No, that headline is not a typo. After bottoming out recently at levels unseen since 1997, major stock indexes are up almost 10 percent since Monday. The rally reflects broad optimism over a string of positive economic developments this week that has some questioning if the worst of the crisis might have passed. In particular, positive earnings reports from Bank of America and Citigroup, which have sat at the edge of bankruptcy for much of the last month, bolstered confidence that the financial sector will survive the downturn. Even some less encouraging news wasn’t as bad as expected—General Electric’s credit rating was downgraded, but not as far down as some predicted. Still, economists are warning that major challenges remain and recovery is still some time away even if the stock market stabilizes.
No, that headline is not a typo. After bottoming out recently at levels unseen since 1997, major stock indexes are up almost 10 percent since Monday. The rally reflects broad optimism over a string of positive economic developments this week that has some questioning if the worst of the crisis might have passed. In particular, positive earnings reports from Bank of America and Citigroup, which have sat at the edge of bankruptcy for much of the last month, bolstered confidence that the financial sector will survive the downturn. Even some less encouraging news wasn’t as bad as expected—General Electric’s credit rating was downgraded, but not as far down as some predicted. Still, economists are warning that major challenges remain and recovery is still some time away even if the stock market stabilizes.
They say the stock market looks into the future…but I’ve never heard how far
For me personally I’m staring at no less than 4 months of the worst months I’ve seen since I’ve been in this industry, 20 years now. That’s if things start picking up TODAY, which isn’t going to happen.
My guess is that we are going to see a bit more slowing before we see some turn around, so I’m really looking at 6-8 months of complete CRAP!
I think we’re still headed a long way down. All those 100’s of thousands of people who lost jobs the past few months will be foreclosed on in the next 9 to 16 months further driving down housing prices and continuing the collapse.
Me too. We haven’t felt the full pain of the financial debocle and the over-escalation of credit yet. I’m not sure how high the Dow might go… maybe 8000 or 8500… before it heads back down to new lows.
Well technically I can see that a significant rally will continue from here, at least 2000 points and as much as close to 3000 points. In no way am I making a case for the beginning of the major cycle back up. After this first rally, a good guesstimate is that we see a sideways market. As long as the swings within the range is wide enough with no extended bog down consolidation, I am fine with that for money making before the impending bull run when it does come.
So many are expecting the markets to continue on a straight line plunge makes no sense. The stock loss has been huge already so unless you’re saying American corporations as a whole have little to no value, another 10% to 20% further plunge from last week’s all time lows is pretty sureal.
Another thing if you notice some people here quoting the continued or worsening bad economic factors, I don’t doubt that they may be correct. But huge Bears markets have never recovered on the economy and never will. From the charts this stock down cycle in timing terms should have just about done it’s worse, with that initial rally over due. From other positive technical indicators and some fundamental ones, such as the realtively fewer stocks that partook in this last drop indicates that this rally should be now.
Everything is basically up in the air, no one can be 100%, but like you I’m in and after seeing ruffs adamant doom and gloom, I just know I am on point.
**He was predicting that we were at a top, and that the Dow would drop to ~3,000 by 2012. **
Whose he?
and that chart is wierd. Inflation adjusted? And the verticle line showing level changes, it’s not linearly scaled. Is it supposed to be some hybrid of an Elliot Wave Theory or something?
I still can’t figure out the chart let alone how it shows 3000 Dow in 2012. If stock market cycles now continue to move within the general parameters of the market cycles it has always done, 2012 we should be well into the next bull run.
If what this bloke says is correct then we are going to be replicating another Great Depression from here. 1929 and 2009 there’s really no comparison. But anything is possible. Just highly improbable.
I see the first rebound rally from here 10,000 as the objective. By mid-May the market will reveal. Afterb that there will be a clearer picture as to where the market is headed. I really don’t trust a sage who predicts the market in one fell swoop all the way to 2012.
Talk is talk, opinion is just that. The proof of the pudding is in the tasting. … ie mid to end May.
I’ll give him a little credibility since he predicted our current drop purely on cyclic trends. He predicts Dow of 3000 in 2012 since we are due a correction of that magnitude. IMO the financial BS that has been going on lately is at least as bad as what triggered the Great Depression. It is a cyclic trend on top of a more serious problem.
Just guessing, but I think shorting the market would be a good idea if it gets to 8500.
