Yes - I know, still more than three weeks to go, but we are in zoom mode already. Was thinking it could be nice, for now, to compile videos/posts from the male racers, leading into the race.
One question, before I post a first video: Where is Iden ?
And here is a first video from Bækkegaard, whos s finding final tune-ups:
Let’s change the title to pre race only
Start a new thread for race day because there is too much that will happen to be buried in a gigantic stream of posts!!!
Ah yeah. Nice Iden looks strooong. Will be good to see if he is truly back?
Sam and Marquardt are going to absolutely destroy the swim. Two strong bikers as well they could create a solid gap coming into T2. It’s their only chance. Sam wont be allowed to just pedal away again if they come out as a bunch.
How big the second swim pack will be interesting. Can Lionel hold onto the back of it? Expect Gustav, Kristian, Currie and Magnus to be in there driving the train early on the bike.
Magnus will try to bridge to Sam and get stuck in no man’s land backing his run with Lionel in tow.
T2 - We see Sam and Marquardt leave with a 5min lead. Next up is Mangnus and Lionel, with a close pack of Norwegians.
Prediction:
Magnus
Sam
Lionel
Kristian will cook himself and Gustav isn’t 100% yet.
Dark Horse: Trevor Foley. He’s going to rip the bike. Grew up in Florida he knows how to run in the heat. How far back in the swim is he and can he pace himself while being aggressive.
Scott
Laidlow noted that after his 2nd place in Kona in 2022 he was searching for two minutes, and reasoned that he’d find it on the swim.
Both he and Marquardt have every incentive to drop the tier 1b swimmers - the guys who can sometimes make the front pack if its slow enough but aren’t the guys driving the pace. Co-incidentally these are (other than himself) all the big hitters for the overall: Blu, Iden, Ditlev, Lange.
We can expect them to absolutely drill the swim to make sure there’s at least a minute between himself and those guys. Ditlev will have every intention of closing the gap (and likely will), but at least make him work for it. The other three have the fastest runs in the sport, so need to be close but don’t need to be in the same group out of T2
We are a long way away from race day. In typical fashion, not everyone will make it to the start line. There are a lot of things that will change between now and race day.
The only thing I will comment on right now is I don’t think Marquardt can stay with Sam on the bike. While Matt is no slouch on the bike, I don’t think he is at Sam’s level over 112 miles. But very very few people are.
[quote=“timbasile, post:6, topic:1281211”]
Coincidentally these are (other than himself) all the big hitters for the overall: Blu, Iden, Ditlev, Lange. [/quote]
I don’t think it is “coincidental” that the top 5 contenders are also very strong swimmers. They are obv the best athletes overall due to their ability to swim fast as well as bike and run fast.
Maybe it is because I tend to cheer my homies but… any changes for a Darkhorse like Benito?. I mean… I would say top10 but any changes of something higher?
Based on Strava, Iden and Blu are doing the same workouts so to me it seems he’s back to full strength. Whether that lasts a full IM is yet to be seen.
Doing the same workouts doesn’t mean hitting the same paces. They were training together before Challenge Samarkand 3.5 weeks ago, too, and Iden said in a post race interview that he knew he wouldn’t be able to keep up with Blu on the run (at least yet).
he should do well in kona sshould be ahead of lange in the water and has prob lange bike power and while not quite lange run speed he should have a top 5 run split in him
You sure about this? I was looking at both their strava’s yesterday and Blu is putting more run volume in than Gustav. Bike may be higher too but I didn’t dig too deep.
Here’s a(n always-up-to-date) list of those who have qualified to start:
https://www.trirating.com/mens-ironman-world-championships-2024-kona-oct-26th-startlist/
I am starting to get worried as nobody has mentioned good old Sanders in this thread yet 
I love that he is back in Kona
I think Benito has a chance at top 5. Guy is a beast of a swimmer/biker and runner. Question is how is he going to handle the weather and race dynamics and whether he shows up in peak shape.
Well on paper, Benito is 13-14 mins slower than our fastest athletes (Laidlow/Ditlev/Blu)
But Top5 is within reach.
Best Spanish Kona result ever was Eneko in 3rd??
His chances this year are arguably worse than usual, regardless of his form. Sanders needs a train of similar guys out of T1 and without Long or Skipper, he’s going to have to do most of the work himself.
I picked Lionel for 3rd place a few posts up. If he can somehow stick with Magnus or catch up quickly after T1 I think he can put himself in a great position out of T2.
Gustav does appear to be on way less volume than Blu. Gustav “only” ran 16 off the bike today to Blu 26…. Then again wasn’t Gustav less volume last time in 22?
Scott
FYI Blu did a 117mi bike 27.6 mph 26.2mi@6:20 pace brick today. Iden 56 and 16.3
