HIM tomorrow, my swim wave is #6 out of 8.
If things go as planned I’ll be top 10% AG, all 3 disciplines equal relative to the field.
Based on the late wave start, should I swim harder to pass more people in the water so I have more open road on the ride, and take it easier on the bike (but end up with the same bike split because of less traffic)? Or just race my race and let it shake out?
Race your race.
I did two HIMs last year and was in late waves for both - if anything, the later wave helped as I did a ton of slingshoting by people and I don’t recall ever being held up by people. These were both IM 70.3 races with 2500ish people.
Just be prepared to start passing slower swimmers from the preceding groups within a few minutes of the start until the swim exit. Whether that means being mentally ready to swim over/around people or swimming a bit outside the turn buoys to avoid congestion depends on the course.