You’re using the Pats’ 2007 season as evidence of some post-scandal slump? They went 16-0 and broke the scoring record, averaging about 37 points/game.
Eli is almost certainly a HoFer. He’s one of only 6 QBs to have won 2 or more SB MVPs and all of those who are eligible are in the HoF, with Brady and Mahomes sure inductees when it’s their time. Aside from that, every starting QB with 2 or more SB wins (and eligible) is in the HoF except for Manning and Plunkett.
So far, 12 members of the 1970s-era Steelers are in the HOF, and LC Greenwood would make 13. The Brady-era Pats won’t get that many. Though, the Brady era SB wins were spread over a much longer period of time, so you don’t have the same kind of nucleus that the Steelers had, where many players were part of most/all of their SB wins.
I’d say Manning is more Plunkett than Brady, and probably remains/belongs on the sidelines of the HoF with him. Although I don’t see a revolt if he were to get in either. Leaning out.
Curiously, Plunkett and Manning both had exactly .500 regular season records. Though, Manning had a much longer career than Plunkett, and longevity should count. To Manning’s credit, he was not surrounded by a great deal of talented players on offense. To his discredit, winning half your games while playing for a team with a good defense is unimpressive.