Disk how much faster?

I know this has been covered ad nauseum here, but I wanted to get the ST weigh in on a discussion we had at the Virginia State Time Trial Championships yesterday.

As people were waiting for the results, we were discussing the benefits and speed enhancements of a disk wheel. People theorized that it ranged from 5 - 10 seconds to 4 - 5 minutes faster using a disk over a Zipp 404. So all things being the same, if I was to ride a 23 mile TT over a relatively flat course (60’ rise overall) what kind of a time savings say you? Or in this case loss since I rode the disk instead of the 404.

Course:
Lolly pop with the stick being 6 miles

Conditions:
92 degrees
5-7 mph head wind on the way out and switched to a cross wind on the way back (of the stick of the lolly pop)
26 mph avg over the course (assume even)

Wheels in question:
Zipp 404 non-dimpled
Renn disk

The Nytro website ( http://www.nytro.com/Articles.asp?ID=118 ) has the following table comparing different types of wheels. If you buy into this information then a disk vs. 404 rear wheel should save approximately 20 seconds over 40k so for a 23 mile TT it would be about 18 seconds.

Approximate time savings are: 40K Savings Ironman Savings Front Xlab / Hed Alps / Zipp 404 64s 4m 48s 3 spoke / Zipp 808
82s 6m 9s Rear Xlab / Hed Alps / Zipp 404 38s
2m 51s 3 spoke / Zipp 808
49s 3m 40s Disk 58s 4m 21s ****