Dosing your effort can make all the difference in the world in a short prologue. You want to cross the line as you blow, not too fresh and worst of all you don’t want to pop with 500m to go.
I think you’d want to hit the first hill very hard, power OVER THE TOP and get up to speed on the downhill portion. At that point you may want to “float” a bit depending on how you feel and how hard that last hill is. There is the potential to lose an enormous amount of time on that final hill if you hit it too hard. Keep that in mind! Also, make sure you have just enough left to power over the top of the first hill. If you start to blow with a couple of hundred yards left you will lose enormous amounts of time as you will be unable to quickly get up to speed.
Think of a prologue in terms of where is it possible to lose large chunks of time and make sure you mitigate that.
Example: There used to be a NRC stage race in Redding, CA called the Vulcan Tour. Here’s the prologue route: http://www.mapmyride.com/route/us/ca/redding/116125177756815944
Start at the river, climb to the dam, flat across the dam and then climb again. The tactic was to hammer the climb, FLOAT on the flat dam crossing and then be ready to hammer again on the last climb. Guys who went hard on the dam picked up a few seconds there but lost MANY more on the final climb.
Where do people gain big chunks of time in a TT? Generally on a climb or into a head wind. On a tail wind or downhill there usually isn’t much of a difference. Put your efforts into where you can make that difference.
Take the time to put on the 11x23. You can always not use that gear if you don’t need it. But you can’t use it if you need it but didn’t take the 5 minutes to change it out. 50x11 is plenty big I would think.
I would probably want to warm up a bit more than that. You need to be fully ready to go at the start.
Another prologue story, this one in Mammoth, CA. 6 miles uphill from about 7000’ to 9000’. We’re warming up on the course (which was okay for some reason) and watched a junior take off and pass us as he started his six miles. We caught him, totally blown about half way. We were cruising, not going hard at all. Balls to the wall didn’t work too well for him.
I can’t emphasize this enough. Good prologue riders think about where to put in their efforts.