Next weekend sees another round of the ITU world series, returning to Cape Town. Last year was a mixed success, a very cold swim that was reduced to 750m for the women and a rather boring bike ride that nonetheless led to two breakaways. The run included an insulting bit where the athletes had to run around traffic cones in a deserted car park … They have had a rethink and are now re-routing both the bike and run through the Green Point athletics stadium. The run appears an altogether more interesting prospect, lets hope there are more spectators this year.
Gwen Jorgensen is sitting this one out so a chance for Katie Zaferes to win her first ITU race, or Sarah True her second. The women’s field is quite weak, although good to see Vicky Holland coming back for her first race since her superb performance in Glasgow last year (and first race since being crippled by the dreaded plantar fasciae).
The men’s race sees the scheduled return of Alistair Brownlee (although Jonny is sitting this one out). Interestingly, Alistair is the only English male making the trip (assuming he does.) Before his ankle problem in March, he was in superb form on the run, beating Jonny by a good 30 seconds per 10K, so he is surely the favourite assuming he has a decent swim (this being his first race, he won’t have a good starting position though). Mola, Gomez and Murray are there. Also a good French field to look forward to with Vincent Luis competing for the first time since his podium in Abu Dhabi.
Richard Varga will be there, so interesting if we see another Varga/Brownlee escape!
I see Spirig and Densham on the list too - wonder how fit they are - Densham’s run split at Gold Coast was way below her best.
If they all come together on the bike, beware Claire Michel of Belgium, she’s got a rockin run that could upset Zafares and True.
The Spanish men are on fire - getting on to their Olympic team beside Gomez and probably Mola will be a real dog fight. Hernandez, Alarza should be pushing the bike hard to keep the swim gap to Mola into T2.
Hopefully a group gets away to make Mola and Murray chase hard and things more interesting. I like Pereira to sneak on to the podium with Gomez and Brownlee if he makes the front break away pack.
I agree that Brownlee and Gomez are most likely to be on the podium. But rather than Pereira, I’d look to France - Coninx, Montoya and Le Corre are young, hungry, excellent swimmers and runners, and that is not even mentioning Luis.
The French have an embarrassment of yount talent - wasn’t even aware of Montoya. Pereira had some nice races last year - I wonder if he’ll get any podiums with all those French and Spanish dudes up front.
Montoya is the world junior champion but significantly, came 4th in Alanya last autumn, which for someone who only turns 20 this year, was very impressive. Coninx was world junior champion the year before and reigning under 23 world champion. The more important question is whether they’ll step up to Brownlee Gomez level before Rio (in the way Alistair and Jonny did at age 21)
They would be better off holding the race in Grassy Park…chances of stepping on some drug needles would be less. What were they thinking having the swim in that cold ocean
Seriously though why do they choose that location of all places? I always thought having an iron distance race from somerset to Hermanus would be awesome…or the otherway around if you want a warm swim
Please name a single race where AB hasn’t make the front pack? Assuming that his ankle injury stopped him running a little I think you can assume that he will have been doing a bit more swimming?
Splitting hairs maybe, but front pack and front break away pack are different things. I agree that it seems likely he’s in shape to stick with Varga and have the chance to get a small group on the bike. I guess the biggest question is does Javi have his swim sorted to where he can make that group and test Ali’s run? And what about that Pornstache dude Hernandez?
Please name a single race where AB hasn’t make the front pack? Assuming that his ankle injury stopped him running a little I think you can assume that he will have been doing a bit more swimming?
I wrote:
“I like Pereira to sneak on to the podium with Gomez and Brownlee if he makes the front break away pack.”
I meant if Pereira makes the front pack - pardon my poor syntax…and I’ll pardon your typo and poor syntax.
Please name a single race where AB hasn’t make the front pack? Assuming that his ankle injury stopped him running a little I think you can assume that he will have been doing a bit more swimming?
I wrote:
“I like Pereira to sneak on to the podium with Gomez and Brownlee if he makes the front break away pack.”
I meant if Pereira makes the front pack - pardon my poor syntax…and I’ll pardon your typo and poor syntax.
Ok I miss read your post. I have no view on Pereira making the podium but I’m 100% certain that, is he races, AB will be near the front on the swim/bike but lets see what his run form is like.
AB and Gomez will have to get away from Mola in the swim/bike otherwise Mola will win :-). Without Varga stretching out the swim this will be harder to do but I imagine a break will occur (Henri S will step into Varga’s shoes) then it depends on who is prepared to work on the bike to keep the gap open or close it. If AB is on top form he will be driving the lead pack and it’ll be difficult for the chase pack to catch him.
If AB is fit, then he is at least 30 seconds faster than Mola over 10K, even assuming an easy ride. So it depends on how much his training was disrupted by the ankle (until late Feb, he was having a great training winter and was significantly faster than Jonny).
Varga may be absent but Raphael, Schoemann and Fabian are all racing and will certainly stretch it out. So the swim may not be significantly slower. But will be fun seeing AB on the bike again.
If AB is fit, then he is at least 30 seconds faster than Mola over 10K, even assuming an easy ride. So it depends on how much his training was disrupted by the ankle (until late Feb, he was having a great training winter and was significantly faster than Jonny).
Varga may be absent but Raphael, Schoemann and Fabian are all racing and will certainly stretch it out. So the swim may not be significantly slower. But will be fun seeing AB on the bike again.
That statement is questionable. Im not going to go back and look at every run split, but i don’t remember AB ever out running Mola by 30 sec in the past 2 seasons. If Mola comes off the bike with AB, no way hes running 30 seconds into Mola.
If AB is fit, then he is at least 30 seconds faster than Mola over 10K, even assuming an easy ride. So it depends on how much his training was disrupted by the ankle (until late Feb, he was having a great training winter and was significantly faster than Jonny).
Varga may be absent but Raphael, Schoemann and Fabian are all racing and will certainly stretch it out. So the swim may not be significantly slower. But will be fun seeing AB on the bike again.
That statement is questionable. Im not going to go back and look at every run split, but i don’t remember AB ever out running Mola by 30 sec in the past 2 seasons. If Mola comes off the bike with AB, no way hes running 30 seconds into Mola.
If Mario and AB are both in top form (though that rarely happens in a race) then it will be close, Mario is arguably as good a runner as AB and better than Gomez and is ? still on the upward curve. If they both come off the bike together it would depend on how much the swim and bike took out of them. It’s likely that the break will get away if AB has the bike fitness and bossing it enough.
Should be a great race whatever happens!
The operative words in my assertion is “when fit”. He was reasonably fit in San Diego in 2013 and beat an in form Mola by a minute. He then was injured, did no run training for the rest of the year and finished London 2013 on one leg, before spending autumn in a surgical boot. He didn’t regain his run fitness properly until June 2014, and was not himself in Edmonton either. So yes, we don’t know. But my assertion is based on Mola and Jonny running about the same times, and when fit, Alistair puts at least 30 seconds into Jonny (although his habit of walking up the finish chute disguises this sometimes.)
Having said the above, there is a real chance that Alistair will never regain his pre-2013 fitness and that we have seen the best of him. And in which case, Mola may well be a faster runner. But Cape Town will hopefully show how things stand
The operative words in my assertion is “when fit”. He was reasonably fit in San Diego in 2013 and beat an in form Mola by a minute. He then was injured, did no run training for the rest of the year and finished London 2013 on one leg, before spending autumn in a surgical boot. He didn’t regain his run fitness properly until June 2014, and was not himself in Edmonton either. So yes, we don’t know. But my assertion is based on Mola and Jonny running about the same times, and when fit, Alistair puts at least 30 seconds into Jonny (although his habit of walking up the finish chute disguises this sometimes.)
Having said the above, there is a real chance that Alistair will never regain his pre-2013 fitness and that we have seen the best of him. And in which case, Mola may well be a faster runner. But Cape Town will hopefully show how things stand
Can you elaborate??? He’s only 25 or 26 so would think he should be able to regain top form. Or are you thinking that he’s been doing it so long that he’s burned out mentally??? I know you have the inside scoop though so very interested to hear your thoughts:)
I don’t think Alistair is remotely burned out mentally. But he ruptured an achilles in January 2012. He got himself fit to run Kitzbuhel and the Olympics, then had appendicitis which ruled out training until early spring 2013. He did 6 weeks of training, won San Diego, did the 10K at Stamford, then had a second achilles problem very close to the previous one, and only did two track sessions in the whole of 2013, which again he ended in a surgical boot. He then had another series of injuries ruling out Auckland and Cape Town in 2014, and was not able to train properly until June. By august, the niggles returned …
He has done very little run training compared to Gomez, Mola or even Jonny over the last three years and there is surely a risk that this will catch up with him. And he hasn’t looked like the old Alistair since San Diego in 2013. This year may be different, but I think his vulnerability to running injuries, possibly because of the original Achilles injury, means there is a chance that his days as a great runner are over. To his credit, he has proven he is the best cyclist (both tactically and technically) which compensates, and I think he is the firm favourite for RIo because the run will be a test of strength endurance rather than speed. But on a flat run course after a flat bike course, he may not be the Alistair of old. But Sunday will show us.
But remember what he has said many times: “I get injured because of the way I train and I’d rather have a couple of great years when I’ve reached my full potential than ten average years by being safe.”
I don’t think Alistair is remotely burned out mentally. But he ruptured an achilles in January 2012. He got himself fit to run Kitzbuhel and the Olympics, then had appendicitis which ruled out training until early spring 2013. He did 6 weeks of training, won San Diego, did the 10K at Stamford, then had a second achilles problem very close to the previous one, and only did two track sessions in the whole of 2013, which again he ended in a surgical boot. He then had another series of injuries ruling out Auckland and Cape Town in 2014, and was not able to train properly until June. By august, the niggles returned …
After the bolded part, it seems you are making the argument that he could be burnt out mentally…injury, Olympic favourite pressure, illness, injury, injury, injury…
Obviously, dealing with ongoing injuries and illness is much harder psychologically than when things are going smoothly. He may very well be getting worn down mentally. Good reason to bet against him even making the start line at Rio.
