Bicycle Sports Demise: when will the other shoe drop?

Triathlon Forum
1

I read with dismay about the Bicycle Sports demise. I admit to not being the best customer of his (as I did most of my business through LBS’), but have on occasion phoned them, asked a few questions and ordered parts.

Losing Bicycle Sports is a bad sign. I know that the world of Tri is still at it’s peak, and it seems that Bicycle Sports was more a victim of bad business decisions rather than a sign of the times, but I still wonder if it is not a sign of things to come.

I know that the main complaint in triathlons and duathlons these days is that there’s waaaaaaaaaaaay too many people on the bike course, causing frustration from the drafting that automatically ensues. I know that my last USAT-sanctioned du had horrible drafting issues, and I had commited quite a few position fouls (mainly going outside of the cones to pass the two-abreast, five mile long peloton, seemingly going a whopping seventeen miles per hour), and I have seen the frustration written on forums everywhere about this issue.

What was I saying in the last paragraph? Basically that many people will tire of not having a great race and will quit tris and dus, along with the people who are doing them “to be hip”. I saw on ER some naff mention of a character that Carter was trying to bang about “I’m training for a triathlon”. This will cause the demand for tri-specific equipment to dry up, and other stores will join Bicycle Sports in the league of defunct tri shops.

Thoughts?

2

Tom D has posted here that he expects the tri market to peek in the next few years and then decline.

It seems that Bicycle Sports was a victim of poor management, not necessarily the current market. Businesses rise and fall all the time. Something like 80% of small business fails within the first five years.

3

I would actually say that they are the victim of getting waaaaay too big way too quickly. I bought wheels from him in 1997, and I know he had been around quite a few years before then.

I remember totally what D had said. I just think that the end of the high-tide with the tri market is coming within the next couple of years.

4

Tom may well be right - but for a reason beyond the ken of most on this forum. The problem? Recent growth of the sport has been primarily fueled by the intersection of two lines: the deification of ironman and the incredible increase in the opportunity to reach a personal nirvana.

In and of itself, such concurrence is not always ominous. Take for example such rock icons as the Rolling Stones and the Beatles. But the instant situation is different, containing, much like a Shakespearean drama, the seeds of its own destruction.

The problem can basically be reduced to time. Even if one insists on total solitude, it takes about three minutes to listen to Norwegian Wood and perhaps 45 minutes to listen to both sides of the Rubber Soul album. And you can, at least technically, be “home” while doing it.

But Ironman is different. Ten to 15 hours a week on the bike, another 6-8 on the run, 4-8 in the pool - and all of a sudden, there are significant strains on life, family, and job. An uneasy truce can often be negotiated, but its shelf life is likely to be limited. Add to the mix the tendency to overdose on racing (made worse by the system of qualifying for IM Hawaii) and the extended period of physical exhaustion often felt post-IM - and you are describing a classic Icarus conclusion. Fly too high, burn out quickly.

What does this portend for our sport? If the burnout rate is high, we will have to hope for an inexhaustable supply of new afficionados. In my view, however, that is unrealistic. In fact, the sport went through a similar cycle in its infancy, with IM Hawaii fueling some startling growth in the 1982-1988 period. That growth stalled and died, however, and I predict this one will as well. The only question is when. I’m guessing we could be seeing signs of it even now - did I hear Wildflower is not filling up as quickly as it used to.

5

Lew,

Not sure I get the rock music Parallels, but it will be interesting to see where triathlon is headed. I think that next 5 years will be interesting to watch.

I agree with you that the profile and perceived importance of Ironman is a bit out of balance with what is realistic and sustainable. Just 5 years ago, the thought of IM races filling with 2000 keen entrants, for NEXT YEAR’S race seemed absurd. The time and money requirments to accomplish this and achieve this nirvana are significant. I liken it to downhill skiing or golf - two very expensive and time consuming actrivities that have huge barriers to getting in and getting at those activity’s respective nirvanic moments. I am not that familer with golf, but I am continually amazed when I go downhill skiing to see what hassles, costs, inconvienienecs skiers put up with to get that downhill thrill. Interesting that, the profitable revenue stream at many ski areas has shifted in the past 10 years from skiers skiing the hill to real-estate. I am wondering what the equivilant shift will be for triathlon.

The same thing is happening with Ironman triathlon racing as is happening with running - more an more people are taking part, but average times are actually getting SLOWER. Reason: For the most part people have a recreational approach to it, which is not bad thing, and may make it more sustainable then we think today.

It’s amazing to stand at the finishline of say the NYC Marathon. You see the top runners come in all sub 2:20. Then there is a no-mans land for the next 40 minutes where you hardly see anyone running, then slowly the masses start building past the 3:00 mark.

Fleck

6

I’ll argue this is a matter of scale.

Our sport is small. Right now a set of societal and cultural factors have made the sport a “trend” and it has become fashionable.

That won;t last. It’s probably over now.

It is likely we are, or have just, passed the highest point of that trend in terms of mass-market, “everyman” involvement. I would suggest the growth numbers we’ve seen over the past five years are unsustainable over the next five years.

So there will be some contraction. The sport will scale back down to where it “belongs”. It’s likely that you and I will be here still, but the thousands of people who line up to do Ironman once as a life experience, or do Danskin or Chicago- that population is probably more transient.

The guys like you and I will stay. The rest will move on.

The result is that the “buying core” of the sport isn’t, in my estimation, large enough to support super store type operations. A few smaller places with heavy Internet exposure will survive but no one will be getting rich.

I think the smart people keep this business in perspective: It is a hobby. Some people make a few bucks off it but no one (or at least very few people) are making a huge living. We (I) do it because we love it.

As for a store that would include a swimming pool, wind tunnel, hundreds of $1500+ retail triathlon bikes on the floor built with all the attendant merchandising, lighting, video displays, point of sale, inventory control, staff and so forth- probably not viable.

Remember the Saturday Night Live skit about the mall store called “House of Tape”? There you go.

7

“It seems that Bicycle Sports was a victim of poor management.”

There is truth to this, but in the interest of perspective I want to offer my opinion that this does not mean poor management by John Cobb.

I know John Cobb, recognize him, but he does not either know or recognize me. We are not cronies.

The reason I say this is that John’s initial business concept and model- the one HE developed and built, was, in my opinion, very very solid. He did good business and marketed his fine store and excellent service very well. The work I saw that he did was good or very, very good.

Bad management? Yeah, probably correct. By that does not mean bad management by John Cobb. I think it is important to keep what happened to the chain and their leter-year growth plans seperate from the core concept which was John Cobb’s.

John’s ideas were simple, effective, streamlined and worked. It seems to me it ws only in the later years when other factors began to influence- then guide- the operation that enormous additional risks were incurred and we witnessed the resultant events.

In my opinion, this was not John’s “fault”.

8

Throwing out some ideas,

USAT could ameliorate the situation by

  1. Working to create excitement around 1/2 IM and especially Oly national championships. Imagine if the Ultramax national championship really took off. Even if Ultramax only attained 1/4 the excitement of IM Hawaii, there would be an incredible number of athletes training for 1/2 the distance. Throw in an IM Hawaii type excitement around an Oly style championship and you’ve got a huge base of athletes racing a sustainable distance.

I’ve never been at a race and overheard anyone talking about trying to qualify for USAT national anything. How many people have you heard talking about Hawaii?

  1. Attempting to both increase the number of coaches and inrease the quality of the certified coaches. Increasing quantity gives better penetration and more opportunity to keep athletes involved for the long haul. Increasing certification quality will help ensure both longevity of the athlete and utilization of coaching.

  2. Increasing quality and quantity of races will also keep participation higher. Slowman’s articles on race organizing and his ideas for USAT help to race organizers is right on the money.

9

Before I got into tri about 10 years ago I lived for high wind board sailing. Traveled all over to sail Maui, Baja, The Gorge, etc. Every year the retailers changed board designs and told us we had to have the latest and greatest in board, sail, boom, etc design. I found myself getting caught up in that and dropped some serious cash. I see some parallels to tri with the latest must have gear, must do race and other rat race persuits.

I think Tom is right that eventually it will recede to a core group of people who do it just for the love of it and not so they can say they do it.

BTW, boardsailing is not nearly as popular now…replaced to some degree by kite sailing.

Mike

10

While I don’t know if triathlon is at a peak right now, I would say that it is in a transition period. By this I mean that there are different forces that are working to move triathlon forward, and these forces aren’t necessarily looking out for the best interests of the sport.

My fear is that triathlon will appeal to the mass market companies who are looking to get into triathlon to make the quick dollar. At work I watch/listen to CNBC and I see commercials throughout the day showing road cyclists (who aren’t investing smartly), off road adventure racers (who need to own the newest SUV), swimmers in wetsuits departing an ocean swim (and one of them is very sore because she hasn’t used the newest arthritis drugs). Advertisers are seizing the triathlon image and seeking to make $ off of it.

A fear of mine is the triathlon superstore funded by get rich quick investors.

The demise of BicycleSports allays my fears somewhat on the superstore entry to the local scene. I think that investors will look at the failed example of Bicyclesports and think twice, which is good news for the local shops.

The more immediate concern may be what I see as the demise of local triathlon race promoter. Local race promoters who have been in the sport for many years are now selling their business to larger business concerns (who may be more interested in turning a profit than putting on a decent race). See for example the New Jersey race promoter “The Triathlantic Association” which was founded in 1988 and well respected. The founders have announced that 2004 was their last year due to lack of profit and they have sold their equipment to a larger race promoter who is newer to the area.

Local race promoters who have been in the triathlon industry for the past 20 years or so need to be supported. The ultimate loser if they go out of business/sell is us, the triathlon age groupers.

12

I won’t mind when triathlons become less popular (even trendy).

13

I was a biker who did triathlons, now I’m a triathlete who races bikes…

I miss focusing on the bike, endless hours on the saddles, not racing until noon, the cat/mouse game, the strategy…

14

It was not so long ago that you would have a nice restful winter of easy training. Then start to ramp up the training in the early spring, see how it was going and then decide, based on fitness and how you were feeling if you wanted to race an IM later in the year - for me that was typically IMC. Not anymore. Wonder if those days will ever come back?

Fleck

16

I posted some comments about the marketing of Tri in another thread recently…but basically, people have to understand that Tri remains a small fringe sport…example: world’s largest Tri (claimed by Chicago) has about 6,000 + athletes, while the Chicago Mary has 40,000, more than 6,000 running in numerous smaller marathons, etc…

People who want to focus on the “business” of Tri need to do some serious market research and business planning to decide if it will work, or they are doomed to fail…my opinion is that Bicycle Sports had a very poor business plan (if any) and poor management (not necessarily Cobb) – Tri businesses are more complicated than setting up a shop with $2K + bikes and the customers will come…

The sport is and will remain trendy, but that doesn’t mean everyone will participate in the sport (i.e. buy stuff)

The abilityof the IM distance to sustain growth is uncertain…most cannot/will not commit to IM distances year after year…that mean it needs NEW people to seek that distance each year. Example, people complain about IM’s filling in days/hours, yet other non-IM races are floundering (Ultramax)…probably do IM success at “branding” itself, but also because there is a very fine line in this sport between market sustainability and market saturation…we saw it in the 1/2 IM’s in the Midwest this year…

17

I’ll argue this is a matter of scale.

Our sport is small. Right now a set of societal and cultural factors have made the sport a “trend” and it has become fashionable.

That won;t last. It’s probably over now.

The most obvious sign is the unbelievable number of bike companies who have tri bikes this year. With any other bike trend that has been a sure sign it has peaked. Bike companies are traditionally slow at recognizing trends, and then all of a sudden they all enter at the same time when it’s too late.

I would argue a company should never join a trend, as you are per definition too late and it makes much more sense to stay loyal to your traditional market and customer, but that’s not the way this industry works.

I can tell you that a few years from now, most of the companies that now offer triathlon or pseudo-triathlon bikes will no longer offer them and it will be back to the usual suspects.

All the others will have figured out the market is not that big (especially when 10 new companies fight for a small piece while the usual suspects keep going strong) and they will also find out that despite their overall size, their product cannot compete with the smaller, more tri-oriented players.

Then all those other companies will jump on the next trend (trikes anyone?) and triathlon will continue to prosper as a sport and as a business to some, but at a modest scale.

18

I have to say that a part of me welcomes the “demise” of the sport’s popularity. Having survived the first peak and valley in the 80’s, I miss the days of having completed an IM a somewhat awe-inspiring moment.

I know this might come across as a somewhat “elitist” point of view, but I think that Ironman has been watered down to an everymans event similar to a marathon, rather than a task of somewhat greater proportion. Example; my wife and I went to the beach at the end of summer and came across a woman who saw my wife’s finisher’s t-shirt from an ironman event. The woman asked my wife if she did triathlons, which wifey responded an affirmative. Now, this woman had no idea that my wife is a nationally ranked triathlete who has gone 10 hrs at the distance. The lady asked my wife if she had done an IM then where was her tattoo? Wifey and I were wondering what she had meant and the lady responded that her husband had done an IM and had the tattoo to prove it and I could tell by the look in this woman’s eyes that she doubted my wife had done one. I couldn’t help but laugh at the premise, but afterwards, it made me think…is this what it comes down to??? The majority of the race finishes in the 12-16 hour mark and the badge of honor is an WTC logo on your ankle???

I guess I am getting old and cranky, but I remember when you had to take serious stock not only in your time commitment, but in your personal makeup to see if you had the guts and fortitude to do an Ironman. Part of me would like to see it back the way it was…not for everyone!!!

19

As for a store that would include a swimming pool, wind tunnel, hundreds of $1500+ retail triathlon bikes on the floor built with all the attendant merchandising, lighting, video displays, point of sale, inventory control, staff and so forth- probably not viable.

Tom,

Funny you should say that. If you read Slowman’s article from 12/1, you’ll see that one of my local competitors is moving to a new location which is very similiar to your description. He may be wiser than me, but I do not see how that kind of store can be viable, even in Manhattan. I’m sure someone will show him this post and it’ll give him a chuckle.

JackRabbit has been successful in the much smaller market of Brooklyn because we’re not purely a triathlon shop. I’d bet Dan E. wouldn’t classify us as a tri shop because we don’t sell bikes. Our strength is running, but we also cater to cyclists with parts and accessories and clothing, and to swimmers with suits and training tools. We have a lot of stuff for yoga/pilates/the gym. Triathletes can find a lot of what they need here, but not everything. 40 of our customers did their first triathlon last year through programs that we offer, and if my numbers are right over 100 will do their first or their longest tri through our programs in 2005. That makes us a tri shop. That we’re a good shop for runners, cyclists, and swimmers makes us a viable business.

Lee Silverman
JackRabbit Sports
Park Slope, Brooklyn

20

Lew - come out of the clouds. The sport is intimidating to first timers who are out to do a sprint or oly for the first time. Then we have the tribe of hard-core age groupers who take themselves way to seriously and sport pro level bikes and gear that are unattainable for the neophyes.

21

I know this might come across as a somewhat “elitist” point of view, but I think that Ironman has been watered down to an everymans event similar to a marathon, rather than a task of somewhat greater proportion. reply: Maybe I missed something but how has it been “watered down?” he distance remains the same. Yes times are going up overall, but what I’ve read of early Ironmans the transitions were leisurely by todays standards. quote: the lady responded that her husband had done an IM and had the tattoo to prove it and I could tell by the look in this woman’s eyes that she doubted my wife had done one. reply: doesn’t this prove your point that it IS an awe-inspiring moment? This guy was so glad he finished that he had the emblem permanently affixed to his body. This is not normally done for 5-10k’s or even many marathons to my knowledge. Maybe he’ll never do another, but maybe her husband went on to do several and now competes at a high level. You seem offended that this lady didn’t know your wife, but you belittle her husband and you have no idea what time he finished in or what sacrafices he made to get there. quote:I remember when you had to take serious stock not only in your time commitment, but in your personal makeup to see if you had the guts and fortitude to do an Ironman. Part of me would like to see it back the way it was…not for everyone!!! reply: Sounds to me like this dude may well have done just that. I freely admit that I’ve never done an Ironman, or even a marathon, and thats fine with me. I like short races. I love the 5k and I can’t say I’ve ever felt much desire to do either an Ironman or a marathon. I guess for me, my tests have always come in other areas of life. (and trust me I believe in testing yourself often) I just think you’re being hard on a guy you’ve never met because his wife didn’t give yours the proper respect. Though this random lady seems pretty awe-struck w/ the race. (she couldn’t conceive someone doing an Ironman and NOT being so proud of themselves that they wouldn’t get a tatoo) just my rambling $0.02

22

Quote: Maybe I missed something but how has it been “watered down?” the distance remains the same. Yes times are going up overall, but what I’ve read of early Ironmans the transitions were leisurely by todays standards. Reply: My point was that the whole sport has been watered down, particularly Ironman. It has become vogue and you can purchase entry in to Kona through eBay. Get a coach, spend some cash, be like Richard Branson. I know the guys in this forum who make a living from the sport are appreciative that they can make a living doing something they love and more power to them, whether it be in retail or coaching. From my point of view, the growth hasn’t really benefited me. Quote: doesn’t this prove your point that it IS an awe-inspiring moment? This guy was so glad he finished that he had the emblem permanently affixed to his body. This is not normally done for 5-10k’s or even many marathons to my knowledge. Maybe he’ll never do another, but maybe her husband went on to do several and now competes at a high level. Reponse: Awe-inspiring may mean a different thing to you than I. I have a good friend who has summitted Mount Everest, but I don’t see her getting a tattoo to prove it to other people. I never liked the “Badge of Honor” mentality of fraternaties, so I guess this carries over from that idea. And if this fellow who you are championing (I don’t know how he became the topic…) has continued to race the distance and become a “high-level” competitor, I have no problem with that. Quote:You seem offended that this lady didn’t know your wife, but you belittle her husband and you have no idea what time he finished in or what sacrafices he made to get there. Reply: Where did you read into my comment that I was belittling the guy or that I was offended that the woman did not know my wife? Again, I think you missed the point of my thread and I only used the “day at the beach” as an example of how I percieved the sport to be castigated to the same level as the marathon; for the “everyman”. That is where all the marketing in Ironman is today. Look at IMNA and Degree as 2 examples. I don’t think that that is wrong for these 2 entities (not singling out, so don’t read into it…) to take advantage of the opportunity, but I freely admit that I have a NIMBY mentality with regard to a sport I have close to 20 years invested in. Quote: I freely admit that I’ve never done an Ironman, or even a marathon, and thats fine with me. I like short races. I love the 5k and I can’t say I’ve ever felt much desire to do either an Ironman or a marathon. I guess for me, my tests have always come in other areas of life. (and trust me I believe in testing yourself often) I just think you’re being hard on a guy you’ve never met because his wife didn’t give yours the proper respect. Reply: So how can you comment?? If you have never done anything in long-distance racing, good for you that you are fine with it. Short distance is great and I have had years where work and time commitments have forced me to scale back my efforts. And I agree that there are many other “tests” in life that gauge your makeup of who you are. But why do you think to understand what I meant in my thread if based on your exposure, you’ve never done the distance and possibly, weren’t around during the beginnings of the sport? My premise was I liked the way things were in the old days, as curmudgen as that sounds. I liked that it wasn’t for everyone and just because Mike Reilly says ‘…you are an Ironman’, doesn’t make it so. I wasn’t hard on anyone; let alone the guy in my story and I don’t give a rats ass if someone doesn’t recognize my wife or give her due reespect for her accomplishments. She knows what she has done and she doesn’t need a tattoo to prove it. Period.