I’ll give you a mind blowing scenario for you that is able to happen that leaves you WTF.
Knibb and Spivey make the team w/ GJ 3rd discretion pick. GJ “skips†(DNS) the individual race to save it for the MTR and then she isn’t picked for the MTR. She could be an actual Olympian that doesn’t participate in the actual Olympics.
There is no rule that requires athletes to actually race the individual event, only they are required to take up said roster race spot (you can’t use a substitute unless actually injured).
Totally possible (it happened to Richard Murray in Tokyo, although in his case it wasn’t that he wasn’t selected, it was because they had to scratch their relay, so he was stuck racing a mini-tri around the olympic villiage and streaming it on YouTube), but will require some serious results from GJ to even get selected… Gwen announcing a comeback could go any other way than how it went down, it’s going to make a splash when a former olympic champ un-retires. That said, I wonder how clearly she understands the current state of qualification/selection, that there are no relay specific slots, and that a quota spot is a quota spot. With the depth that the US currently have on the ladies side, that likely means getting into the top 30 in the world to even enter the conversation. Her hitting the minimum ranking for selection will be relatively simple (although she’ll want a fast and furious first part of the season before qualification window 1 closes, because you can only count 6 results in any one window towards your OG ranking, but up to 11 total, not posting more scores in the first window is what screwed GB leading into Tokyo, and specifically screwed Ali Brownlee), it’s making any sort of convincing argument for a discretionary pick that will be tough. I would say her best route in was to get a result that auto qualifies, but not sure that she can find that type of form by the test event. Either way, this struck fear in the hearts of all of the other American women, because it increases the pressure to get an auto-slot, since it’s one more variable in the discretionary selection gong show…
We’ll see too if she sticks it out until then, or has a change of heart when she sees how racing has changed. The sport was starting to shift when Gwen got her gold, With Flora taking her first world title that year, but it was really the next year, that the women’s event changed with enough athletes who could seriously disrupt the race with their swim/bike (and the year after that when more of those swimmers upped their run…). GJ’s run is still there, but like Mario Mola, may be completely irrelevant if she’s getting lapped out/too far back after the bike… And not only has the swim gotten much faster, but there are also fewer horses in the chase to close on the breakaway, with Ash Gentle and Jodie Stimpson going long, Spirig & Holland retired, and Jo Brown back in school, there aren’t many people left that can drive a serious chase to close down the leaders. There’s maybe some ladies like Beth Potter who fit that archetype, but her swim is stronger than GJ was, so it would be a chase even to catch up to her… I hope she gives this comeback a solid try and is somewhat relevant in the OG conversation, just to add some intrigue, but also fear that she gets to like 99th in the world, and then gets selected with a discretionary pick, denying multiple women of a slot who are top 30 ranked, and legitimate threats. She also announced this too late for other women in the program to consider switching nationalities (Both Kasper (Candian born) and Spivey (mom is Canadian) could race for Canada, but it’s too late at this point to make the switch on time for Paris).