This is a completely hypothetical question but is theoretically possible (I think) and I am curious to find out what people more educated in politics than me thinks.
Hypothetical #1. What if Senator Obama gets close to the 2025 delegates needed for the presidential nomination of the Democratic party (and pulls ahead of Senator Clinton/beats her).
Hypothetical #2. But despite hypothetical #1 What if all or the majority the approximately 800 super delegates pledge to Senator Clinton?
Obviously if this happened and Clinton loses to the Republican candidate there is a huge backlash. If she wins maybe not so big, but ultimately isnt the American trust betrayed IF such an action happens? Wouldnt this just disenfranchise all the people that actually turn out? Doesnt it just give credence to the mentality “My vote doesnt count anyway.” Wouldnt this turn into another Bush vs. Gore electoral vs popular vote kind of thing?
Hypothetical #3 What if former President Clinton (a super delegate) votes for Obama? (ok that is a troll question, but I am serious about the previous questions).
Disclaimer: I am 31 yr old who isnt even registered to vote, but will register and vote in this election.
You raise a very good question. Of course the 800 super delegates on the Democrat side of things are designed to keep “the wrong person” from their patchwork base from getting the nomination.
I could be wrong, its been a while but 2025 = game over. Superdelegates are placed and not obligated to support any candidate, but their votes are not worth more. The 2025 is a simple majority of all delegates, super and otherwise.
Ok so what i was trying to set up is a situation where Obama gets 2000 “voter determined delegates” and Hillary gets 1500 “voter determined delegates”, then enough “super delegates” (SD) get behind Hillary putting her over the top before Obama gets there.
Obviously SDs play a big role but if the hypothetical situation I have outlined happens doesnt it undermine the entire credibility of the democratic party? Wouldnt this be a suicidal move (especially if Hillary then loses to whoever the Republicans nominate)?
My understanding of the SDs is to “toe the party line” voters be damned. Which again to my understanding means elect the most viable candidate against the republican candidate even if it isnt who the “people” voted for.
You hit the nail on the head. This is why Hillary acted like she was a shoe-in. How many SDs will really go for Obama? Out of 842, you can probably add 800 right now to Hillary’s total.
I am not trying to hit the nail on the head by guessing/assuming who the SDs will vote for, I am asking what the general public will think (assuming most of the general public vote for Obama) if the SDs vote against popular (i.e. the people’s) opinion.
It’s my understanding Obama theoretically already has about 120 supers and Edwards had about 40. Obama’s team is very good at playing the game and I predict the supers for Clinton will only total about 500 before its all said and done. Just a pie in the sky guess, based on how savvy the Obama team has been at working the games.
Hypothetical #1. What if Senator Obama gets close to the 2025 delegates needed for the presidential nomination of the Democratic party (and pulls ahead of Senator Clinton/beats her).
Hypothetical #2. But despite hypothetical #1 What if all or the majority the approximately 800 super delegates pledge to Senator Clinton?
Obviously if this happened and Clinton loses to the Republican candidate there is a huge backlash. If she wins maybe not so big, but ultimately isnt the American trust betrayed IF such an action happens? Wouldnt this just disenfranchise all the people that actually turn out? Doesnt it just give credence to the mentality “My vote doesnt count anyway.” Wouldnt this turn into another Bush vs. Gore electoral vs popular vote kind of thing?
Hypothetical #3 What if former President Clinton (a super delegate) votes for Obama? (ok that is a troll question, but I am serious about the previous questions).
#1 could be a definite possibility this year, with a possible Democratic open convention (a condition created when no candidate comes to the convention with the requisite number of delegates needed to secure an outright nomination).
#2 is a reality. The majority of the superdelegates will be pledged to Clinton. This mechanism was created back in the mid-70s, after Carter stormed to the nomination (he wasn’t a favorite of the party bosses and their minions, so they wanted to ensure that such an offensive occurrence never took place again). The Clintons are expected to take full advantage of this hole card, and are counting on the bruised feelings of the losing candidate’s supporters to fade by the start of the general election campaign after Labor Day. They’re usually not wrong, knowing as they do the behaviors of the Democratic Party’s minority African American wing.
#3 would be quite a site to behold, but I think the chances of one of us hitting the Powerball jackpot for 300 million dollars are greater than it actually taking place.