I ask this question in all seriousness, as I’ve noticed that many bikes now have emulated the rear cut outs and curved cut outs seen in the P3 and P2. Other bikes have newer and perhaps more innovative design features such as the Felt DA or BMC or Look bikes. Still others are cheaper while offering nearly as much performance. Moreover, aside from the prologue, Cervelo seems not to be really competitive in the other TT in the TdF or other stages.
I ask this question in all seriousness
And unless you’re on the bike business, that makes me question your mental sanity.
Show me a big graph with wind tunnel tests of all of these bikes and I will get back to you
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The competitiveness of Cervelo (or any other brand) in the TTs or any other stage of the TdF has nothing to do with the bike, but rather has all to do with the rider(s) sitting on the bike.
At the top level, ALL of the bikes used are of sufficient quality as to not hinder their riders.
I ask this question in all seriousness, as I’ve noticed that many bikes now have emulated the rear cut outs and curved cut outs seen in the P3 and P2. Other bikes have newer and perhaps more innovative design features such as the Felt DA or BMC or Look bikes. Still others are cheaper while offering nearly as much performance. Moreover, aside from the prologue, Cervelo seems not to be really competitive in the other TT in the TdF or other stages.
many are asking the same question and despite all the cervelo marketing hype i do think with the exception of a few cubicle rats (paula and jackie) the cervelo perception is going downhill
It is in my mind. I was telling someone the other day that I thought the Soloist was still a pretty cool bike, but all the other companies had caught/passed Cervelo in the tri bike market.
There’s only so much you can do with a double diamond style frame and the aero technology has probably more or less peaked with this type of frame. Cervelo came out with some very good ideas that have been more or less copied by some other companies. It’s probably going to be tough to improve aerodynamics to any significant degree on the current line up of high end tri/TT bikes. Maybe Cervelo will have surprises when the P4 comes out, but it’s as difficult for them to improve on the current designs as it is for anybody else.
that’s only impressive if you know how many watts they were putting out and how fast they would have gone on another frame. i.e. maybe they would have won by a lot more if they were riding a p3c. Or maybe csc’s drug testing is working, etc.
The answer is “that depends”. Cervelo has grown up significantly over the past 3 - 5 years, from a boutique bike company with great science and engineering to more of a mass market appeal model. In its early incarnations there was a cult appeal and you could get the Cervelo boys to respond to your posts over here. However, now its gotten to the scale where it’s now a significant business. They supply a TdF team and then have major retail supply commitments. So the company may have peaked if you think it jumps the shark when you start referring to it in the same breadth as Trek, Specialized, etc., but the company clearly has plenty of more room to expand their market position and make great bikes. I’m not a Cervelo fan, but I appreciate them as a company. This isn’t about did their bikes win TdF time trials, that’s not what this is really about.
If you use more objective measures than the perception that “other people have cutouts now too” you would see that Cervelo needn’t worry too much on the design/technology front.
What they do have to worry about is consumers thinking that they can get most of the performance for a fraction of the cost - therefore they will certainly come out with something new at some point. If they come out with nothing new henceforth then we could look back in 5 years and say “cervelo peaked in 2007” - the bikes will still be among the best in 5 years though so it would be a relative statement.
Most of the “newer and more innovative design features” are recycled old ideas and mostly they are different rather than better.
“Cervelo has grown up significantly over the past 3 - 5 years”
You’re right on the money. Cervelo is the “little bike company that grew”. Consider that the first Cervelos where made in Phil’s apartment. It’s amazing that Gerard still finds time to post here once in awhile.
Focusing too much on tech development and weight is a fool’s errand.
As with many things, the RIDE, feel, and stability and handling of the bike can be important factors in the overall balance of the equation. Obviously, the design and execution of a good road bike is much different than a TT bike. There’s a huge difference in my mind between Pinarello’s carbon fiber bike and Time’s. And my all aluminum DeRosa is lighter, and rides better and more stable, than a few all carbon fiber bikes that I’ve ridden.
That’s not even talking about fit, which is one of the most important factors. Some people fit better on a more traditional geometry than a sloping top tube geometry…
Finally, just because a bike is more aero in a wind tunnel, - doesn’t mean that it’s going to ride well descending through sharp curves on steep grades…
All manufactuers have peaks and valleys - that’s the business. Cervelo has been enjoying a great run, has done a good job of marketing, R&D, and damage control when their manufacturer let them down a bit. There’s no way they, or anyone, can ride the wave for too long, but I doubt there’s been much downswing in sales - just grassroots hype.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when the big boys look over their shoulders, I think Felt is the “small” company they worry about the most - a company only eight years old and coming on as quickly as they are is worrying, I’m sure. Maybe not losing sleep, but watching carefully, no doubt. Plus, Felt offers an ever-widening range of products, which cuts into sales at virtually all price points. Dang, sounds like I’ve drank too much Koolaid lately…
It did have a little help from the Canadian government somewhere in that timeframe. Not to be discounted in the acceleration of the company’s evolution.
Rascal,
“Peaked” to me implies that they have reached the top and can go no higher. Perhaps they have reached a plateau, but I don’t think they’ve peaked, either in terms of design or market share.
In a short period of time they have managed to create an incredible and revolutionary line of bikes. Topping that will be tough. As others have mentioned, a) you can only do so much in the limitations of a double-diamond frame, and b) their designs have now been well-duplicated. Another revolution may be difficult to produce anytime soon; evolution, on the other hand, is ongoing. Their designs will likely continue to evolve and improve, and people will still want to purchase their bikes.
mm
Cervelo is a great brand indeed but no matter how great a brand is it will eventually peak.
Along those lines I have noticed that the sub line of Cervelo was changed to “enjoy.engineering” versus the older “vroomen / white design”.
Does that mean Cervelo is possibly for sale? And I do understand that everything is for sale at the right price.
So that is not what I am talking about.
Herbert
I’m still waiting for the Cervelo mountain bike line…
I agree with you; however, from a marketing perspective winning this time trials, etc. has a huge impact on marketing and advertising. Moreover, from public perception perspective if your bikes aren’t making the telecast in the TdF then you aren’t do as well. Cancellara holding the yellow and winning the prologue certainly helps; however, there are plenty of other bikes with cut outs and “look” aero. Also for the other TT Cervelo didn’t win. Sure it has to do with the rider, but look at all sports advertising from Gatorade (Michael Jordan), Nike (Jordan and Tiger, etc.), You think that those guys were successful because of the equipment or drinks they used or because they are awesome athletes. Certainly it is because of their athletic talent however that didn’t stop Nike from building a huge market share on top of Jordan’s success or Tiger’s success in golf.
For the wind tunnel question. No company that I know of provides this sort of data in their advertising materials. Thus it makes it more important IMO to have your bikes win stages in the TdF and overall. Let’s see Trek has won the last 8-9 TdF and multiple Time trials. That doesn’t hurt. When other bike companies are making “cosmetically” similar products and doing as well or better then maybe Cervelo has peaked.
I’m still waiting for the Cervelo mountain bike line…
Based on what Gerard has said I hope you aren’t holding your breath while you wait.
I guess it really depends on how you define peak. It seems they have pretty well saturated the North American market; however, what is their penetration Europe or Australia? I have a feeling they have a pretty good grasp of what markets they are doing well in and which markets they can continue to grow in. I have a feeling if you ask Gerard if they have “peaked” he will tell you no. In the end all that matters is that they have a good plan to continue to grow and that they execute that plan.