First off congrats on a Kona slot Ed. I have done Hawaii 70.3 twelve straight years on three different run courses and here are my thoughts:
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I have done St Croix 2 x and I thought that was the toughest until they put the run 90% on the golf course in Hawaii. Now I can say I am confident you won’t find a slower sun course regardless of heat. When Macca/Crowie/Armstrong/Bennett etc use to race here they did the one loop run with tons of street running and crowie never broke 1:21. It’s at least 3-4 min slower than that course now.
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I did Wildflower 2 x and super tough bike (if hot and windy) and run but the swim was flat out a drag race. Honu and St Croix ocean swims are minutes tougher. Wildflowers run was KNARLY but guys like Jessie and Terrenzo went low there…they would not go that low on this course.
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2021 conditions at Hawaii 70.3 were far from what we can normally see. The crosswinds did not cut speed if your able to stay aero. I feel the bike this year was actually fast as the course is by far slower on paper than last years course. The climb out of Mauna Lani itself is 1.45 miles from the round about. You don’t ride 2:08 as a AG (Justin) if the conditions are brutal. I would bet anything you won’t find a slower 13.1 run off the bike on the circuit….just no footing and no chance to gain momentum.
We were discussing ST G vs Honu with a few athletes that did it this year and they all said not even close. Most were 20-35 minutes slower at Honu.