Starting this early so that the women’s gets their due coverage in this forum and it’s not embedded in all the men pro hype. Lucy or Taylor won’t be first to Hawi this year for sure. By the time any women get past the energy lab turnaround, we’re ignoring their race in the hype of the men’s race.
Feel free to post any thoughts on how you think the race will shake out.
LCB and Taylor on another planet fighting for the win. Everyone else fighting for 3rd or maybe 2nd if one of the two repeats last year.
I wonder how much Taylor’s Kona build got disrupted by UCI worlds after Nice. There are a few days to taper for Nice, and Nice itself would be specific training. No clue how much tri training she skipped for Monteal. On the other hand, the rest to sharpen up for those two races could be useful. I got to chat with her on a training ride in Nice about all that. She’s just having fun racing from the sound of things. Lucy on the other hand is a former Kona winner and knows what those roses feel like. Lovseth basically biked as fast at Knibb last year in Kona and she also ran faster than Knibb this year in Nice (but Taylor did say she was going for the all time QOM on Vence and she even rode up that like 3 min faster than the Male 2016 cycling gold medalist GVa)
Loevseth and Derron on a good day can take both of them out! Pretty much they are my picks for top 4, unfortunately only 3 on the podium
Something seems off with LCB. I can’t put my finger on it, but she seems to be having confidence issues this year. I’m going to guess she hammers the swim and the bike to get as much of a lead that she can and then hope the others blow up before passing her. I’m putting Knibb and Løvseth passing her on the run though. Maybe even Chelsea 5th.
Løvseth
Knibb
LCB
??
Chelsea
Which is probaly allowed her to have a really good “reset” this year. Which I think is probaly exactly what she’s needed to stay in the sport. Is that a good enough pathway to winning a WC like Kona, TBD? It’s clear she can win 70.3’s on just about any pathway build. This “seasonal” plan will be fun to see how it shakes out for Kona prep.
I haven’t followed her interviews as much this year, but last year she seems to have had some relationship troubles at the start of the year which seems like it messed with her a bit. Anyone know if she’s been single this year? Curious if making triathlon her only love like KB seems to is the key for her.
I heard it slip out in an interview that she indeed does have a full-time boyfriend. Have no idea if civilian or athlete, but she seems to be happy with the situation..
She did at Oceanside
So does LCB put on the two piece in T2 like she did in Roth?
I think it depends on two things.
1. The data from Roth. Reese said they wanted to test some things but I don’t know if she measure core temp during the race. I would think she did.
2. Is she leading the race. Or is she behind and by how much?
I bet she doesn’t. I think it was a fun experiment but she probably goes back to the one-piece. I doubt that it made that much difference and the sleeved kit is just more aero for sure.
I think Taylor is on another level on the bike right now. I think she will dominate the bike and that she will be able to keep Lucy at bay. The humidity should be less this year and so should be less of a factor. I think it will shake out like this:
Yeah I’m thinking no as well.
Well on a random training ride in Nice where I ended up riding the descent off Vence with Knibb, she found out I was from Canada due to my cycling jersey and then offered up that her boyfriend was from Mississauga (a suburb of Toronto), to which I offered her my condolences….she asked why. To which I responded, “you’re going to race UCI worlds in my hometown where Eddy Merckx did the Giro/TdF/Rainbow triple, and the Montreal Canadiens are less inept than the Leafs…so we got a thing between Montreal and Toronto for over a hundred years”. In any case, she kind of chuckled and we wished her good luck in Montreal!!! So yes, she was not single at the start of Sep and seemed to just being enjoying life
…but that run that Lovseth put down in Nice. Granted it is possible Knibb was saving her legs for UCI worlds in Montreal with the win in the bag, but Lovseth’s run everyone should be worried.
Good interview with Paula
Solveig has earlier seemed to be quite straight–shooting when asked about her own form and fitness. I get the impression from the ironman video that somethings haven’t gone entirely smooth this year (compared to last year), so I am a bit unsure whether she will be fighting for the win.
Knibb seems to be in great bike-shape, no doubt about that. But great bike-performances derived from power (not aero) has a metabolic cost that might have to be paid late on the run. I think it will depend on her pacing on the bike and nutrition.
Lucy seems locked in.
I wonder how many Kilojoules Taylor needed on the bike last year in Kona vs Lucy. @Marcag may be able to estimate what it’s costing Taylor to T2. Does she share her race/training files anywhere?
I think he is very conservative in what she releases. I think that Nice climb is one of the few times she released power
She did a whole Youtube on aero testing without revealing a number.
I “think” last year was overheating rather than a bonk. Not sure how one figures that out.
Someone told me that Knibb said her core temp was 105f even 1 hour after she stopped.
