Sprint distance, no Tom Davison, Varga in the field, Brownlees’ home turf…can they get away and stay away from Mola, Murray on the bike and then sprint past Gomez on the homestretch? (I’m hoping yes).
Will the Brit women get away on the bike and has Jodie Stimpson’s foot healed enough for a fast run or is it Helen for another win at home…or Gwen…or?
What say you Slowtwitch.
Gomez for the men
Stimson for the women
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After watching last weeks race i will go out on a limb and say that a domestic will play an important roll again in the outcome, both men and womens. Killer B’s are going to be really tough on home turf, if they get a good cyclist domestic in that lead group, time to hold on for dear life. I think the way it played out last time will just motivate them to ride even harder.
Gwen needs to be smart on the bike and hang around 5th to 10th. Stay off the front where she has no clue what to do once thrust there, and the perfect place for an attack against her. Seems like her running is a whole step ahead of the pack right now and she just has to get to T2 even, or a little down on cycling specialists. DO NOT CHASE Lucy when she goes off alone…(-;
Watch for USA’s Kaleb Vanort from the chase pack who will likely have to play domestique duty for himself. He’s a really strong biker and likely one of the US’s fastest runners. He likely may have to put his head down and carry people up to the main pack, and not worry about who’s riding his wheel. When the race is up the road, all you can do is pull yourself inside out in order to make it back into the front of the field.
IF he can make T2 with the front pack, it will have likely meant there is a large group into T2, but also, I think he gets a top 8 finish.
I don’t think the break stays away on this type of course even with Davidson out. While he certainly is/was a prime driver for the chase pack 2 weeks ago, on a flat very “boring” low technical course, the break should catch up even to the elite 8-10 man break (even if it has the 3 best cyclists in the front group).
Men - AB, has to be pissed about fading in season debut
Women - Anne Haug is due for a W (is Non Stanford not racing at all this year ?)
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Is the Hamburg course considered more technical than London? I know the lead group got and stayed away on the bike last year but maybe it’s much tougher than London. I would love to know the Brownlees’ true thoughts from Yokohama…were they a bit stunned at results and now massively motivated, or was it about what they expected based on their training. Inquiring minds want to know.
I think a top 8 is slightly out of his reach. I believe it is his WTS debut and his best world cup result to date (admittedly in a relatively strong field) has been a 5th place result in Mooloolaba. My prediction would be around 15th, maybe plus/minus two spots. Considering that it’s in London I think the Brownlee’s will probably push the pace, giving him little chance to catch up after the swim. It depends more on how that large group coming into T2 forms than just on there being a large group, if he needs to work too hard on the bike then he’ll take himself out of the game in the chase.
I think they would be the first to say, they simply got their asses kicked and give a ton of credit to Murray and Mola for making the gap and driving the run pace and of course there is a great deal of respect with them and Gomez. What they along with Gomez has done for the sport of ITU men’s racing is pretty high class, and they simply got beat by the monster they have created over the last 5 years. The elites in ITU now are just that strong that if you are off by even a small degree, you aren’t going to win.
My prediction is all based on T2 coming together with 50 riders (ETA: which means he needs to swim well enough to get into contact on the bike, if his group cant make contact, it wont matter what he runs, he’s done). If that’s the case, I will call 8-10 for Vanort. There aren’t 15 guys that can outrun him at this level, even after hammering the bike. Yes the top 5 should/will out run him (gomez, Brownlee Bro x2, Mola, Murray). But I don’t see 10 other guys out splitting him on the run.
This is all if they come together into T2. If it’s a 30 sec gap, it’s already game over.
Glad to hear Vanort is still in the draft-legal picture. It would be nice to have a run threat. 2016 seems incredibly wide open for the US men…
Granted we are 2 years away, but this weekends Dallas ITU Patco will be a very good race to see where the big boys stack against each other.
For London, in the women’s race I can’t see anyone getting a big enough lead on the swim to stay away on the bike, which means that barring accidents I would have to say GJ would be favourite. The good news for her is that the weather forecast is dry, 69 degrees and light winds, so pretty much perfect racing conditions. The course has some sketchy corners in the wet, so this should help her to relax and stay with the leaders, even if the bike pace is pushed hard.
Prediction:
Jorgensen, Jenkins, Haug/Norden
For the men I guess there could be a marginal lead for the top swimmers but I can’t see it lasting into T2. The men’s bike leg could be the most interesting aspect of both races and I’d expect all the strong swim-bikers to be committed to a break opportunity coming out of T1 (much more than they were in Japan). This could be Mola’s chance for a win though…
Prediction:
Mola, Gomez, JB/Murray
Spaniards all day…killer B’s are done, home turf or not! Women, I am feeling a dark horse…not sure who!
My, my…how quickly the Brownlees are cast away. Well, when they make their crushing and complete return to total world dominance, it will be all the sweeter 
I would never write them off, and one thing we could see on Sat is AB taking it very slightly easier on the bike, even in a break-away situation. I’m sure he would still do his fair share of pulling, but I think he would want to save a bit more than usual for the run if he can. He went out very aggressively on the run in Yokohama and clearly got burnt. That tells me he’s at least confident in his run but maybe slightly under-estimated the others’ run form. It will be interesting, and I suspect the B’s will get better as we go through the season, especially as the CGs is their target race.
My, my…how quickly the Brownlees are cast away. Well, when they make their crushing and complete return to total world dominance, it will be all the sweeter
Did you see them fade the final 2 miles at Yokohama? They looked, well…human, and defeated!
My, my…how quickly the Brownlees are cast away. Well, when they make their crushing and complete return to total world dominance, it will be all the sweeter
Did you see them fade the final 2 miles at Yokohama? They looked, well…human, and defeated!
But this is a sprint distance so they would have been done with interviews and their cool-down run by then.
I have Gwen and Gomez picked to win. Until someone proves me wrong those are my picks.
I will say this though, Sarah Groff was very fast at that distance last year. She’s my dark horse.
I’ve blocked that from my mind…I still have visions of them Madrid 2011 which is probably one of my all-time favorite races (yes I know it’s actually 2014 now).
I really don’t know what to expect this weekend…Mola, Murray, and Gomez certainly seem in better form, but we’ve all seen AB do some pretty amazing things…I’d like to think he has something special this weekend, but who knows.
Still don’t know my picks for the women but will probably go with Jorgensen, Haug and Jenkins…I’m not sure about J Stimpson’s foot injury and after Yokohama’s wildly unpredictable podium, nothing will seem too surprising.
I would never write them off, and one thing we could see on Sat is AB taking it very slightly easier on the bike, even in a break-away situation. I’m sure he would still do his fair share of pulling, but I think he would want to save a bit more than usual for the run if he can. He went out very aggressively on the run in Yokohama and clearly got burnt. That tells me he’s at least confident in his run but maybe slightly under-estimated the others’ run form. It will be interesting, and I suspect the B’s will get better as we go through the season, especially as the CGs is their target race.
Do you think the pace he set was out of confidence or a tactic to “snap the elastic”? I got the sense that he wasn’t sure he could hold on in a pack race, so he went out abnormally hard to try and thin the herd.