Hillary likely can’t win a majority in the popular vote or delegate race, but will continue to win big contests while claiming momentum. The pressure for a redux of the Michigan and Florida primaries will mount, which will also favor Hillary. The campaign will continue on as a heated and damaging ordeal for both candidates, with Obama’s reputation as the clean and positive candidate of change suffering the most. Superdelegates will likely play a deciding role, and tip the scale in someone’s favor. If a reconciliation comes in the form of a unified ticket, then Hillary runs with a VP whom she says is less qualified than her Republican opponent. If Obama gets top billing on the ticket - and assuming Hillary is offered the VP spot - half of what’s left of his appeal to moderates and independents vanishes in the Clinton’s looming shadow. If he doesn’t tag Hillary for VP, and was given the nod by the superdelegates, the Democratic base (which is currently aligned behind Hillary) pitches a royal fit, and rightly so.
Is it possible that even though the Democratic primary vote is doubling the GOP vote in nearly every primary, that the antagonistic effects of the never-ending campaign between two strong and popular candidates will ultimately deliver McCain the victory?
I think it will all depend on the type of campaigning that is done. If it gets really, and consistently nasty, then it would be a negative.
On the other hand, with McCain being the nominee on the Reps side and future primaries irrelevant, all of the media coverage will be on the Dem side. You won’t hear much about McCain for months.
On the third hand, a long primary season is very costly to the Dems.
All kinds of things go into this, some positive and some negative depending on your “side” and particular spin.
Personally, I think it helps Dems. First, whichever candidate who emerges will be seasoned and ready for a fight in the general. Second, as Fatmouse said, the media will be Democrats 24/7. Third, McCain can no longer pick one candidate to campaign against so that he can effectively start his campaign for the general right now.
I don’t think Obama or Hillary will nominate the other as VP.
And no, I don’t think the Democrats will have a mobilization problem even with a long primary. Most Democrats are happy with either candidate. Republicans have the mobilization problem.
“Is it possible that even though the Democratic primary vote is doubling the GOP vote in nearly every primary, that the antagonistic effects of the never-ending campaign between two strong and popular candidates will ultimately deliver McCain the victory?”
The problem with the Democrats is that their two top contenders are very weak, not very strong. Hillary as next in line can’t even dispatch a half term Senator. The Democrats had a potentially strong candidate in Bill Richardson, but he tried to morph himself into a by the book whacko liberal for the primaries and couldn’t even come close to pulling it off.
The primary process in both camps is working precisely as it is supposed to work and producing the results it was designed to produce. If Obama is unable to maintain Obamamania for more than two months, how does he deserve to be a major party candidate for the presidency?
I didn’t join the Limbaugh thread earlier since it was just the same old name calling, but Limbaugh had a fundamental point about his desire to continue the Democratic campaign that was, of course, not mentioned. The Republicans have decided on self censorship for this campaign. They won’t criticize the woman for fear of being called sexists and they won’t criticize he who shall not be middle named for fear of being called racists. The press is, of course, hopeless. The only ones with the guts to dissect these two are each other. Hillary’s camp surfaces the NAFTA contradiction, plays the race card, floats the drug dealer charge and empty slogan charge. Obama is about to retaliate and he has a target rich environment. So I guess the Democrats have decided to do the work Republicans won’t do.
To answer your question, the most likely result is that the Democrats will be better off for all of the combat. They will emerge with the stronger candidate, who will in turn be made stronger by the process. McCain will be lucky to get a soundbite on the evening news no one watches over the next two months.
This is the way politics is supposed to work. Let the system work.
Is it possible that even though the Democratic primary vote is doubling the GOP vote in nearly every primary, that the antagonistic effects of the never-ending campaign between two strong and popular candidates will ultimately deliver McCain the victory?
Don’t take too much stock in the fact that the dem turnout is higher. First, what would motivate a Rep. to vote in the Rep primary when its already decided and has been for a month. Second, l read a report that close to 10% of the voters in the Dem primary in Texas last night were actually Rep. and most of them voted for Hillary, just to keep the turmoil going.
Now you have lots of people talking about how the Dem party establishment is afraid that the party will be damaged in the general election because this will go on too long. Hmmmmm, I think somebody saying it would be beneficial to the Rep party for this to happen. That person actually recommended that Rep crossover.
Who could that be. Sounds like somebody that may be pretty astute when it comes to politics.
Considering that Hillary *will *fight tooth-and-nail for the presidency, despite Obama maintaining a slight lead going into the convention - and considering her tactics to this point, and that Obama can’t roll over in the face of her assaults - I don’t see how it goes any other way but ugly. The Clinton machine sees an opportunity, and you know how that usually plays out.
McCain slept his way to the nomination, courtesy of some sleazy campaign tactics and the conservative vote-splitting between Huckster and Romney. He’ll likely do the same now, letting Clinton run Obama’s name into the ground (and by the campaigning we’ll likely see - her own as well).
(Not to say he didn’t work hard for it, only that he turned a campaign which excited very few within his own party into an improbable winner. Energy and enthusiasm he had in spades, but he never evoked the same response, and wouldn’t have succeeded without his opponents sharing the same base.)
Regardless of whom you’re rooting for, I think it’s pretty clear now that this is likely to hurt either Democrat’s chance in the GE against what should have been a walk-over candidate.
Limbaugh had a fundamental point about his desire to continue the Democratic campaign that was, of course, not mentioned.
Actually, I mentioned it, and agreed that it was fair play and sensible, but was ignored. Go figure.
I think the likely scenario is that Obamania fades, and Hillary’s newly-acquired battle scars prove indistinguishable from her pre-existing battle scars, and stands to survive the primary process as the candidate whom most resembles the pre-primary version of herself. In that respect (and others), she probably should be the choice for the GE; but then there’s that whole delegate count thing she’ll have against her. The process is working as it should: it’s inherently built to function like a meat grinder, so I guess we should expect to see a fair amount of blood.
The problem with letting the 2 Dems tear each other apart is that it will happen so far ahead of the general election. Americans have short memories, and if McCain can’t exploit the warts, he has no chance. Unfortunately, it’s still negative politics that gets people elected here.
“Actually, I mentioned it, and agreed that it was fair play and sensible, but was ignored. Go figure.”
Actually, I had noticed that.
I weary of those that grab a sound bite and deliberately miss the fundamental point the speaker is making. Then they go on to pound him for being shallow and superficial or worse. Of course, the vast majority of such posters didn’t even hear the comments, only what they were selectively told he said.
I suspect Limbaugh had an impact on that election last night. He puts himself at risk for being thanked for having a future president Hillary. Wouldn’t that be rich?
Don’t take too much stock in the fact that the dem turnout is higher. First, what would motivate a Rep. to vote in the Rep primary when its already decided and has been for a month.
Except that Democratic turnouts dwarfed that of the Republican primaries even before McCain earned the title of presumptive nominee. The crossover vote could have just as easily been a protest of McCain as anything else.
Rich indeed. Rush makes a comfortable living off of political discord and drama. Imagine what 8 more years of a Clinton administration would do for his career. The material for his show would literally write itself.
It may be easier for him to gather stuff to talk about, but he isn’t getting any more successful. He had 500+ stations before Bill Clinton was elected back in 1992. He has something like 600+ now. That is not that much growth over 16 years. I think people listen regardless of who is in the white house.
Art you are truly the master of turning turds into chocolate pie.
You say the Dems have two weak candidates yet they are generating record turnout all over the country. More people are voting for the losing Democrat in most states than the winning Republican. Dems have perhaps the two strongest candidates to pick from in living memory, hence the unprecedented interest and levels of participation.
John McCain lost the republican nomination about a year ago but he didn’t have the good sense to drop out of the race. He was out of cash, he was firing staff left and right and he came in a distant fourth in Iowa behind a travelling preacher, a TV actor and a smarmy gameshow host, with a whopping 13% of the Republican vote.
Since then the cast of clowns also known as the Republican candidates for President have, one by one, self destructed. Giuliani, then Thompson, then Romney, leaving McCain the only one hanging around who wasn’t a knuckle dragging preacher man who thinks evolution is bunkum.
The Republican primary should be re named, Last Comic Standing. McCain is old, he’s a Bush loyalist, he knows squat about the economy, he not only wants to keep us in this war but he’d like to start a few more, and the base of his own party hates him…and you say the Democrats have fielded two weak candidates.
Meanwhile Obama and Clinton candidates have been filling arenas and stadiums all over the country for rallys and events and old JOhn McCain can’t fill the back room at the airport Hilton.
Meanwhile Obama and Clinton candidates have been filling arenas and stadiums all over the country for rallys and events and old JOhn McCain can’t fill the back room at the airport Hilton.
It would have been funnier if you’d said “Airport HoJo.”
A salient point to remember is that McCain’s delegate lead is greatly inflated due to the winner take all format of most Republican primaries. Missouri is the clearest example of that phenomenon where he got just over 1/3 of the vote, but all the delegates. I have heard second hand that some Republican states have proportional representation. McCain lost in those states, but still won some delegates, thereby skewing his delegate lead even more.
the most worrying thing for John McCain is that he has been the presumptive nominee for weeks now and he barely got 50% of the party vote in Texas last night. He may have all the delegates but he certainly has not…to borrow a neo-con phrase…won the hearts and minds of the party faithful.
John McCain got 707,000 votes yesterday…and the two “weak” Democrats, Hillary Clinton 1,453,000 and Barack Obama 1,355,000.
People are saying McCain has a huge advantage in that he can concentrate on going after the Dems now for 5 months…nonsense, he needs to spend that time winning over Republicans.
I’d be less concerned about turnouts now as there is not much incentive to vote. On Super Tuesday, when he emerged as the man, he was not winning by large margins and the turnouts were much lower than the Democratic primaries. Maybe I am wrong, and historically people want to vote for their nominee, but the idea that folks would stay at home makes intuitive sense to me…
I don’t think a divided electorate with an ugly convention finale is good for Democrats…and that is what this looks like it will be. Sure it doesn’t give McCain a target until late in the game, but it also doesn’t get people to the polls and puts Democrats behind in fundraising. I am an Obama supporter and after the dishonest crap Hillary has pulled, right now I would not be excited about voting for her nor do I think she would ultimately win.
Republicans have shown they will get out and vote, mainly out of fear of a Democratic candidate. Over the past few elections the Republican fascist fear-mongering has been able to pull in enough independents to win and McCain has already start blowing that horn. Truth is if you can’t figure out a way to get behind a candidate after watching the Bush administration for 8 years, then you might as well pack it up and go home.