Yeah, that’s what I posited either in this thread or another one, I think they MAY get to 600 and change women TOPS in 2026. They will NOT start 3000. And we 100% will know all about it. Zero chance 1000 women start.
My 1k number is because that’s the easiest round number with any talk about slot numbers and participant numbers on data etc. So whether that really is only 921 on race day that’s much easier to say “nearly 1k women still race” vs 662 or whatever 75/25 is etc.
Keep in mind I’m not talking about qualification spots. I’m talking about total spots, combining all avenues of qualification / legacy / FPro / initiative programs. So there is zero chance they come out day 1 of qualification period and say it must have 1k females to 1500 males (or even 75/25 split, they won’t announce an specific quota, zero chance that happens). Want to talk about zero chance, zero chance they announce it has to be X/Y numbers, They’ll work the slots and program iniatives to fill the spots.
And the idea that there is zero chance they get to 1k is based on what? Industry people don’t even agree on that premise, see others thoughts on it. So it’s all conjecture
Generally speaking, what will happen if they prioritize customers who don’t make them a priority over other customers who do make them a priority, is they will gradually lose business and attribute it over a series of years to bad luck with changing market dynamics.
Betting on the women has proven to be a failure over a 4 year period, but IM is welcome to continue to keep rolling that dice.
I’m actually most surprised that Derue didn’t give a greater nod to equal representation. That he was pretty direct and only threw a few women for tri bones must suggest they are pretty disappointed (upset?) that they gave all the female athletes a big chance and were bit for it. The rotation would have continued if the women showed up. We can say they needed to give more time and lose more money, but that just reveals how unprofitable it is to focus on that segment. It’s not surprising it failed when the numbers were considered as everyone has various priorities and financial capabilities, so they need a broad base to draw on that doesn’t exist for female long course athletes. IM would have been better off sending some of the older male age groups to the women’s race, but that’s a real mixed bag considering the strain it is to host two champs in different locations on the organization already.
One day is much simpler obviously. They just need to find a way to get creative with the space.
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He didn’t say that I did and I am referencing he 2026 event. The problem with using a “round number” for brevity is that there is a HUGE percentage difference between 1000 and 700, 30% in that case.
Yes but they will make a big show of it so that it is well known that extra women slots are available and where they can be had.
They can’t possibly announce that number because it’s based on proportionality. They won’t know those proportions until the races happen. So your characterization of “sneaky” is disingenuous. He was fully transparent they were going to be proportional adjacent with initiatives (rightly) skewing that slightly.
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So whether it’s this year or next I think they’ll settle on that number as quick as they can vs some long winded increase 1% increase for the women starting at 25% and it taking 8 years to get to that number. Especially as I think they are going to be racing closer to 3k numbers than 2500 start number. Was it one of the 2 day race that had ~2900. So a 67/33 split is probably as good as it gets for all parties, much more imo than w 77/23 split or whatever it will be.
You want to talk about zero percent chance. There will zero chance they only have 2500 on the start lists going forward in Kona. Even though both male and female only events got to that number. They’ll have to find a way to make it as close to 3k as possible. It allows them to get the max number of women to push the whole equality / iniatives, while also making sure the men are as happy as they can be even though it’ll be less overall % of representation.
So how do you get 1k women and it be the least disruptive, suprise surprise you get to the max number CEO mentioned, 3k. Suddenly that’s likely the best of all parties.
I think the record was one of the 2 day events at just over ~2600 (“women’s only” day that had ~1/4 of the field AG men as well) add in % of dns/dnf and you get closer and closer to max capacity.
2615 Men finished on the Saturday race of 2022, 2589 combination men and women on the Thursday race. So they really haven’t come close to 3000 yet and DeRue was very much hedging his bets on that in the PTN interview. Clearly 3000 is his pie in the sky hope but he acknowledges it likely going to be “somewhere” north of 2500. To be perfectly frank, there really isn’t enough room for an extra 400-500 bikes using the current layout and their options are exceedingly limited. I’ve been there, I’ve seen it, it’s jammed up.
I’m good with the idea of a 70/30, no issues from me. But a 50:50 split is a bad business decision.
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Right but if your talking about now being confined to 1 day, you’d have to think they will find a way to get closer to the 3k pie in the sky number then the current ~2500 max. It would make no sense to lose 15% income when they can likely find a way to put 100 along the road, 200 in the back lot etc. I’m not advocating to double in size. I’m saying if the CEO mentioned 3k, they’ll get to that number. And again final race numbers aren’t the end all, as % will always dnf / dns. So if it suddenly is 2788 race day finishers you know they had pretty damn close to 3k paid entries.
Yes and what I am saying is short of a complete revamping of T1, there’s no way to do that. They would have to take over the King K hotel parking lot which is in use at the time and where they stage the welcome and awards banquet.
No, he won’t.
What’s your role with IM that you continue to talk with such certainties? Or is it only ‘26 your referencing any of this? I would assume they’ll have to find a way to get closer to 3k than 2500 current capacity.
2026 kona will be the largest race number in Kona. Whether it’s 3k in 18 months maybe not. But if this becomes the permanent solution they’ll be forced to find a way to max out participant numbers than the current max capacity.
Predicting likely outcomes is my job. 
As Talor Knibb likes to famously say “We’ll see..”
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Right but your opnining no better or worse than anyone else in this thread. So I wanted to know if you had heard inside info with your certainity predictions.
Again I’m not going on the let’s double the number. I’m in the camp that I think 3k number will be doable at some point and that will help get 1k woken with least disruption. If you think they are stuck at ~2600 max cool.
Ya that’s one option. Between keeping the banquet the same, keeping the transition layout the same, and selling $1 million plus more entries, I’d think that choice would be clear.
They’ll have to figure some other stuff out, but they can make it work, even if it’s taking the tents down in time to set-up transition and putting them back up again that morning. For a million more bucks every year in perpetuity and you don’t have to a split location in France to earn it? That’s a headache worth dealing with.
They can also shut down part of the road and just keep moving the transition further out. That would require a longer road closure, but for the city if they were looking at the extra money from that and they don’t have to have the queen k closed for 2 whole days? Ya, why not.
The issue on IM side is the flow of transition, but it’s a problem to be solved and just be willing to accept the tradeoffs.
I would disagree with you here. They can find the space. It will be tight, but it won’t be that hard.
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Has it?
Despite all the talk on this forum about how people hated the split location and the WC in Nice and everything else, IM has sold out European races faster than I’ve ever seen since I started triathlon.
It’s difficult to precisely point to cause and effect but this is happening.
I don’t know about Europe but here in the states Ironman has dropped the size of at least some of the races. (Ironman Wisconsin)This leads to sellouts which are good for business.
Have any races actually been shut down? I think a lot of races have converted from full to 70.3 because there’s a lot more demand
IM Netherlands is no more (although that was a few years ago)
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