Can you deduce a new FTP from this duathlon data?

Triathlon Forum
1

Raced a duathlon this morning, 2 mile trail run (hilly terrain), 10 mile flat/rolling bike course (GPS only suggests 9.4 miles though), then the same trail run again. Here is my bike split-

http://connect.garmin.com/activity/492897130

I currently have my FTP set at 270. If I take a 15 minute best average, multiply by .95 for a theoretical 30 min power, then multiply that by .95 for a theoretical 60 minute power, I get 269, which is pretty close to what I’m currently using.

If instead I use my best 20 minute power in here, multiply that by .95 (Like you would after a 20 minute test on the trainer), the number is 281, quite a bit higher.

Some limitations of the data that shouldn’t be ignored include-

  1. The fact that it is race data, and motivation is always higher during competition.
  2. There was no low-volume recovery week going into this. It was a substitute for my weekly Sunday track workout, which follows long ride Saturday (2:50).
  3. The course was not perfectly flat and included a few turns. On some downhills I spun out 53x11, on some uphills I was out of the saddle.
  4. There was a challenging 2 mile run immediately before, and one to think about following this effort.
  5. Race time including runs was under an hour, at 48 minutes.

I don’t know if I can actually use this data as an FTP assessment or not, but I know I don’t want to hop on the trainer and do another test for awhile! Any thoughts on where to go from here are appreciated. Thanks ST.

2

It is probably safe to assume that your FTP is at least 280, from this.

probably higher.

3

Hmmm, not too confident I could hold 280 for 60 minutes. Guess I’ll have to try and get a 40k TT in at some point to know for sure!

4

Hmmm, not too confident I could hold 280 for 60 minutes. Guess I’ll have to try and get a 40k TT in at some point to know for sure!

it helps to know you can. If you don’t know you can, you might not.

a well executed 60 minute effort will feel like it will be impossible about 25 minutes in. just keep going!

5

Could you explain a little?
I would assume that a 290watt average over 22 minutes would equate less than 280 over an hour. I’d guess that the run before and the ‘race-factor’ would more or less cancel out.

6

If I take a 15 minute best average, multiply by .95 for a theoretical 30 min power, then multiply that by .95 for a theoretical 60 minute power, I get 269, which is pretty close to what I’m currently using.

I just wanted to add that this here is nonsense.
The whole 95% of 20 minute thing is based on taking an ‘average’ (slightly worse really) anaerobic capacity as an assumption.

You start trying to go from 15 minutes to 30 minutes to 60 minutes it becomes completely ridiculous.

but anyway, doing over 290 for 20 minutes in the middle of a du, means you can probably do 280 standalone, at least.