It appears the election in Iraq is off to a good start. The turnout looks strong and the terrorist attacks are less than anticipated. IMO whether the constitution is approved or not the process has been a success.
I still believe that we did the right thing in going to Iraq and that the entire region will benefit from the changes occuring there.
So how did it turn out?
So how did it turn out?
It went great! Even better than the election of the provisional government. We’re going to be out of there in no time flat, having midwifed a peaceful, stable democracy. Didn’t you get the memo?
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/10/17/iraq.vote.reut/index.html
Doesn’t look like there was much Sunni support for the consitution, but not enough opposition to block it.
Doesn’t look like there was much Sunni support for the consitution, but not enough opposition to block it.
In 2004, didn’t look like there was much Democrat support for Bush, but not enough opposition to block him.
Except at the time Democrats weren’t in armed rebellion against the government, and the election wasn’t touted as a grand hope for peace and reconcilliation.
edit: and now there’s talk of fraud allegations
I don’t see how the referendum can be spun other than as a success, but I’m sure some will try as you already seem to be.
Our own Constitution was not adopted without some battles. One of the 13 original US states, Rhode Island, refused to attend the convention called by Congress to revise the Articles of Confederation, which ultimately resulted in the draft U.S. Constitution. And, there were fierce fights over ratification of the Constitution in many states–it took almost three years for all 13 states to ratify it.
The Sunnis came out to vote in numbers far exceeding those in the first election and appear to be beginning to realize that ballots, not bullets, are the best way to decide their future. I predict even greater numbers will turn out next year for the new elections and the Sunnis will gain more representative numbers in the government.
Except at the time Democrats weren’t in armed rebellion against the government
Neither are the Sunni’s. Some of them may be to try and say all of them are is false at best.
Neither are the Sunni’s. Some of them may be to try and say all of them are is false at best.
Except that jhc didn’t say “all Sunnis are in armed rebellion.”
But I’m sure that the ones who are have changed their minds about the whole insurgency thing, now that there’s a constitution in place.
I don’t see how the referendum can be spun other than as a success, but I’m sure some will try as you already seem to be.
Well it’s not a total disaster, but what exactly makes this so successful? If there were indications than some noticeable percentage of Sunni’s supported the consitutiton I’d agree, but I’m not seeing that.
Our own Constitution was not adopted without some battles.
Not analagous to Iraq one bit.
The Sunnis came out to vote in numbers far exceeding those in the first election and appear to be beginning to realize that ballots, not bullets, are the best way to decide their future.
Yeah, I’m sure all the Sunnis who voted “no” will be thrilled with their participation in the political process after the consitutution is approved. What with the fraud allegations and all, and the charges that the Kurds manipulated voting in Mosul, and the obvious conclusion that as the minority their votes aren’t going to really change anything.
Where are these fraud allegations coming from? I have not read this from my list of ubiquitous yet mainstream (and usually credible) news sources.
Check that… my bad. I just saw something on MSNBC. We shall see if this is credible
I suspect, in large part, the issue will not be whether they are credible to an independent observer. Rather, it will more likely be whether those on the losing end of the election buy into the allegations.
On a separate note, I think it’s premature to say that the voting was a success. A better question will be whether the results are respected by those on the losing end. We don’t yet know the answer. So I’d be skeptical of anyone who tries to spin this one way or the other.
That they voted at all is a success in my book. The terrorists opposing the new government have murdered innocent children … making allegations of voter fraud is child’s play. Hell, just look at our last two elections. Allegations of voter fraud were made before the voting even started!
as the minority their votes aren’t going to really change anything.
Yep. It’s going to be real interesting to see what happens in the December elections, and then what happens in February. Let’s speculate wildly and guess that the Sunnis won’t have the political power to make any changes to the constitution. What happens?
Best case scenario is that the Shiites and Kurds make concessions in a bid to foster national unity. Worse case scenario is the indefinite prolongation of the insurgency.
A better question will be whether the results are respected by those on the losing end.
Pretty high standard considering in the USA the Democrats still haven’t gotten over the 2000 election loss.
Apples to oranges. First, Iraq doesn’t have a greater than 200-year history of respect for the democratic process. Second, Iraq has an armed and apparently organized insurgency waiting to expoit Sunni dissatisfaction. So maybe it’s a high standard, but I believe it’s a reasonable and necessary one. You can’t set the bar low and then pat yourself on the back for making it over. You can’t rejoice over a predictably smooth and uneventful voting process and not give a shit about whether it leads to civil war.
Frankly, I believe the prospects for peace may have been greater if the proposed constitution had been rejected. Sure, it would have required the Iraqis to start over in the process. But at least the Sunnis would have received some assurance that the process worked for them.
I wouldn’t go so far with the apples and oranges analogy but I will grant you that there are distinct time differences in the evolution of our respective democracies. The dissatisfied minority will be there regardless and the prospect for civil war will be in Iraq for some time. However, we shall see as this process evolves if there is enough concessions given by the Shia and Kurds to placate the majority of Sunnis’ to quell the insurgency. Even then, a certain level of insurgency is probably inevitable for a while. Given all of that, the democratic process in Iraq will be a protracted one, yet I see a glimmer of hope in what took place on Saturday.
By the way, when you say, “Iraq has an armed and apparently organized insurgency waiting to expoit Sunni dissatisfaction…,” I don’t think any of the insurgents are waiting.
I wouldn’t go so far with the apples and oranges analogy but I will grant you that there are distinct time differences in the evolution of our respective democracies. The dissatisfied minority will be there regardless and the prospect for civil war will be in Iraq for some time.
Let’s not forget that we had our own little civil disturbance nearly a hundred years after our Constitution was ratified…