I guess it truly is chess not checkers lol. #itu #federationsdoingfederationthings
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It was stapley who disappeared from the start list. Leleu now gone from waitlist and not on start list
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looks like leleu is racing french grand prix this weekend.
WTCS Quiberon
Women: A full 55 on the start list with (25 May) 13 on the waiting list.
Names of note: Månsson, Riasova, Seregni, Jorgensen, Lehair, Tertsch, Spivey, Lindemann, Isakova, Periault, Lombardi, Beaugrand, Not Potter but the next top 5 Brits including GTB and Waugh (likely crossed fingers?).
MTR: 14 teams (56 athletes) with three on the wait list (!) Why place a limit on the number of teams? One more rack each side will give you the extra bike slots in transition.
You’re missing sian rainsley
Where do you find this?
That’s not the finalized start list as they can change till 12pm or so on race day.
Tough weekend wtcs race . European cup . French grand Prix and bundesliga.
Loads of teams struggle in both leagues.
What’s bundislaga?
The equivalent of the French Grand Prix but in Germany.
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not quite as strong as French league but the race on august 21st is the closest race to the famous kitzbuehl course, basically 2 loops of uphill and down hill on bike and run. ( there was athletes walking up short parts of the run uphill last year in a sprint race )
ok so another wtcs race as always another pre race talk ,that in the female field the cyclists will try a breakaway and after 3 wtcs race there was not one serious attempt (by that I mean one that really could impact the podium) of a breakaway.
Looking at is realistically Beaugrand looks like a champ on the bike riding around 3rd wheel in the bunch most of the time riding up the hill super comfortably and cornered well, and non of the other runner really look like in danger , even Vermylen does dangle off the back less, she did lose contact a bit at the end of the bike, after Dreyling had attack and then there was a short counter attack but it did not affect anybody else and it was better than last year. Tertch is at times too far back that she would not be able to cover an attack, but at the same time she gets it ,with attacks of 1 athlete she has nothing to worry.
So right now the British army riding away with knibb is total wishful thinking, in my mind . I am not saying it cant happen but what iam saying is I see no world where beaugrand gets dropped by a meaningful breakaway, she was totally in control on the bike and could rely on her two british domestiques to bring her up after a sub par swim.
I get there is the fan hope that the brits and Knibb and Spivey ride solo into the sunset, but realistically until they come actually up with a proper strategy there is no indication so far that will happen. Knibbs cornering and cycle craft is not there , and while GTB and Dreyling who in my mind are the only ones with the needed cycling craft and the 5 sec to 1 min power, have tried, there is no system. A one person breakaway, or even off 2 will not do much and will leave the athlete to tired to run and as I said I do not see a breakaway of 4 that Beaugrand could not cover, I guess I am not the only one, who thought she looked supremely in control on the bike, in my mind another level up from last year where she had already well improved despite her miss hap ( I think Yokohama) but the same for lombardi and potter I just dont see it that there is 3or 4 atheltes that can ride them of and then get a sufficient advantage .
Likewise tertch has really changed from an iffy swimmer into a clear FOP swimmer that swims at the top of the spear in a top 5 position. Potter is the one that is on the edge there but still gets the job done and it seems Preiault has improved her swim as well. and Mansson has 2 years time which is in her favour as well a little bit for tertch who is the lest maxed out of the top guys and born before 2002.
The males despite the crashes last week we can say we are really back in the willingness to create a breakaway in the swim and march on. and this will not change till LA I would say.
Hidalgo looks very strong on the bike, Graf and Hauser look strong, and Vasco seems to be a bit more realible in the swim, Conix looks a bit like the conix before his bike accident 2024.
and overall the portagese males look like with a very got shot to get realiably 3 guys in the top 10 and young Batistata (2005) is doing rather well ( it has been mentioned a few times but the 2005 males are something else Conway , Batista , Kropko. Vannerson)
wilde is the stongest cyclist I would say but it wont be that easy , and Hauser and Graf are top of the top swimmer that have a serious punch on the bike and hidalgo has dropped quite a few watt bombs on the bike when he takes a pull and young kropko is also going to come back and than there is 3 supreme swimmer with a massive punch to break the pack at the start of the bike if they haven’t managed it in the swim .
iam not saying it will happen but there is a realistic chance that both yee and wilde will not get a triple podium in the solo race .
and I guess at least on the more technical courses we will see more casualties as everybody is going to ride at the limit as everybody gets it , yee , wild cantero Conway, miller you dont want close and they know they know they need to close the gap .
What I cant rember is was Devay once in he lead during the ? I cant rember but usually he swims very strong in the 2nd lap but I did not see him in the front and overall I would the front male swimmers could have worked a bit better.
For the relay with Martha Kropko racing rather well Hungary is going to have a very very strong relay team. Likely Kropko, Kropko, Szalai, Lehman, and for one of the World Series races I saw an Hungarian athlete in the waiting, list with exceeding the nation quota of 5 ,thats pretty impressive for such a small country.
and since the 2005 males were mentioned in the females the 2008 seems to be a pretty good year,
Fanny Szalai is already rather well known, and the strongest 2008 female runner Annouk Danna came 8th with the fastest run split in the French Grand Prix and if she gets her swim in order …
and the Swiss keep on producing female talent with a 2010 girl doing a top solo race in the relay in the German Bundesliga. I cant rember her first name but Casanova is one to watch for the future for sure, very very impressive how this 16 year old raced.
Also in the new flag spot the racing is already on with few peoples having already done 2 asian cups since the qualification window opened, with some of the usual suspects, however the most notable so far, an idonesian female who I would say has a vey good shot for the asian female new flag spot. I am not a fan that the new flag countries spots have been increased, but that girl has real potential (2004) and I defo cant remember and elite Indonesian triathlete so that is good stuff.
ps not that anybody would care but I believe its the first time braziel has a world no 1 in hidalgo (world ranking).
adding to that the ironman run "record " holder Manoel Messias had the fastest run in alghero
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Excellent summary @pk.
I think the issue right now is that many within the top FP swim group are also racing other races, so their itu sharpness is a bit dulled. Does that sharpen the closer we get to an Olympic Games to potentially create any lasting dynamics?
IE Spivey and Knibb easily came out of the water within reach of getting with the front 4. Only their recent non-draft training/racing probaly caused them to be “meh” on the 1st lap of the bike. Of course both of those may never be “all in” on ITU anymore, so it may be a mootish point. They may always have residual affects of their non-draft racing in their legs to diminish the top 1% they may need to actually force a breakaway for the rest of their itu careers. IE would Knibb and Spivey have looked like that 3 years ago, where they couldn’t even pull up to those 4 this past weekend without sitting on the front chase group to help get them there? Of course a front group w/ Brits that aren’t Potter may be under federation orders to ride for Potter (especially if they don’t AQ) the closer we get to a Olympics Games, so it may be moot anyways.
A couple of points on Alghero:
- I think there was a little bit of moto interference during the first few laps. At points assisting the lead quartet. I counted about four motos in front of them in the opening lap of the bike. Now the roads were not completely straight so not always a direct benefit but certainly getting some assistance (e.g. 41mins into the coverage two motos directly in front)
- The third pack (second chase) also had a moto with them, at least from what I could see on the coverage whereas the 2nd Spivey/Knibb group had no motos.
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Iirc a key ‘moto-assist’ for them was a camera left in behind the FP and only removed when the catch was almost made. Now I think there was enough motivation and firepower (Knibb et al) to pull the chase pack up anyway, but it would been harder and taken longer.
You are right that the FP early on had motos ridiculously close. One assumes this is Spanish lack of grip/direction or drivers with a combo of ignorance (to the adverse effect they are having) or insouciance / indiscipline, with a layer of ‘got to get the shots’ or there’s no broadcast.
Thought the directors did well with drone and moto-camera and static combo. And Holland/McCloy (unlike IM) seemed to be actually watching the feed and prepared to stop their thread when there was ‘action’ worth remark.
I wonder if McCloy tapers before these races.
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to this I would say sutto had a female medalist in each of the last 3 olympics doing a half like 2 weeks before the games and various other halfs.
and on sunday the one that does ironman had the best swim split of the lot lol ( ups I forgot Sophie)
ie it should not really impact their swim and bike. and if Lucy races halfs and t100 the swim is not slower …
We might have been watching different races. It looked like Knibb had a very slow run to T1, slow T1 and come to a complete stop bike mount. To then have a very unKnibblike 1st few mins on the bike sitting in the back of the chase group. She was gapped by even the chasers due to the slow T1/mount. It looked certainly like she was not sharp, so maybe all your suggesting is that only Sutto led athletes can juggle the different race demand distances and produce podium level results*?
It looked exactly like she hadn’t raced a ITU race in 2 years. The “slow” run was very much to be expected. I was wondering how her swim was going to be, but that was on point. But for whatever reason she did not “attack” the 1st few k’s of the bike (monty made a comment on this in the race thread), but again it looked very much like she was just sorta in slow-motion recovering to get her bearings so to speak. So again maybe we have different of opinion on what is or isn’t itu sharpness. So no problem to see it differently.
If we are talking about juggling ITU demands. No Sutto athlete has ever raced the number of IM’s prior to an OG’s that Knibb is going to have. I think we should be able to recognize there is a huge difference in IM vs half IM training demands (I don’t’ think Sutto is training his athletes to 70.3 demands in the OG buildup, I think he’s using that as simply the last “long workout” weekend; itu athletes would easily ride that long on the weekend 2 weeks out from OG;s and they’ll easily swim, most won’t need to run a half marathon, but I don’t think Sutto is “training” to meet 70.3 demands within the OG build) and then how that affects itu readiness. Knibb “skipped” an itu race basiically what 3 weeks after IMTX finish because she felt she wasn’t ready. So the Sutto comparison is not exactly comparable for Knibb, Spivey yes cus she won’t race IM distance (or atleast has not as of yet).
Sutto has them do a half close to the Olympics for a specific reason: to prevent them from killing themselves doing super fast training this late before the Olympics and getting injured in the process.
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Extend your short course viewing for not much - hurry - ‘exclusive’ offer ends soon:
(Why did I not wait earlier this year?)
World Triathlon’s ‘First Look’ at the men’s field for Quiberon.
https://triathlon.org/news/first-look-at-the-mens-wtcs-quiberon-2026-start-lists
I am sure we watched the same race where knibb at not stage was in danger to be not at the front into t2.
knibb has very bad middle distance transitions, gwen has poor transitions and just races short course… so yes she can do better but I would say she does not have the motoric to do relay well.
but it does also not really matter too much knibbs bike is good enough to close the gap.
even at her best you are very unlikely to see here top 7 at this race , she just does not have the run, and she does not have the bike skills to realy break away ( but what she has is like 70 k in race income 2026 and likely 300k plus a year extra sponsorship income plus doing other stuff.
ie with GTB I can see it if she was to focus totally in short course that this might work all the other athtles are better of to mix it and work for the relay, if they look at it from a professional point of, how to maximise their career.
unless they come really up with a plan how to drop the top 6 on the bike ( and to add mansson lombardi ) but so far there is no indication that this is happening , and again I very much doubt they will mange to break beaugrand lombardi lehair perioult.
vermaylen can be broken for sure (but she is also improving)
one of the issues is there is no learmouth or Lucy hall atm in female tri ie a swimmer that really can do a matt Hauser start and again there is no swim biker that is really stronger than the runner in the swim, so right now the runners have the upperhand especially the ones that are really strong swimmer and even potter seems to be save atm as her constant top results show.
having said so Evans had one of the worst start positons and did start well.
so yes there is gtb , there is dreyling who has stagged a few break aways in World Cup races. but the punch to break up a bike pack I dont see, and then they also need to get enough of a break which is not happening atm.
but anyway I guess is where we are of different opinions is that that right now, i dont see a biker breakaway that kills all of the 7 or so top runners . periault yes could be broken with a popper swim vermaylen on the bike but the rest on a solid day say unlikely and non of the top cyclist with the possible exception of gtb can hold a 30sec to 1 min gap of the bike.
and of course iam not saying it cant happen but atm I dont see it
and we have already agreed ironman and short course is tough to combine , yet I do think knibb is doing the right thing( and thats also what she wants) and she will still have the chance to race for a medal in the relay. and I guess we can say the same for gtb and spivey.
and yes you can race very well halfs with oly focus. and there is no reason why and atnhelte cant practise transitons doing halfs.
I look at what is the best way for the athlete to make a living, its the job of the fed to nurture talent to beat her …its not knibbs job to think how can the fed do better (and as you know I give usat a clear fail for la and it looks good for Brisbane) uk and france did reasonably well at their home cames , australia also looks good …the usa right no 0chance for a individual medal unless Pearson starts to get consistent or has a Julie deron race )
the issue is you are so hang up that Taylor does what brings her most cash, but this is the job of a pro… its not to do whats best for the fed who treated her last oly champ rather poorly …
if Duffy Learmouth kingma at all where stilll racing that would be different .but they are not
That’s why I’ve basically argued to Ajax and Monty. 2024 itu MTR knibb is going to be gone forever. She may very well be a team member because no one else is good enough. But this idea that knibb that they seem to suggest can just do her thing and she show up with a monster itu leg is not realistic. And more power to her- go make all the money she can and still be in the running for an Olympic spot. Just don’t tell me her itu performances are immune from racing anything she wants.
So I’m not saying not to do it. No duh her strength is LC non-draft. I’m saying factor all that in when your then calculating strength and weaknesses and outcomes etc.
Current US relay roster:
John Reed- will be itu focused
Knibb- will likely be summer time only itu focus
Spivey- more focused than knibb but not all in itu
Pearson- similar to Spivey
Other US athletes may be more itu focused yet still may not beat the above group- GJ, legg, vannerson. Orie, GS, couple more devo athletes
Other US athletes who may follow similar Pearson/spivey race schedules (IE just no IM’s)1 mcqueen, rider, Kasper
Hamburg 26 will be a great rehearsal so if knibb shows up and has a monster leg, I’ll acknowledge I’m wrong. But if she starts to show she’s 5% weaker then wtf do we think will happen 2 uears from now when she adds about 3-5 IM’s? So it’s all where she can prove it’s not having an affect or it is. If it is then no shit a federation has to say WTF. And they may likely open the door to picking other athletes for various diffferent reasons (Olympic experience for future, Knibb’s value being less)
What we can configure from current form knibb- 5 weeks post IM is too short to be itu ready. OG is less than 3 months so can she get to peak itu in that timeframe. Hamburg will be a great result to see.