US futures trading ominously today, whats the outlook?
One view being that this is almost as bad as it can get or is it?
I know I’ve taken a hiding over the last 3 months to the tune of more than 20%
I hope those who panic everytime the stock market goes down start selling so I can buy more bargains. Five years from now, my stocks will be significantly up and those who sold, will only have realized losses that they are carrying forward on their tax returns.
It’s all been done many times in the last 30 years.
I hope those who panic everytime the stock market goes down start selling so I can buy more bargains. Five years from now, my stocks will be significantly up and those who sold, will only have realized losses that they are carrying forward on their tax returns.
yes, because I am sure that people who bought tech stocks in 2000 were raking it in by 2005, oh, wait…
If you think that is bad, take a look at the Nikkei. I don’t know if it’s incompetence or what, but the Japanese seem to have no clue on how to manage their economy. They’re at the same levels they were trading at 20 years ago. There would be blood in the streets if the US market performed like Japan.
yes, because I am sure that people who bought tech stocks in 2000 were raking it in by 2005, oh, wait…
Hey, if you bought the RIGHT tech stocks, you did fine. I bought a ton of AMZN when it bottomed out around $12/share back in 2002. I did pretty well on that one. Of course, anyone who invested heavily in say, pets.com, well, yer screwed.
I hope those who panic everytime the stock market goes down start selling so I can buy more bargains. Five years from now, my stocks will be significantly up and those who sold, will only have realized losses that they are carrying forward on their tax returns.
yes, because I am sure that people who bought tech stocks in 2000 were raking it in by 2005, oh, wait…
if they purchased the right ones, yes they are.
US futures closed at down 520, translating to about a 544 pt drop in the DOW tomorrow morning. As far as I could see, volume was pretty high, so I don’t think was a liquidity driven drop, given the other things going on.
Tomorrow should be rather ugly.
No this is not as bad as it can get.
Normally, one needs to see signs of capitulation; i.e., everybody selling who is going to sell. At that point, you start seeing some flattening out and accumulation. We obviously haven’t seen that yet, and even if we drop 5% tomorrow, my sense is that we won’t yet.
First of all, there are still losses in the housing market to be written down by the banks. Likewise, the consumer will not only take these hits, but will probably both reduce spending and take hits in car and credit card loans. These will then flow through. So it will at best take 6-9 months before we get real visibility on whether we’re done yet.
The other risk is that we get contagion - we’re seeing it already in the Asian and European markets. My fear is that it flows through to the commodity markets, where I have exposure. I’m equity market neutral, although not as neutral as I was on Thursday, so a market downturn won’t affect me meaningfully, but drops in grain and ag prices could really hurt tomorrow.
There seems to be a real disjunction between the market and government policies at this point. The Administration has been largely too busy cheerleading to take real action, and the market rendered its opinion of that proposed action on Friday. Bernanke has been probably a little disconnected to the markets to move decisively and possibly because he doesn’t want to appear like he’s beholden to a bunch of traders. But if it turns out the market is predicting the fundamentals better than he has, then he’s got a real problem.
As for thinking you will pick off stocks that are now cheap and getting cheaper, that’s fine, but as somebody pointed out, there will always be guys who think that if they loved a stock at $100, they’ll really love it at $50, $40, $30, $20, and will be still saying it at $3. Be careful what you wish for, and don’t overestimate your own stock picking ability. Markets typically do perform well after burping out bubbles, but you still have to trade off buying the market versus trying to make individual picks, which is a lot different.
**yes, because I am sure that people who bought tech stocks in 2000 were raking it in by 2005, oh, wait… **
It’s a good thing then that I didn’t fall for the tech hype in 2000. As an avid investor and one who can actually read financial statements, I ignore what many try to sell and actually look at areas that are important in assessing a company’s future earnings potential.
Those who make investment decisions because they heard a hot tip or because everyone else is doing it are probably not going to do too well. The markets are down, they have been down before and they will be down again.
Those who sell everytime things go down do not really understand the market and that is great for me. I’m doing my research now and biding my time to buy and am thankful for those who feel that you should sell when a stock goes down.
All of the Asian markets are falling like a house of cards tonight. It’s looking very bad. Anyone who thinks things can’t get worse needs to look at Japan in 2004.
This guy’s video and his blog show that he’s pretty unhappy with this weekend’s performance.
Don’t worry, our Prez is going to sell a shitload of T-Bills to give every taxpayer an $800 “stimulus” package to fix 7 years of fiscal irresponsibility and economic infrastructure incomptence. Buy long.
Adjusting for inflation, the US market is where it was 10 years ago. Not as bad as Japan, but nothing to brag about.
I’m an equities trader for a Japanese Long/Short hedge fund, and it’s just awful tonight… topix down 5.3%, nikkei off 5.5%. The rest of Asia is equally bad: HK now -8%, China -5%, Taiwan -6.5%, Korea -7%, Australia -7%. My guess we don’t get much short covering into the close either. And as I type this, market and adv/dcl to new lows. Yuck.
Not going to be a good start to the UK day or to the US day when it rolls around.
Which city are you in ryanp100?
I’m in Seattle… a little under 30 minutes until close. I came in virtually neutral, covered half my tpx futures on the gap down and then reshorted on a mid-morning bounce. With BAC announcing tomorrow premarket, the US will almost certainly go fast in an ugly direction. Not being a US fund, I don’t get realtime US index futures on my Bloomberg, but I’m showing down 490 points on a 10 minute delay.
Yeah, it’s looking very bad for tomorrow.