Help me over analyze my next marathon

The quick background. Not really a runner, did some in my early 20s, then dabbled, (5ks 10ks ETC) and then started to get more serious about it when I started doing tris around 30. I have done 4 Marathons and they have all been pretty bad. (Really bad is probably a better description) Have had good luck in HM, but never come close to putting it together for a full.
This year I have really been working on my run, the marathon I am doing has a pace group for my goal time, so I was thinking about doing that; but I have never run with a pacer at an event before. My last couple long runs have me thinking that I might be able to run in the pace group that is 10 min faster than my goal time.
Do I play it “safer” with the slower pace group? Try to go with the faster one and maybe blow up? Or just run on my own and see where I end up?

More details, please. Past results, training paces, weekly mileage (past/present), training structure/organization/plan, age/height/weight, motivation, etc.

I’d go with the slower group. You should be more relaxed if you are confident at that pace. Even more so because someone else is doing the clock watching. Either it proves the right pace or you get somewhere in the second half of the race and feel good enough to go a bit faster. Both are good outcomes.

If you go with the faster group there is a chance you aren’t settled and so aren’t running relaxed. A bad outcome could be dropping off that group and then have that feeling that you are done and the whole thing drags.

It all depends on how accurately you can predict your pace and what inspires/stresses you. You haven’t said what the group times are and how training has been going. Visualising a race can be useful, maybe mentally run through how both groups might go and see which you enjoy. How close each pace group would be to your half pb might tell you a lot.

Your question is a very personal one, so YMMV. I know my preference - would be go with the conservative pace group particularly if you struggled at the marathon so far. There is just no way to fully replicate the wall at race-pace even with a full a long training runs. One strategy I have heard and employed to some success is to go with the conservative pace group, something you are 99% sure you can complete, for the first 22-23 mi. If really feel the need to uncork it at that point then go ahead.

If nothing else, it’s a lot less mentally damaging to be in the unusual position to feel like you have another gear at mile 23, contrasted to the alternative situation, where you getting to about mile 15+ and realize you cant hang on to the pace and still have 8 miles to go. The latter is a little soul-crushing IMO. If you felt like you left something on the table the day after then go with the faster group next time for “good marathon #2”. But for the first not “really bad” marathon I’d go conservative. Good luck!

You’re probably wrong. But you never know until you try.

The best way to do this is to go with the faster pace group and then stop running when you hit the wall. Then, sign up for another race and do another training cycle and try again. That way, you’ll know.

Whatever you do don’t run with the fast group for 18mi, get popped, and then keep pushing the last 8 trying to survive. You’ll shred yourself and you won’t recover for months.

Eric

The quick background. Not really a runner, did some in my early 20s, then dabbled, (5ks 10ks ETC) and then started to get more serious about it when I started doing tris around 30. I have done 4 Marathons and they have all been pretty bad. (Really bad is probably a better description) Have had good luck in HM, but never come close to putting it together for a full.
This year I have really been working on my run, the marathon I am doing has a pace group for my goal time, so I was thinking about doing that; but I have never run with a pacer at an event before. My last couple long runs have me thinking that I might be able to run in the pace group that is 10 min faster than my goal time.
Do I play it “safer” with the slower pace group? Try to go with the faster one and maybe blow up? Or just run on my own and see where I end up?

My last couple long runs have me thinking that I might be able to run in the pace group that is 10 min faster than my goal time.

In general I would say that is a really horrible idea. But I would need some more info to confirm this…

What is your goal time? What is your marathon PR? What is your half-marathon PR? When were each of those PRs? What pace have you been running one your last couple long runs? And did you stop or pause at any point during these runs?

I’ve never been able to rely on pacers for one simple reason: They’re not robots. Each pacer has their own style, their own plan, their own flavor of how they will get you from start to finish line in X amount of time, which may be nothing like how you’ve been training. Some negative split the race. Others push the pace and walk aid stations. Others will set their cruise control out of the gate. So, that’s a big issue to overcome without even introducing your ambitious idea.

What I’ve done in the past is line up between two pace groups. One to chase and the other to chase me, and that’s motivation from either end without getting caught up in trying to “match” someone else’s pace. I would not even worry about my time until the last 10k or so, and maintaining a cruise control speed to get you through the first 32k by playing small games with pacer spacing- get too close to the front and you know to back off a bit. Get caught up to and realize you need to dig a bit.

The only choice is the faster choice.

“The best pace is a suicide pace, and today is a good day to die.”

I don’t know if Pre really said that, but he ran like he said it.

Go out fast and then hang on. That’s how you find out who you are.

I love that quote.
More info as requested.
Right now I run about 20-30 MPW. Bike + Swim for total of 10-12 HpW of training.
Previous HM PR is 1:32, Marathon PR is 4:45. Not all the issues have been endurance. Had some nasty blisters in 2 of them, and some chaffing in another. That said I have not felt great after mile 13 before.
Goal was to run a 3:45 for the marathon. Been feeling pretty good on my runs of late. On Sunday I ran 16 miles at 8:00/Mile with my fastest mile 7:48 and my slowest 8:22. (was not shooting for that pace, ran off feel just looking at mile splits) Race is September 29th. And if current path continues I would likely be 8LBS down based on the last years weight loss trend. (I have heard 1LB is good for 2 seconds per mile but I know that is just a range)

Eric

I take it back, you might need to go slow, but going faster is so much fun! Good luck

And yep it’s a minute per pound over 26.2mi

E

I love that quote.
More info as requested.
Right now I run about 20-30 MPW. Bike + Swim for total of 10-12 HpW of training.
Previous HM PR is 1:32, Marathon PR is 4:45. Not all the issues have been endurance. Had some nasty blisters in 2 of them, and some chaffing in another. That said I have not felt great after mile 13 before.
Goal was to run a 3:45 for the marathon. Been feeling pretty good on my runs of late. On Sunday I ran 16 miles at 8:00/Mile with my fastest mile 7:48 and my slowest 8:22. (was not shooting for that pace, ran off feel just looking at mile splits) Race is September 29th. And if current path continues I would likely be 8LBS down based on the last years weight loss trend. (I have heard 1LB is good for 2 seconds per mile but I know that is just a range)

Eric

When things fall apart, what is it that’s going on? Legs? Energy? Focus? All that and more?