How long will carbon be the frame material of choice, and what will replace it?

Having started cycling in 1984, when almost all the top-end bikes were steel (high-end Klein aluminum bikes were available then, as was the Vitus), and now seeing that every bike in the peloton at the TdF is carbon (aren’t they? Or have I missed something?), how much longer will carbon be the dominant frame material? Its hard to imagine what will replace it…you can mold it into all sorts of shapes, and once the expensive molds are built, you can pretty much crank those babies out (a gross over-generalization, I am sure, but still a lot different than hand-welding a steel frame). Is there anything out there on the horizon that can give carbon a run for its money sometime in the near or mid-future?

Spot

Carbotanium

They already have a car made out of it
.

Recycled running shoes?

I’ve been hearing about a new product similar to carbon fiber but with much higher strength-to-weight. It’s a polypropylene fiber. Apparently it’s starting to be used in the auto racing world.

yeah, look to F1 or NASA.

Not saying it will replace carbon, but i think there will be more ‘sustainable’ options… maybe including bamboo?

(thinking this through… that might happen more on lower end and commuter-ish bikes than the high-end stuff which is currently carbon)

Cardboard, baby…

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/06/17/cardboard.bike/

Thermoplastics. Like carbon, they can be manufactured and tweaked to yield whatever properties you want…stiffness, compliance, strength, weight. They are expensive to process and manufacture, though, and I’d be surprised if there are Asian places you can go to keep costs down. I know a small company in CO toyed with this in the mid-90’s on MTBs, but it didn’t take off. Cannondale has also used some thermoplastic in their previous Scapel rear triangle.

the only thing that will replace it is something similar.

better fibers, better glues.

its a near perfect material. you can shape it any way you want, and its strength to weight properties are insane.

Unobtanium. It is currently produced by Oakley.

Jack is on the right track. Advances in manufacturing methods, resins, layups, weaving, and CNT (nano-tubes) represent the future. I don’t know of any other material with so much future potential.

one downside is it will be hard for us, the consumer, to know which of the advancements are snake oil and which are real.

you will know someone is on to something with they invite you to take a hammer to their frame and try to break it.

(aptera did this with their composite body on their car!)

Jack is on the right track. Advances in manufacturing methods, resins, layups, weaving, and CNT (nano-tubes) represent the future. I don’t know of any other material with so much future potential.

What ever happened to boron? Lightweight was (is?) using it in some of their unobtanium wheelsets.

http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/21098/?a=f
.

Chucktainium…

It can’t be bought or sold…

you will know someone is on to something with they invite you to take a hammer to their frame and try to break it.

Not so sure. As we’ve gone from steel to aluminum to carbon, our frames have gotten much more susceptible to impact damage. The unidirectional fibers and low-resin layups so popular now make frames fragile one-trick ponies. It’ll take quite a revolution in material or process to change that trend.

Carbotanium

I say Contadorium.

Steel will come back.

Doesn’t Leonard Zinn make some of his bikes out of Magnesium or some other rarely used metal? I wonder why others do not do so.

Steel will remain a niche material now, as will titanium, and increasingly aluminum. Metal bikes have their own charms and advantages.

However, we will continue to see composites take over all areas of the market…mostly because it can be formed into shapes the metals just can’t match.