All I’m seeing in the news these days is about labour shortages and how businesses can’t find workers. However, at the same time, we have high unemployment, especially amongst young people (7% and 14% respectively).
It seems like the issue is businesses can’t, or won’t, pay workers enough to attract them, because prevailing wages are far below the cost of even a very basic cost of living, and jobs offer workers fewer opportunities or pathways to better their lives.
In addition to that, the horse we hitched our economy to for the last twenty five years (housing and construction) is dying since we drastically curbed immigration, and continually made the construction process more expensive.
…But we curbed immigration because it was overwhelming our underfunded public services and supply of rental housing, and pushing up unemployment. Our GDP per capita has declined over the last five years.
Ontario is losing manufacturing jobs like crazy (70,000 lob losses in February), Alberta energy sector is a far cry from the Fort Mac glory days of ten to fifteen years ago (at least in terms of job creation), and construction in BC is teetering on the edge. Canada’s economy is largely driven by the service sector, but if people are struggling and spending less on services, where is our economic engine going to come from? It feels like Canada’s economy was a propped up house of cards for the last ten years or so, and it’s very windy right now.
Listening to some economists in the US over the past few weeks, the Carney “Pivot” (P. Trudeau file dust off) there will be some repercussions in CA for awhile. Establishing new international business partnerships and retooling existing infrastructure are slightly more than a great speech.
Don’t get me wrong, I giggle like a schoolgirl when I think about CA putting the US at the back of the line. I’d like to see the Gordie Howe Bridge be busy, but if this is what it takes to make MAGAT’s squirm - So be it. This is what they voted for. I’ll have to bite the bullet along with them, but I’m gonna enjoy their twisted rationalizations and bich’n… (Idc a fck! if a drop of oil comes from under the Straits of Mack though. I’m prepping for $6 gallon.). “If the Wings don’t win it… Go Habs!”
I like Carney’s approach so far but like you said the developments and partnerships he is talking about are years if not decades in the making before they produce real fruit. And while the best time to plant those trees may have been ten to fifteen years ago, the second best time is now, as the saying goes.
I just don’t see much good coming in the next 10-20 years. At least, all the opportunities that were around when I was a young adult (20 years ago) seem to have dried up. I really wouldn’t want to be a teenager in Canada right now.
From the Ontario side, things don’t look good. After Trudeau et al destroyed a lot of stuff including the immigration system we seem to have more people available, but a lot less qualified people from say 15 years ago. On the other hand, some of the new grads we hire indicate that dozens of their former classmates are struggling to find a job years after graduating and often take jobs in the US, Singapore, etc. i.e. it is a mess and does not seem to be getting better any time soon.
Mr. Carney’s major projects office has not fast tracked any projects that were not already in the pipeline. I think if they seriously tried pipelines and mines they would get jammed by aboriginal land claim concerns. We could be selling gas to Germany and Japan but we would rather Quatar would do that. Because Quatar’s capacity is being destroyed we could get a second chance but we won’t take it. We could be Norway but we are not.
Canadian auditor general found that Canadian immigration dept flagged 150,000 foreign student visa holders for non compliance but only started investigating 4,000. Of those about half the investigations were dropped because the students failed to return immigration department inquires. Duh
Meanwhile Toronto city council is going to start opening low cost grocery stores. Grocery stores are a low margin business. But many Canadians are upset because they cannot figure out that the net profits from large grocery chains are because they have large gross revenue not a large profit margin. What could wrong. Well City of Toronto will be running grocery stores at a loss. https://torontolife.com/city/mamdani-style-public-grocery-stores-are-coming-to-toronto-eventually/
Ontario is dropping sales tax on new homes as is the federal gov’t because construction in anemic in the midst of a housing shortage.
I am going to get a 15 percent raise though. Primary care docs get big raise while nobody actually audits what they do.
I am having a lot of fun doing OR assists evenings overnights and weekends. It does not pay comparatively a lot of money but I get to see all the cool stuff surgeons do.
Somebody is being paid off. ? What would they negotiate for? Pipelines for natural gas to the coast would require consensus among many aboriginal groups which would be difficult for anybody. Never mind the environmental lobby. Critical minerals all I could see is export of unrefined dirt which would seem not economically viable.
If groups think they will do better with the Chinese than David Eby and Mark Carney they are delusional I think
What are house prices like in the Gulf Islands compared to say two years ago?
Should it be
We are all here because all of us are not there?
Many lumber? Already happening is native groups logging old growth forest and selling the lumber for profit to help out their people. Tree huggers get upset but they don’t know what to do given they campaign vigorously for native self determination. Saying the natives are being duped insults the intelligence of natives. What to do?
This is like American on the one hand being criticized for being imperialist and paternalist when they try to impose human rights values on foreign countries and on the other being criticized when the fail to intervene to protect some oppressed group.
They want to secure rights and access to resources and can probably offer them things the government of Canada cannot.
Securing their approval first also weakens the government’s negotiation position.
Think about how much easier it would be to come to an agreement with a tribe of 1500 who has unaccountable hereditary leadership as opposed to a government of 40 million that has to satisfy its electorate to some degree.
Getting back to the economic quagmire. Apparently now more Canadians are going to the States vs Americans coming to Canada despite Donald Trump insanity. Disproproportunately one percenters. My son has been there for three years. Good friends daughter just graduated from Vet school and going to Ohio for more money and opportunity to operate on dogs and cats more/build experience. Pretty well every family with high performing kids a really good chance at least one is leaving. A real brain drain. Our medical group’s recruitment of new family docs is now mainly ex pat Nigerians and people that went to Caribeann for profit medical schools.
I’d say the very same people who are worried about increasing authoritarianism and “no more kings” would be fully supportive of gov’t respecting hereditary leadership of native groups even when there is a competing impulse (elected council) for democratic governance.
The brain drain is very real. I agree that most high earners here either move south, want to move south, or work remotely for an American company.
I can’t haven’t read the paywalled article but something to consider is a lot of recent immigrants, PRs and citizens only came to Canada as a conduit to get to the US as well. I’m not sure if that study takes in to account this “passthrough” effect.
