I am going for @Lucy_Charles who kept here powder dry at the Ironman distance this year. A win at Lanzarote without having to drag race the run, not being on the line in Hamburg and Roth where the other women used their after burners (only so many fast runs in a human body in a season or career at the IM distance anyway) and she’s been on fire wire to wire at T100 London and T100 Ibiza.
I also think Taylor Knibb has been laying low enough lately after not really bouncing back strongly from IM Texas in the spring. She also does not have a fast Ironman run in her legs this year.
The combo of Lucy + Taylor could do some damage coming into T2 together.
Point 1: Think that’s quite likely: part of the plan (debut).
Point 2: Me too. Knibb had demonstrated in successive 70.3WCs and PTO 100s that her bike was a % better than everyone else. But LCB rode really well in 2023, gaining the gap she needed on Haug, and Knibb has said/implied (I think) she deliberately kept below a planned power threshold: hence no catch.
Knibb has held LCB in the water each time this year (Vancouver and London) and I see no reason why she won’t again. There’s no Waugh or Learmonth to help with the pace. It will be interesting to see whether there are deliberate tactics to distance herself from Knibb. Or maybe she’ll be happy to have company immediately on the bike, and “latch on” as you say. Can we see LCB actually taking turns on the front of that duo? I can see Knibb letting her and when the time is right (?climb to Hawi), dropping her the next time it’s Knibb’s turn on the front. Knibb will reckon she needs a gap at T2 over LCB and will endeavour to make that so - how many minutes though?
Matthews will have a gap on Philipp climbing the pier steps. We don’t know what deficit she’ll have on LCB/Knibb out of T1 but she rode the same speed as Knibb in Texas (and both were full on). Can either LCB or Knibb hang around? If they do they’ll be caught on the run, either by Matthews or by Philipp. Might we expect Derron (better swimmer) to “latch on” to Matthews? Will Loevseth be with Matthews (and Perterer) out of the water? And they’d then ride together to start with. It’d be in the latter two’s interest to have company at least to the turn. Sweeping up Derron.
We saw the biking margin Matthews had on Philipp in Hamburg. Philipp will have no help on the bike so if not clear to me how she will close the gap to Matthews. And unlike in Hamburg where she drafted in the swim with Matthews leading for 50 minutes, and then she biked behind either Loevseth or Matthews till the elastic broke (160km), she’ll be running with a hard bike in her legs. Haug’s best Kona marathon time is 2:48. I expect both Matthews and Philipp to set out at that pace: in Hamburg (way different environmental conditions obv) they both ran sub 1:18 for the first half.
I stand by my earlier prediction, Knibb will swim on Lucy’s feet and be within seconds at the finish, not minutes..What are you looking for, 50/100 bucks on this one?? I’m game if you are…
IT benefits both of them, and only the end of the day will tell us who got more. Yes Lucy should feel good about her run, but Taylor can also run, faster than Lucy in some instances. But at Ironmans she has the edge for sure, so Taylor will certainly try and get a gap on the bike at some point. And best bet is to come out with her, work pace together for a lot of the ride, and then probably take off with 30 to 45 miles to go and get 3 to 5 minutes head start on the run. IT works for both ladies with certainly a good size chase pack with superior runners chasing them down.. Thus my swim prediction..
I can’t see them working well together on the bike after they exit T1 within a minute. They are both loners, at heart and from long experience.
“Taylor will certainly try and get a gap on the bike at some point“ Agree but. Knibb must know if she leaves as late as the return on the QK she won’t generate a decent gap on LCB. So she’ll not wait: get a gap: make LCB ride with her nose in the wind and pull out that gap. Knibb will assess (well I assess) that she’ll risk more by riding together after the Kawaihae turn, than riding alone. And Knibb has the spare watts.
“a good size chase pack“ I can’t see it. It’ll be Matthews alone or dragging. and Philipp alone. So I can see this race being as close to an ITT as you’ll get (Knibb, LCB, Matthews, Philipp). So different from the men’s race.
Will she? In the last year or so they’ve swam pretty close if not together, I think they were usually about the same position coming onto the bike in their T100s last year too.
That’s an interesting case where co-opetition could be the best move. I think they ultimately benefit from both having each other for a majority of the bike. Kat would want a small gap out of the water to make Laura burn some matches, but ultimately they both ride faster if they work together. If each is riding solo, or if they cat and mouse like Hamburg, they risk letting Lucy get too far up the road or letting good runners either tag along or be close coming off the bike (Sloveig, Derron, Sodoro).
In his seedings for Hamburg, Thorsten’s expected gap was 89 seconds. In the event no decent swimmers started and Matthews dragged Loevseth, Hering and Philipp round the Binnen and Aussen Alster (hence same time). In the recent world champs they’ve both done (ie where it matters) Lahti and Nice, Matthews has had a decent gap (details). Of course you may be proved right.
I can’t see them cooperating though, if they find themselves together: Philipp will just (entirely legally) suck the wheel (as in Hamburg), well she’ll try. And if she goes to the front they’ll lose time on those ahead. Matthews is significantly stronger on the bike than in Nice last year (see Texas v Taupo and Hamburg v Nice). Loevseth may play a part but on form, difficult to see her beating the ‘top 3’: see Zell am See as well as Hamburg. Podium chance.
I would say if she gets on her feet and stays there most the way, then less than a minute at the finish would be considered “she swam with her”. If she is a minute back and never got on the feet, then no she did not swim with her…
There are no indications that she is injured? Having said that she is a very private person, don’t post much on social media or say much
If fit, I can see her reaching T2 ahead of everyone else but the trio of ladies LCB, LP and KM will over take her at some point during the marathon. I see her finishing a strong 4th.
maybe next year, she can focus on running a 2-50 marathon?
Ok mate, lets keep it friendly and we’ll say 50 English pounds (which is between 50 and 100 US bucks I think) we’ll do the conversation after the race.
LCB will drop Knibb on the swim, if Knibb is in a group with LCB but at the back this isn’t counted and you’ve won the bet. Shall we say two body lengths counted as dropping (don’t like the idea of Knibb being allowed to come in less than a minute and not counting as being dropped)
