I’m putting together draft publicity story - I was wondering if anyone can give me or point me to any numbers on how many starters don’t finish a IM race on average. (or specifically IM Canada).
That portion of the story is just to illustrate an IM is not a walk in the park for everyone and 17 hours is not enough for some people.
Thanks - Martin
Just a thought:
Don’t they usually start about 2200?
And a search of the IM results page should show the number of offical finishers.
That portion of the story is just to illustrate an IM is not a walk in the park for everyone and 17 hours is not enough for some people.
IMO, that slant will not be proven with the data. My guess is the attrition rate is around 15% across the board, if not less.
There is a statistical insignificant amount of people who take over 17 hours.
DNFing and taking over 17 hours are totally different. Of course…if you finish in over 17 hours, that is a DNF (officially). But, my guess is that 99% of DNFs occur well before the 17 hour cut off.
You could bolster your point by noting the % of people who DNS. For a big chunk of them, they DNF’d the training.
Go to any IM web page and pull up “All finishers” typically it will show “All starters” not all finishers. Then they list all DNF’s. My experience under normal conditions the numbers are around 15% as someone else stated. Tough conditions its 20%+.
~Matt
I’ll take a wild stab at this and guess that the DNF numbers as a percentage have been increasing over the years.
I’ll take a wild stab at this and guess that the DNF numbers as a percentage have been increasing over the years.
Probably due to the popularity of the sport as it reaches the lower and lower strata of endurance athletes…similar to what happened to the marathon and mountain climbing.
No offense to those who struggle. I support anyone who puts in the genuine effort to complete the event…but it is no longer something that only the experienced and/or highly talented aspire to do (and I am well aware that many would consider me to be in the “doesn’t really belong there” camp).
That would be interesting to find out.
From what I’ve seen you have alot of DNF’s way at the front, folks that drop out knowing they have no chance to place. Then you have a larger group of folks that DNF in the REALLY competitive group that just push way to hard to early. Seems the folks in the middle and back aren’t pushing as hard and or aren’t willing to go to those limits and thus plod along and finish.
The DNF percent on not making the cut off is pretty small. I’m guessing the if the percentage has gone up at all it probably is not due to the growing “unfit” but to the growing competitive group.
~Matt
I remember reading in the athletes guide (when they actually used to print these out, so it probably Wisc 02 pr 03) that over the history of Ironman races 92% of the starters finished.
I’m putting together draft publicity story - I was wondering if anyone can give me or point me to any numbers on how many starters don’t finish a IM race on average. (or specifically IM Canada).
That portion of the story is just to illustrate an IM is not a walk in the park for everyone and 17 hours is not enough for some people.
Thanks - Martin
I actually think it is about 5%, certainly less than 10% for most races. I suspect there are a higher percentage of DNF’s amongst the pros than the age-groupers who tend not to race and take the race quite so seriously.
I also suspect the DNF’s are less than in a race like a marathon.
While it is not a walk in the park, it is quite doable for almost everyone. That to me is the more impressive statistic. It happens to be long enough that most people do some training for it and most people slow down and don’t pretend they have to race, at least the first one.
growing competitive group.
Matt,
The interesting thing is that with a few exceptions( certain key age-groups, say 40-44 men), the races are not that much more competitive these days than they were a number of years ago. I guess it depends on what your standards of competition are.
So here they are: (note I didn’t run the numbers for Arizona ‘cause I got a little bored…Also didn’t give seconds, but didn’t round either.)
Canada
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Avg 12:34 12:04 13:12 12:41 12:38 12:50 12:38 12:31 12:52 13:07 13:07
DNF N/A 65 249 117 124 145 86 94 111 185 177
Total 1507 1661 1719 1770 1785 1985 2032 1965 2166 2247 2352
% DNF 3.9 14.5 6.6 6.9 7.3 4.2 4.8 5.1 8.2 7.5
Florida
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Avg 12:03 12:25 12:24 12:32 12:22 12:21 12:37 12:44
DNF 69 129 101 106 79 83 123 83
Total 1545 1647 1818 1879 1991 2116 2058 2192
%DNF 4.5 7.8 5.6 5.6 4.0 3.9 6.0 3.8
Lake Placid
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Avg 12:41 12:41 12:34 12:58 13:01 12:46 13:05 12:53
DNF 80 106 155 128 162 78 145 115
Total 1461 1544 1808 1751 1835 1961 1997 2160
%DNF 5.5 6.9 8.6 7.3 8.8 4.0 7.3 5.3
Wisconsin
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Avg 12:51 13:30 13:18 13:50 13:26
DNF 73 270 214 395 266
Total 1802 1806 2187 2076 2439
%DNF 4.1 15.0 9.8 19.0 10.9
Couer D’Alene
2003 2004 2005 2006
Avg 13:13 12:55 12:50 13:27
DNF 230 161 103 287
Total 1574 1789 1761 2227
%DNF 14.6 9.0 5.8 12.9
Discuss as you like…
(Sorry for the poor formatting!!! It won’t put in the spaces where I want them!!!)
I wasn’t thinking of the AG’s being “More competitive” in the sense of more people right at the top or faster times. My point was that with a growing field in general there are more people “pushing” and trying to be competitive. It is this larger group that probably makes up for more DNF’s than the people in the MOP or BOP that are trying, but not really trying to push their limits.
~Matt
My guess is that there is a bit of survivorship bias in all of these numbers. The people that start an IM race are people who choose to be there. They have trained for it. Remember, when John Collins started this race, it took him over 17 hours, and he was betting with his friends about who was the most fit people, swimmers or bikers. He probably wasn’t your average couch potato.
The people who aren’t training, and aren’t reasonably fit, well, they probably can’t run a 5K, much less make the 140.6 effort of an IM.
For the first 15 years in Kona, sampling all 15 races, the number I took showed a 70% dropout rate…(sample of one) (-;
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Wow - 19% DNF in Wisconsin 2005…?? I know it was hot, but compared to the other races I’m surprised it was that high. And 15% just a couple years before that. Not good odds for a first time IM (like me) this year!!
IM Malaysia 2007
545 starters
464 finishers
14.86% DNF (81)
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Wow - 19% DNF in Wisconsin 2005…?? I know it was hot, but compared to the other races I’m surprised it was that high. And 15% just a couple years before that. Not good odds for a first time IM (like me) this year!!
Yep, believe it. That was my first IM, and it was one hell of a day. At the awards breakfast the next day Graham Fraser was calling it “carnageman”. The combination of wind, heat, hills, and humidity really did some people in.
Have a great time in September!! 
-C
Yes it my first IM as well. It was hot, humid and windy but doable. Just have to adjust the pace accordingly. You’ll do fine.
I’m going back this year so maybe I will see you there.