It’s not a guess, it’s an estimate - and there IS a difference.
You can get a good idea of the margin of error for this type of test by re-reading the AC bike test on BTR. The MOE is well within the useful range for what you are doing, and is refine-able over time (like, with every single TT you do…)
Sure, it takes time. Would you rather use that time fishing on the internet for a “guess,” or do the work to come up with an estimate? Your choice… (and, really, it isn’t that time consuming to come up with a better set of numbers than just using the default…)
From what you have posted earlier, you are basing your entire season’s training on a Cda number, and resultant wattage figure, that is pure, unadulterated guesswork. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with that, but, hey, that’s just me!
- I AM NOT WRITING THIS TO BE A JERK!!!-
Remember Palomar? I asked how you got your target wattage, and well, basically, you just guessed at it -and blew up.
In all honesty, this was a really cool example for me, as a coach, and I thank you for being so candid, and providing the file. I am still in the process of crystallizing my views on wattage training, and you may have provided me with an excellent “con” or more appropriately, “learn from this” example.
To witt:
target wattage was chosen by desired time to finish, rather than by previously demonstrated cp60.
Rider was unable to maintain wattage, and fell below pace early, ultimately falling well below previously established CP level (which was significantly lower than target wattage.)
Result was potentially due to unrealistic CP, and was (potentially) a slower time than if rider had ridden to PE levels.
All very interesting, to me at least.
Thanks Gary, and apologies for drifting OT
.