There is no basis, other than emotion, for that prediction. Her IM Nice 2:50 converts up (given >1km short to 2:54 off an unpressured 170km bike ride. She ran superbly in 2023, above many’s expectation with 2:57 here last time, albeit not pressed and claiming injury. So I guess that comparison depends on what you mean by close.
LCB’s Vancouver (4 mins slower than Derron) was bang average / on form but her two excellent T100 18kms suggest she’s in great shape. Her competitors will not know, till the Energy Lab, say, just how good. And that will force them to risk overbiking to restrict the gap. (Get well soon!)
This. I don’t think LCB will be concerned if Knibb pushes on, though she’d like a wheel for as long as her watts allow. LCB will be (tactically) ‘looking back’ though not much she can do besides ‘best effort’. She will have the disadvantage of being ahead of her chasers: splits will be more accurate and useful to those behind.
If Knibb has 5 minutes on LCB at T2 she has a chance of not being caught by her but I’d expect her to be caught by Matthews, who will ride as fast as Knibb so the deficits will be as at T1. If I might add to your data above, Matthews rode within ?30 secs of Knibb’s ‘world best time’ in Texas (not -6 mins): her deficit was all swim (Zilinkas dragging). Matthews ran 2:49 in Texas easing off from half way (after the catch) and five weeks later 2:40 in Hamburg in benign conditions, till the heavens opened.
‘Bout time we heard what Derron “thinks of that scenario”. Derron will be flying under the radar, till she isn’t.