A few reasons, some which may be area specific. In general, it feels like trades as a meaningful career has “peaked”. When I graduated highschool in the early 00’s, the prevailing wisdom from parents, guidance councilors and teachers was “just get a degree, any degree, and you’ll have a job for life”. That may have been true for the previous generation, but certainly didn’t prove true for mine and moreso the next gen of kids. I feel like we are at this point with trades. People like myself got in to the trades in a sweet spot. Lots of boomers were retiring, wages were pushed up, but the industry hadn’t really modernized so there was still a large demand for high skilled workers.
Now, due to cost and profit pressure, various shortages, and a drive for efficiency the industry is adapting and changing.
In Canada, we are expanding our temporary foreign worker program, which floods labour markets with cheap labour that the government subsidizes, to the skilled building and trade sector. This is going to suppress wages (which is already happening in the field) and make it incredibly difficult to land an apprenticeship.
Secondly, building is becoming a lot more modular. I feel like the value of a knowledgeable journeyman is becoming diminished as most of their decision making is now being made by engineers and design in pre-construction. As building processes become more efficient it is becoming more about low skilled assembly than highly skilled craftsmanship. A construction crew used to have a pretty healthy ratio of journeymen to apprentices. The journeyman would work, the apprentice would help. Now, it’s typically one journeyman on a crew and cheaper apprentices doing the bulk of the work. The journeyman just supervises. The tradesperson of the future will not have a broad spectrum of experience but a very narrow area of expertise, which will eventually be turned in to a job someone cheaper with less experience can do.
There will always be the service side of things, the industrial sector will be going strong and some cushy union jobs will persist for a while. But I see the commercial and especially residential sectors becoming a lot less lucrative for tradespeople.
Personally, I would caution people going in to the trades to see it as a stepping stone to something else perhaps trades-adjacent. Use the apprenticeship time to build as much skill and knowledge as you can, and after a few years as a journeyman move on. Sales, management, real estate, building tech, engineering etc.