I think it is obvious that he is talking Kona specifically.
4 Likes
Yes there have been others, like the Mouthon twin sisters from France. But the original question qualified this as āsince the DeBoomsā.
In Kona - yes - thanks for catching that 
Oh good Lord,heaven help that a thread on Slowtwitch occaisionally strays from the original question.
Off the top of my Head,
KNIBB, Derron, matthews, phillips, chutterbuck. Lee, Lovseth, Lawrence, maybe a few others that can have a good swim and be in the big front pack (not saying a good run maybe in store off that bike) ,maybe I am missing a few, but they can form a pack but unlike menās sam liadlow 2024 off the front. a female 2025 elite pack I think can catch a solo Lucy. THESE ARE NOT THE SAME WOMEN on the bike as 2022,2023. Lucy in the past made the swim go up a knotch, then Knibb made them all take it up a notch on the bike.
And like the mens race the more faster swim in the race the harder to gap the swim.
lots can happen.
Lucy is the favorite due to history, never said otherwise. but the ladies she beat in 2023 are all much better now, same with the new ladies added.
I miss Chrissie
1 Like
I suggest the idea of a ābig front [chase] packā forming, let alone that pack catching up with Charles-Barclay, is flawed on the basis of swim-bike capability. There is no Laidlow character in this field and the range of bike strength is wider in the women (cf KB, Iden, MvR, Stornes, Aus moustache). If a pack does form that will actually be a disadvantage as they will lose time to a hard riding LCB/Knibb. Matthews will go off the front at her first opportunity, or ride so hard that it otherwise fractures.
I am assuming btw that Knibb will keep the gap at T1 small (<90 seconds) and bike up and away. She will swim/bike/ride to win and she must have a decent gap to LCB at T2 and at least 10 to Matthews and/or Philipp. I expect her to get a gap but that LCB (et al) will catch her on the run.
Matthews certainly has the form to close the gap to LCB but she doesnāt need to: her swim&run combo is better than LCB: she just needs to hold station. Remarkably they have not both finished the same race since the PTO US Open in 2022 so I canāt offer direct evidence of that. But Matthewsā marathon times: 2:53 Nice180, 2:49 Texas, 2:40 Hamburg (NB in last 13 months) offer evidence compared to LCBās Kona 2022 & 2023 (3:02 and 2:57). For the bike I draw on her holding Knibb to < a minute at Texas (Knibb rode āall inā btw) cf losing 4+ mins to Knibb 5 months earlier in Taupo (and that only with massive assistance from Simmonds). I assume Dowsettās coaching has been key to that improvement.
Loevseth is a possible. She will endeavour to swim with Matthews, and has the ability to do so. If that happens they will ride together. In my view this is a win-win as both are motivated to cooperate and have the bike power so to do. Matthews ftw, Loevseth for the podium. Donāt forget Loevseth ran 2:46 on debut in Hamburg and 2:46 on the harder IMLP course. She will be confident of taking time on LCB and more on Knibb on the run so the closer at T2 the better. And if Matthews falters, sheāll be there for the taking.
Clutterbuck should swim front (chase) pack but hasnāt got the pedal power to play a further part in the top 12. She has had to overcome some serious health challenges which sheās courageously shared: a steady finish in the run will be a win for her. Derron is in uncharted territory. I can see her tagging on to the strongest cyclists as they come through. Clear podium potential if she can extend her T100 speeds to a race 126% longer, and thatās a big IF.
Iād be delighted to see Lee string together a good bike after an excellent swim but her inconsistency is a weakness: it hasnāt happened yet. Lawrenceās ride is not her strength, and also IM still ānewā to her: see IMLP where she lost 7 to Loevseth, 10 to Perterer (+ penalty) and 10 to Sanchez. Neither are remotely likely to ride up to LCB: both will wish to avoid overbiking as they both will want to have a decent run (NB Lee DNFād run in Nice so extra-motivated).
Mentioning Perterer, I suggest she is the only āotherā who will be a player on the bike and beyond and NB her strength in hot humid (Singapore T100 #2 ahead of LCB). She will swim better than Matthews/Loevseth/Philipp, maybe with Derron, and this year has shown the bike power to hold Matthews for two hours (Texas and Zell am See) and stronger than Loevseth (IMLP and Zell am See). But unlike Loevseth who has the run to back it up and therefore motivation, she will be no help to others who catch her.
Sanchez is similar, but her run is weaker still (#6 in IMWC 2024 but >3 hours run and in IMLP). She is on for #3 in the IM Pro Series btw, behind Loevseth and Matthews ($$$).
Which leaves Philipp who (spoiler alert) Thorsten assesses as the most likely winner. Philipp will have a gap to make up to Matthews on the bike. If sheās close at the pier than she is in the box seat already. but the gap is critical. If sheās close itāll be worth burning matches to get to Matthews. If not she canāt afford that but then sheāll have her nose in the wind for the duration (as will Matthews btw): they (with Knibb and Charles-Barclay) are the four strongest cyclists over 180km. Given the likely gap at T1, I cannot envisage her catching LCB Unless she catches Matthews first. Loevsethās swim position is a key factor: whoever sheās with (Philipp or Matthews) has lucked in (or by arrangement) and may be a race-winning advantage.
As you say: āthe ladies she beat in 2023 are all much better now, [as are] the new ladiesā. If 2021 70.3 World Champs LCB turns up sheāll win. If 2023 IM World Champs LCB turns up, sheāll be beaten.
I am not convinced that Knibb has had an injury/illness free perfect build to Kona. Time will tell. I have about 5/6 possible winners as well. LCB/Phillips/Mathews/Derron/Lovseth/Knibb. PierrƩ is my outsider and Sodero is my shocker.
Putting my head on the spike and saying I donāt think Knibb is going to win.
3 Likes
No need to put your head on a spike. With so much talent toeing the line, the odds of anyone of them winning are not overwhelmingly high. What we can count on is, how the mix of varying talents of the field will make this an especially exciting race to watch.
1 Like
New LCB video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaNnelrWas4
She went to Silverstone and said she saved 16 watts (!)
What makes you think that? Knibb is a very private person but has she indicated an injury or some sorts?
it will be a pity if she is not 100% fit!
Wonder what % of that is lost (ie not saved) with the Kask?
And hereās a pic of a fairing, imho:
Top cage, at least. No structural or other function.
And thatās quite a cantilever for a moment of approx 4Nm (static).
1 Like
looks like theyāre going to rewrite the fairing roles againā¦ itās getting ridiculous.
According to this, she is getting into Lionel CDA territory 
I think she is doing a reverse Norwegian : she publishes bad numbers to get lull her competitors into a false sense of security.
Julie Derron is out
Not fully recovered from that crash in August
1 Like
I agree with your take. She has to push the bike and go with Lucy in order to win. This is only Knibbās 3rd IM right? Part of me thinks sheās still figuring out the distance and somewhat scared. Itās hard to take risks at the distance until you are comfortable with it. Iām not convinced sheās there yet. What will be telling is what happens in the swim and the first 10-15 miles on the bike. That should be telling on Taylorās mentality. Sheās either going for the win or staying within her perceived capabilities. And neither option is wrong.
1 Like
She might have broader shoulders than Lionel though!
1 Like
Thatās too bad. She might have been a decent addition to one of the chase groups.
Instagram: āThis week Iāve had to make the difficult decision not to race the IRONMAN World Championships in Kona.
āI believed I could be ready but Iāve been struggling with health issues since my crash in August and to race an Ironman at this point would be too big a risk in the long term.
āI am very disappointed as I was really looking forward to the experience and to racing the best women in the world. But for now I will focus on getting healthy and will be cheering extra hard for my partner in crime @nina_derron .ā
Might she reckon sheād be OK for a short 100km race in reasonable conditions in a fortnight, instead? (I have no idea if the āhealth issuesā are ājustā recovering physically from the crash, or others.)
I was surprised she didnāt show any other helmets. Surely she had to test others, but maybe they didnāt have one painted redbull.