It seems to be that buying a bike is like buying a computer, there is no RIGHT TIME to do it, because technology is always advancing. But some times are better than others to buy, and now seems like one of the better times for bikes. With the recent additions of DA 10-speed, Ultegra 10-speed, P3 Carbon, Lucero, etc., it seems like the top tech might not change much for the next 4 or 5 years. Of course, in those 5 years, the tech will trickle down to more affordable prices, and then there will be another leap at the top end. But if you are going to get a top-of-the-line machine, now seems like a pretty good time.
I could, of course, be totally wrong, and there could be a revolution coming next season. Thoughts?
I think it’s a GREAT time to buy a very good 9-speed group for less!
One of the new carbon-fiber bikes? The way they burst onto the scene this year, I’ll guess their prices will drop some as soon as the initial excitement has passed.
I really wonder how much of this is genuine performance improvements rather than just market hype. It seems that the bike industry builds in deliberate obsolence, or wants it perceived that way, in order to sell more bikes.
Watch carbon prices fall over the next couple of years and then some other material being promoted as the latest and greatest.
In terms of groups, you’re right, the new generation D10 group and U10 will probably go largely unchaged for a while. They will continue to shave 20g/year from the group and probably add some CF or Ti parts, but the basics will be the same. You won’t be able to complain in 3 years that your D10 group you bought this year is a piece of crap.
D10 is for real, it is not hype. And I’ll write something here that all ST goers will never believe - Ultegra 10 is nearly every bit as good as D10.
No, I didn’t mean good in terms of price. Of course the prices are very high on the new products. I meant good in terms of technology; that is, there is a good chance that there won’t be a major tech change in the next 5 years.
I’m a bit disappointed in the transition from 9 to 10. Net result, are being PUSHED into upgrading now that we know 105 is going that route. I would not invest any money into 9 speed dinosaurs anymore, which is really too bad.
I think the biggest problem right now is cranks/bottom brackets. The new DA crank is simply awesome, but lack of compact has a few pansies upset. I kinda wish the whole compact thing never happend…just a bunch of people who needed triples, but were embarrassed to ride with them, which created front derail issues. With this change comes the whole notion of integrated bb…which brings up the oversize drama and debates against standards. The story will simply never end…
But, it seems as though the bike industry is dead set of residual revenue from forcing product lifecycles…
We need a “used car parts” type of availability for bikes!
I agree, 9 speed Shimano stuff is getting harder and harder to get. I am sure cogs will be around for a while, but am not too sure STI shifters are even available except on the Ebay and NOS in a few shops. Brakes, cranks, and BB shouldn’t be too tough for a few more years. but the new style cranks/bb are in both the road and mtb groups so I would look for some more trickledown into the 105 level in the next few years as well. Good luck G
If I get a new bike, I really want to stick with 9-speed because I use PC’s, and they aren’t compatible with the new shimano cranks. Since I don’t really want to switch BB’s a couple times a month, I think I’m stuck with getting the old crank. Not that this is a bad thing, I’ve been riding the 9 speed DA crank for years and I love it. Is the integrated really that much nicer?