Did Derek Jeter Deserve the Gold Glove?

The Coffee Shop
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We spent this past weekend at the lake. For me, that means no XBOX360 or internet to occupy the “can’t sleep” hours. So, on the way I picked up “Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong.” It’s a book by the Baseball Prospectus guys, and is waist-deep in the current conflict between the “number’s guys” and “gut feeling guys”, and has caused everyone to examine the way we think about traditional (and possibly wrong) ways we look at stats like ERA, RBIs, OBA, etc. I’m enjoying the book, b/c as a lifelong player/coach, I have heard repeatedly some of the claims/beliefs that the numbers challenge (Sac Bunts, Stolen Bases, 4 0r 5 man rotations, closers only in the 9th, etc).

Obviusly, they use Jeter as a title header as oppossed to Omar Infante b/c Jeter is a lightning rod for attention (i.e., sales) and he’s a polarizing figure. You’re either a “Jeter is God” or “Jeter is over-rated” guy (seemingly).

Here’s the gist …

THey introduce that "commonly used defensive characteristics are terribly and perhaps irrevocably flawed." In short, errors only count for the balls players GET TO, and they balls guys get to vary greatly depending on ability. In other words, a guy can have a great fielding percentage but not be a great fielder.

They also highlight the error of human memory, “Human memory is one of the worst data-collection devices in the world.” Any baseball fan has no doubt seen multiple clips of Jeter jumping in the air, and launching a throw to first base, diving into the stands or the flip to Posada tagging out Jeremy Giambi (ALDS), and those over the shoulder catches, and these serve as out “Jeter is OUTSTANDING!” moments … just like Joe Carter’s RBI totals and walk-off 3-run bomb skew our vision of him as a productive “clutch” hitter. We are predominantly a “highlight reel” fan-club, with web gems serving as our source of “who’s great”.

Clay Davenport developed “Fielding Runs” (FR) as a measure of comparing fielders at the same position across different eras of baseball. FR use 5 adjustments to each fielder’s situation to better estimate his total chances: park factor (to avoid punishing left-fielders that don’t scale the wall at Fenway, for example), total balls in play allowed (to avoid punishing infielders with strikeout heavy pitching staffs), groundball/fyball tendencies (obvious), pitcher handedness (obvious), and men on base (i.e., positioning of fielders).

Note: Fielding Runs does not translate to “runs given or taken away”, but is just a measure of how many balls a plyer gets to and how they field the ones they do, as a means of assessing a fielder’s value.

Here’s Jeter’s stats:

Year / Rate / FRAA / FRAR / Rank

1996 / 88 / -18 / 14 / 30 of 26
1997 / 89 / -17 / 15 / 24 of 26
1998 / 95 / -7 / 23 / 19 of 29
1999 / 90 / -15 / 17 / 20 of 24
2000 / 88 / -17 / 14 / 26 of 28
2001 / 85 / -22 / 8 / 24 of 26
2002 / 89 / -17 / 14 / 26 of 28
2003 / 80 / -23 / 1 / 25 of 26
2004 / 98 / -3 / 27 / 13 of 26
2005 / 104 / 6 / 37 / 9 of 27

RATE – 100 represents the rate an average fielder would attain.
FRAA – Fielding Rate of an average fielder (0=average)
FRAR – Fieldeing Rate of a theoretical Replacement (waiver type player or triple A call-up … marginal pro)
RANK – Rank among fielders that played 81 or more games at SS.

The ratings show what some would considering to be stunning (or blasphemous), that Jeter is actually a below-average fielding SS, who became slightly above average in 2005.

The article explains, “… the reason Jeter has hurt his team defensively is that he doesn’t get to many balls and is not spectacularly efficient with those he does get to. There was even a popular joke that new fans initially thought Jeter’s first name was “Pastadiving” since the phrase “past a diving Jeter” was uttered so often during broadcasts. He’s consistently near the bottom of the league in chances, put-outs, and assists. Many of his flashy plays would be routine for a better defensive shortstop like Miguel Tejada or Rafael Furcal.”

Comments?

Note: To show that this is not a personal attack, or based on personal bias, etc I will present a similar thread that illustrates that my favorite player’s (Rickey Henderson) unbelievable season of 130 stolen bases, just marginally (if at all) added to his teams offensive success. Interesting.

EDIT: I am looking for the stats for Cal Ripken Jr and Ryne Sandberg, two guys widely regarded as GREAT defensive players, yet neither ever seemed to dive for a ball … or be out of position, yet got to (seemingly) everything.

EDIT2: FRAA per 162 games – Ripken 7.8, Visquel 6.9, Trammel 5.5, Larkin 4.4 … AND Ozzie Smith (All-Time Leader) 17.4

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Wow at ozzie smith!

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When Whitey Herzog gave light hitting Ozzie Smith 1M/yr, lots of folks were shocked and seriously doubted Herzog’s wisdom. Herzog said something like, "whether you knock in 100 runs, or take away 100 runs … it’s still 100 runs.

John Tudor posted a 1.95 ERA in 85 by simply throwing off-speed on the outside corner and letting guys pull it to the left side. You had Terry Pendleton (3B), Ozzie Smith (SS), and Vince Coleman (LF) to chase it down. If they swung late (if that was even possible versus Tudor), McGee would run it down in center. Man, I loved that team. I wish Van Slyke coulda died a cardinal, but you can’t have your cake …

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do those stats take into account the importance of a particular play?

i haven’t seen nearly enough of jeter to comment, the one thing that strikes me is that the play to get giambi out, IIRC, was a big part of why the yankees moved on and the As went home.

Also, statistics like errors don’t claim to be purely objective, it’s the scorekeeper who decides, and one scorekeeper’s wild pitch is another scorekeeper’s past ball.

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No, they don’t.

I still can’t believe Giambi didn’t slide. That HAS to be one of the dumbest blunders ever.

The “limits” of stats is discussed in a chapter covering “clutch hitting” (or lackthereof). Joe Carter is widely regarded as a “great clutch hitter”. He’s had 100 rbi seasons, and (most notably) the walk off 3-run bomb in G6 of the 92 WS. But, looking at his stats in RBI and close-game situations, his “rating” is almost identical to Dave Kingman. I will present that chapter’s information in another thread if people are interested. It’s interesting to see who got a lot of RBI’s that an “average player” would nhot have knocked in and who (cough Joe carter) got a lot of rbi’s, but fewer than the average hitter would have knocked in the same situation. I digress …

But, no, the stats treat every situation as identical in importance (except, of course, those stats dealing with “important” situations, runners in scoring position, close and late, tie-games, etc).

In general (and I guess if you play for a team not named the Yankees), playoff stats are too small of a sample size. Going on playoffs, Ozzie Smith, Tito Landrum, and Kurt Bevaqua are good hitters to have up when you need the long ball. grin

Personally, I knew (from reading other stuff) that Jeter was not “gold glove caliber”. I was stunned to see what BP discovered/calculated … and they are, generally, well respected (i.e., relaible people don’t come up showing how they are flawed).

It’s interesting to have your opinions/beliefs challenged though.

statistics like errors don’t claim to be purely objective,

In terms of what the BP guys were looking for, a big part of it was looking at how many balls hit to a fielder’s area that they actually get to and field cleanly. IMO, it’s safe to assume that Jeter gets the benefit of the doubt on errors more times than not.

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i don’t know about playoff stats being too small a sample size. you have to take your shot when you get it.

i’m not sure what the joe carter play is you’re referring to, though. being a phillies fan, i followed the 93 series pretty closely. i’m sure that if he’d done anything remarkable, i’d remember it. it’s not like i’d have repressed any horrible, horrible memories, right?

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"Note: To show that this is not a personal attack, or based on personal bias, etc I will present a similar thread that illustrates that my favorite player’s (Rickey Henderson) unbelievable season of 130 stolen bases, just marginally (if at all) added to his teams offensive success. Interesting. "

Nooooooooo! Respect for TT slowly draining away!!!

I didn’t read all that gobbally gook number stuff because all baseball fans know he didn’t deserve it. We also know that the gold glove is not awarded to the best defensive player at a position. MY favorite all time player (Andy Van Slyke) said it best when asked if he was going to get it one particular year. He said, “I hope I hit well enough to get it.” The gg is given to a very good defensive player who contributes well to his team offensively, and is also news worthy. The award is after all given by a business who wants to sell gloves. The do a great job of that, and I own a few of them right now.

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I had the privilage of meeting Van Slyke as a youngster. He walked out of the clubhouse with his wife on his arm and his young son on his shoulders. He stopped, signed an autograph, and resumed his business (as Vince Coleman snuck out a side door and sprinted across the street).

Van Slyjke is a VERY funny guy. I have no idea why he isn’t the cardinals color man instead of “Annoying Al” Hrabosky. I would love to hang out, around a grill, with Van Slyke and Mark Grace.

Me liking Rickey Henderson makes no sense, I admit it. One of my earliest baseball memories is of him robbing a home run and diving head first. I’m loyal to a fault. As a player, I would have drilled him every chance I got.

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AVS is pure class. Damn fine ball player too. Also a scratch golfer. I got to caddy in a group with him when I was in high school. The reason why he isn’t a color man is that Leyland is grooming him to manage in the bigs. It is almost enough to make me cry when I think how close the whole of the current Tigers staff came to coming back to Pittsburgh a few years ago. Not enough to make me a Tigers fan though…but almost.
If you have AVS over for a bbq, let me know, I will be there.

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Every time someone tries to find evidence for “clutch play” in any sport, they almost always come up empty handed.

Nobody who doesn’t grasp the math will ever believe this of course, but its true anyway.

Clutch hitting, for example, doesn’t seem to exist. I don’t THINK clutch fielding would either, but I’m sure that could be investigated.

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Funny, when I first saw this post I immediately thought that you should read the chapter about this in Baseball Between the Numbers. I really enjoyed the book and was shocked to see the improvement from Jeter. I was also surprised to see the decline in number from ARod at 3b. I always thought the Yankees were making a mistake by moving ARod to third and keeping Jeter at SS. The real GG mystery to me is how Palmeiro won the GG at 1b in 1999 while only playing 28 games at first.

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Every time someone tries to find evidence for “clutch play” in any sport, they almost always come up empty handed.

IMO, there is “clutch play”, just not “clutch skill”. {Oh hell, we’re talking about the same darn thing grin]

For example, in 2006, David Ortiz’s “clutch rating” was very high, and ARods was very low. This year, it’s the reverse (and that’s the trend that’s noticed), Ortiz’s clutch rating is low, and ARod’s is high.

Actually, by the numbers, this year Ortiz is actually costing him team runs in the clutch (i.e., FRAA … the average major leager is coming through in the clutch more than Ortiz is). Very few, if any, sports fans would summize this without looking at the numbers.

You do an excellent job of bring up “clutch” as being something that is more fantasy than stats. Not surprising, the better stats a guy has, the better his “clutch” stats usually are.

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I thought it was interesting that the authors suggested that the (statistically; non-emotional) best move for the Yankess would be to move Jeter to CF, where his skills would be maximized over an aging Bernie, Put ARod at short, his best position (and much better than Jeter), and sign an average 3rd baseman … and they would be better (defensively) at ALL 3 positions, and equally strong offensively.

Imagine ARod coming to NY and bumping Jeter to the outfield. Yeah … right!

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Who were the top SS’s for those years your reference?

I’m not saying Jeter was or wasn’t great, just wondering where that statistic places other SS’s over that era for comparative purposes.

Also for all time average, who is in-between Ripken and Ozzie??

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Who were the top SS’s for those years your reference?

Tejada and Furcal were mentioned by name, I’ll find the numbers. The shortstops were compared to the “average shortstop”, so for many years there are 20+ guys listed ahead of Jeter. Do you want me to list them all?

Also for all time average, who is in-between Ripken and Ozzie??

FRAA per 162 games – Ripken 7.8, Visquel 6.9, Trammel 5.5, Larkin 4.4 … AND Ozzie Smith (All-Time Leader) 17.4

Every time I watch Renteria, he seems to get to everything and has a gun. I wonder what his FRAA rating is? Of course, I gonna look for it.

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I don’t need all 20+, but it would be nice to know if there are 1-3 guys who are consistently in the top 10 or something. I just want a reference point for who would be considered top-tier as a SS during that period using this statistic.

Also for all time average, who is in-between Ripken and Ozzie??

FRAA per 162 games – Ripken 7.8, Visquel 6.9, Trammel 5.5, Larkin 4.4 … AND Ozzie Smith (All-Time Leader) 17.4

I think you misread my question, I asked for in-between, you recited 3 guys who are lower than Ripken not people higher than Ripken and lower than Ozzie. Or are you saying Ozzie is #1 and Ripken is #2?

Is there a site that lists all this data? I’d love to explore too. And as you, I wonder how they can take into account people like Ripken who knew how to always be positioned correctly.

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I don’t need all 20+, but it would be nice to know if there are 1-3 guys who are consistently in the top 10 or something.

I looked all over, but much of what I am looking for (a list) is protected by membership. Here is a link to all the SS’s PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm … yeah, you can almost hear these nerd’s snort/laugh) Cards. You’re looking under fielding stats and RAA (Runs Above Average). A negative number means they’re worse than an avr fielding, a positive number means they’re better. You can also look at RAR (Runs Above Replacement) as it compares how the fielder does versus a minimal-level (fring major leager) fielder. +=good, -=bad.

EDIT: A lot of the PECOTA cards are membership protected. I’m working on it. I may be ripe for a membership so I can bathe in nerd-dom.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/pos_SS.php

I’ve reached my maximum wasted time for the day. grin

Also for all time average, who is in-between Ripken and Ozzie??

Here’s the top 10 list. (Remember, they’re compared to thei average peer)FIELDING RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE FRAA 1 Bill Dahlen 354 2 Joe Tinker 338 3 Ozzie Smith 325 4 Mark Belanger 302 5 Art Fletcher 271 6 Honus Wagner 258 7 Bobby Wallace 242 8 George McBride 232 9 Marty Marion 224 10 George Davis 222**Is there a site that lists all this data?**Baseball Prospectus and Google. There’s A LOT od dedicated stat-nerds out there. At this point, I’m equal parts in baseball heaven and equal parts totally creeped out.