The Atlantic notes:
A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows that Ron Paul has taken the lead in the Iowa caucus race, while Newt Gingrich’s support is fading fast. A different Gallup poll shows Gringrich still holding the lead, but slipping, while The New York Times has Paul in the lead as well.
Gingrich has seen his numbers in the PPP poll drop from 27 percent to 14 percent in just three weeks, while his favorability rating is now split at 46 percent for to 47 percent against, the worst of any candidate not named Jon Huntsman.
Perhaps the most telling secondary question was, “Do you think Newt Gingrich has strong principles?” Only 36 percent say that he does, but for Paul that number was 73 percent.
Paul, as you can see, hasn’t had any ups and downs like the other candidates.
That’s a pretty funny graph. I knew candidates were coming and going regularly, but I didn’t realize the peak and intervals between them were so similar.
I still think that Romney is the only candidate who has even an outside shot at actually winning in the general election, and I think the ups and downs of the other candidates show that other people think the same. Even if he isn’t very exciting. Romney has no fervent supporters like Perry/Cain/Paul (Gingrich didn’t really have any either), but he’s not appalling to independents like the others.
With a moderate VP and Democrat-held Congress to keep him in check, I wouldn’t mind President Paul too much. At least he tells you what he means.
Agree that Romney is probably the best shot for the GOP at the general election, but he has to get there first!
I have serious doubts about his ability to get there. Voters in general don’t connect with him, and the real heart of the GOP is the rabid conservatives, who don’t like him at all. The variances in this chart say to me that the red blood GOP’ers are desperately trying to convince themselves to vote for anyone BUT Romney. Maybe in the end they’ll give in to him, but Romney really needs to start convincing people.
His track record is against him in the primary, he’s a moderate. He just is. Everyone knows it. And he looks like a flip flopper when he tries to sound tough and conservative. His best bet is that he’s running against a group of highly unelectable competitors.
I’m waiting for Huntsman to be the candidate du jour.
That’s a pretty funny graph. I knew candidates were coming and going regularly, but I didn’t realize the peak and intervals between them were so similar.
I still think that Romney is the only candidate who has even an outside shot at actually winning in the general election, and I think the ups and downs of the other candidates show that other people think the same. Even if he isn’t very exciting. Romney has no fervent supporters like Perry/Cain/Paul (Gingrich didn’t really have any either), but he’s not appalling to independents like the others.
With a moderate VP and Democrat-held Congress to keep him in check, I wouldn’t mind President Paul too much. At least he tells you what he means.
I don’t see what you see. 2 of those lines show a slow consistent steady progress, one is slowly slipping downward the other is slowly growing. Then there are three flash in the pans with meteoric rise and falls.
This graph is interesting and will be more so in a few months.
yeah, he did. I just can’t figure out the levels of hatred inspired by Bush and Obama relative to each other. I kind of feel like Obama might be more hated.
Interesting how the Romney dip was smaller with Cain than with Perry and Gingrich. Not surprising though, just interesting to see who tepid Romney supporters were willing to entertain, and who they were not.
But it’s all irrelevant; Iowa pretty much means squat for GOP hopefuls, in the grand scheme of things.
Don’t doubt the media’s ability to anoint someone as the winner and leading candidate, and that carrying some weight with voters as part of a “I might as well vote for X, he’s gonna win anyways.”
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**Do you get 15 auto phone calls a day, and 12 campaign volunteers knocking on your door? That’s what I have in my head for how it works. **
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Neither. If I had a landline then I would be getting phone calls pretty regularly, but with just my mobile that doesn’t happen. Most days I get 2-3 pieces of mail from a candidate or their supporters. And I have not had anyone knock on my door yet (at least not when I have been home).
The biggest thing is the media overload…commercials on radio and television, television news coverage every day about who is in the state and where they are campaigning, plus additional coverage in the papers. It is just everywhere right now.
Probably the biggest upside is that there are plenty of opportunities to meet the candidates. If I felt strongly that Ron Paul was my guy, I suspect I could have found a way to be in the same room with him at some point and introduced myself. The candidates are here so early and so often in the campaign cycle that it is relatively easy to attend “meet and greets” while the crowds are smaller.
