@sciguy “That’s quite the swim progression for GTB over several years”
I guess I didn’t realise your “several years” meant (think Methuselah) since 2017.
Even way back when, her ‘front swim pack’ (sometimes breakaway) % looks good.
A fresh chapter opening, anyway.
I assume son 
He is much lighter than that.
He just did a 17:50 xc 5k on pretty light running
She generally swims and runs faster than Knibb, Knibb obviously has a better bike, but GTB is probably 3/4 best biker ITU, she could possibly be one of a very few to challenge Knibb next year if she gets that TT dialled in.
No body generally swims faster than Knibb, she is a lead pack ITU swimmer and always has been. Now has she had some bad swims, yes of course, most everyone has including GTB. But Knibb came into triathon with a low 17 minute 1650 from college, same as Spivey and most other top women swimmers.
And if you mean generally runs faster until the last year, ok I give you that. but what matters most here, all the past years, or now?? Knibb can run with just about anyone too on her day, but of course she has the luxury of being able to do her own paced run with such big bike leads. But in the Paris test event and the olympic relay we got to see what she can do head to head against the very best runners…
If you want to beat knibb, you are going to have to bring something completely different from what is out there at the moment. Like Allistar or Gomez or Frodo, she has no weakness in the 3 sports and usually has to beat herself to lose a race. Not to say she cannot lose, but what non draft race can you think of now where she would not be the overwhelming favorite to win these days??
Kona
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She hasn’t always been a lead pack ITU swimmer, check out any race Learmonth was in.
Cast your mind back to when Knibb would be dragging half the field up to the front pack on the bike?
Fair enough, we’re going back a few years here, but we don’t really have much to go off Knibb hasnt raced that much ITU, GTB was out injured most last year and had been on the come back most this year, again ‘generally’ GTB swims and runs faster to my knowledge in the past (without cherry picking the odd race) im sure ITU results would reflect that.
Regardless my main point being, isnt it getting boring watching Knibb dominate MD, and GTB potentially being one of the girls to challenge.
I was thinking of Jimmy in his day.
Matthew is a great runner.
The only way to put pressure on a front of pack athlete is with other quality front of pack athletes. GTB def does that so at min she’s going to make the racing quality higher and more exciting. By default Knibb will be the favorite for just about any non draft race she enters for the next X years, maybe IM WC biggest question mark. So this is exciting!
[quote=“Lagoon, post:25, topic:1283674”]Not to say she cannot lose, but what non draft race can you think of now where she would not be the overwhelming favorite to win these days??
Kona
[/quote]
Wana bet??? (-;
I just saw him at the Grand Finale and he is quite muscular for a triathlete. Compared to say someone like MvR et al.
Next year is looking really competitive and I think Luis is going to be in the top 5 mix. Once he spends a bit more time on TT bike he could be outbiking even Margirier who is arguably, the strongest cyclist in mid distance.
I’ve been here 20+ years so to me 2017 is relatively recent history;)
Bookmarked for next time ladies line up in Kona. Who knows when that will be or who will be healthy, but I may be up for a wager.
I mean…that’s not actually fast for the athlete that he is…
No problem, always up for a wager. But our conversation here was about “favorite” going in. At least that was my comment, do you think that wont be the case//
I mean she was dam near or maybe was the last Kona, her first ever Kona and first ever Ironman distance race…Who do you think gets better pre race odds on the win than she does??
There is an article on TRI247 in which Louis states that he is not sure what GTBs plans are for the next couple of years.Sais it could be GTB s first and last long distance race. So not a given that she is moving up in distance. Personally would like to see her stay ITU. Just needs to get her front pack swim back.
I still think LCB goes in as the favorite if she lines up healthy at the next Kona.
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The run times were fast but the course was slightly short. My watch gave me 20.6km and from everyone I talked to the highest was 20.8km, so somewhere between 300-500m short.
oh thank god, now I feel much better about the Russian guy going 3:47 to win my AG (40-44) with a 2:01 bike split, and a 1:15 run 
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Well that is something I would bet you on right now, and we have betting lines to settle it. Of course a lot can happen between now and then, but Knibb winning everything from 100k to 70.3 over the years from last the last Kona, where she was also the favorite, well I think I know where the pre race money will go…Lucy now has to overcome another injury comeback and prove herself, which she did with flying colors last time around.
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I think she has her FP swim back doesn’t she? Im sure she has been making FP, its her run thats been letting her down.
Potter, CB and Tertsch have taken that up a level which she hasn’t been able to compete with coming off that injury lay off.