about corn being a weather dependant crop, but with the GAS that alot of the farmers are using, drought resistant corn is a reality not a pipe dream. 2 farmers I know are thrilled because of the price they will be able to get for their corn this year, the other one is pissed because he had to plant alfalfa or something.
I have also read articles lately about the price of soda pop and chocolate being increased because of the dramatic price increase in HFCS.
Bernie
I’m no expert by any means and I have NEVER been involved in “the stuff,” but don’t the rules change on supply and demand forces when the us changes? I can see your point about corn being a weather dependant crop
The weather affects the supply. Ethanol is currently affecting the perceived demand. It will be a while before those ethanol plants are online so I’m guessing that there will be many people holding contracts for Nov-Dec delivery that will be priced much lower than they are now.
Cool. The market is wrong and you know why.
You are about to become very rich. I love it when that happens.
As for me, I know squat about commodity prices so I will sit on the sidelines.
**Cool. The market is wrong and you know why. **
You are about to become very rich.
Well, that would be the case if the word GUESS meant to KNOW then maybe. Plus I’d actually have to be a commodities trader. So, it sounds like I’m going to remain poor.
Well, that would be the case if the word GUESS meant to KNOW then maybe. Plus I’d actually have to be a commodities trader. So, it sounds like I’m going to remain poor.
With the love that this happy place exudes, how can any of us ever consider ourselves “poor”? 
"I don’t remember what the proposed bet was, but a glance at Tyrius’s chart indicates you would have lost.
Ouch."
Unfortunately, you were unwilling to participate in a wager that would benefit your favored charity. Ouch to you, and your charity.
Here’s the thread, and my offer:
FM: “Tell ya what. Let’s pull up the November 2007 futures price of corn and we can have a friendly wager on where it will close.” post 49
AF: post 50 is magically blank
AF: post 51 “If I wanted to wager on commodities, I wouldn’t turn to the LR to do it. Never touch them.”
FM: post 55 “I understand your confusion, and likewise, the confusion of the market. But you’re not even willing to do a friendly wager? Maybe of a donation to the other’s favorite charity? Whoever gets closest to the November future expiration price wins.”
AF: not willing to wager
Of course, that point is moot, as I don’t think there is a November future for corn, at least that I can find. I posted the December future price, which is about 60 cents less per bushel (almost 20%) than when we were discussing this in April.
I’ll throw down one last challenge. I’ll pick December futures at $2.85 a bushel when they close (down more than a dollar from when we first covered this and another 50 cents from today). You’ve got the chart I posted, and the one Tyrius posted. Your other sources are saying that corn prices are going up-up-up. It shouldn’t be any trouble to trust your instincts and throw down a number and accept my donation to your charity (as long as it isn’t a political organization).
Note: Ty can get in on this too but he has to give us points. He lives in the midwest and deals with the weather every day. Anybody else want to take a shot?
Next up: we can forecast the cost of propane for the corn drying season.
Sorry, Fatmouse. I just don’t understand these commodity prices at all. The graph from Tyrius above is about my level of understanding. It shows corn prices way above the price from recent years. I expect that trend to continue.
If I knew diddle about commodity prices, I am certain the market has a very clear opinion on that and I would be able to decode market expectations compared to historic prices.
You are offering a fun opportunity for an interesting bet, but I just don’t know enough to even frame it properly.
My favorite charity is the wounded warrior fund. Zero overhead.
Note: Ty can get in on this too but he has to give us points. He lives in the midwest and deals with the weather every day. Anybody else want to take a shot?
You’re going to have change sides on your bet then because I’m not betting that corn will remain as high as it is now. As for the weather it was hot and dry at the beginning of the season, but we’ve been getting some big rains lately. As long as the harvest isn’t too wet we should see big yields.
Hmm. It doesn’t look like the corn cam is working, but the crop looks to be coming along nicely.
http://www.iowafarmertoday.com/corn_cam/
Nearly 75% of the crop is rated favorable or excellent, and ahead of schedule.
**Nearly 75% of the crop is rated favorable or excellent, and ahead of schedule. **
yep, so as long as the weather doesn’t turn terrible during the harvest the yields should be very high. Add to that the fact that many of the ethanol plants will not be on line this year so I don’t believe that the demand will be as high as it has been predicted. So, a big supply and a lower than expected demand should turn into corn prices dropping to at least normal levels.
Cue Art with his stupid comment about “knowing” the future and getting rich.
Hey Ty. We’re getting closer to the Dec. corn futures closing date. I’m starting to get nervous that I overshot on the downside. Fortunately, Art was too much of a pussy to get in on the action. It’s currently at $3.56. I think the closing date is Dec. 14, which gives just under 2 months to get down to $2.85.
Art’s head did, in fact, explode. But I’m filling in for him at least until next Saturday afternoon, when his alien masters will have completed all the work in the regeneration chamber that needed to be done. Until then, you may call me “Mini Art.” 
T.
I have to admit continuing ignorance about the future markets, but I continue to see article after article about high corn prices squeezing out food uses for corn, especially in poorer countries.
I can’t find decent data. Is the corn price way up or not?
It’s both up and down. It’s down about 50 cents from when you were saying it was going up-up-up. But it is also up about 60 cents above where I thought it would be. But we’ve got just under 2 months before it expires.
If you want to look up the charts, just find a site that covers the CBOT futures and look for the December expiration month.
One thing that I’ve heard about recently on the corn squeeze in poorer countries is that there seems to be an underground growth in ethanol plant construction in U.S. protectorate islands in the Caribbean. It is kind of sneaky how they are doing this. Domestic blenders of ethanol get a tax credit. The goal of the tax credit was to increase domestic ethanol production. But because it is the blenders that get the credit, there was a possibility that foreign ethanol producers would be subsidized by U.S. taxpayers. So, Congress enacted a tariff on imported ethanol that matches the downstream tax credit.
Now, groups are importing corn from poorer countries to Caribbean islands. When processed into ethanol, they get to claim it is domestic ethanol for sale in the U.S. and also get the tax credit.
I’m actually surprised that the farm lobby hasn’t gone after this practice to try to shut it down.
“The goal of the tax credit was to increase domestic ethanol production.”
That may be true, but I see it as a bribe to get the oil industry to blend ethanol into their products rather than just mandating a 10% blend and forcing it on them. We forced them to take lead out of their fuels, why not force them to put ethanol in?