It may be useless to you, but it is useful to me to see what others with similar characteristics rode on that course in the past. I am not trying to be exact, just looking at ballpark numbers for comparison purposes to see if my current training levels are where they need to be to reasonably expect a certain bike split. The data provided so far says yes…I am on track…which is what I was looking for. I realize on race day with all the possible variables factored in, I may or may not have a similar bike split. Thanks for your comments.
Hi Kevin. Yes…next on my list of things to get…among many others!!
Larry – thanks for the info. Nice job on your 2:42 split last year with the wind. I was 2:48 and felt it…was still recovering from trashing myself at IM NZ. Looking forward to meeting you at the race this year.
It may be useless to you, but it is useful to me to see what others with similar characteristics rode on that course in the past. I am not trying to be exact, just looking at ballpark numbers for comparison purposes to see if my current training levels are where they need to be to reasonably expect a certain bike split. The data provided so far says yes…I am on track…which is what I was looking for. I realize on race day with all the possible variables factored in, I may or may not have a similar bike split. Thanks for your comments.
Believe me, I’m trying to save you from the strong potential for future frustration. I’ve been doing the power thing for well over 5 years now and I’ve probably had at least a half dozen guys ask me the exact same questions as you did every year. I tell them exactly what I told you and they never listen. Most everyone needs to learn the hard way. A year later I hear from them and they say, “Wow, you were right Chris…” or I’ll read a post from them where they turn around and make the exact same recommendation to someone else as I did a year prior.
I fully realize you’re under the impression that what you’re reading today is useful. However, there’s a strong chance that you’ll come to discover that it was not only useless but it defocused you from where you should really set your attention.
I’ll say this a million times but ignore power:bike time estimates or comparisons. They’re highly random and they’re highly dependent on many factors that are out of your control.
No worries though. You’ll probably ignore everything I say. I’m just trying to help.
Thanks, Chris
Thanks Chris. I appreciate your helping me to not get too carried away with power/bike time splits and lose focus on my training. I will say that I have used this “in the ballpark” estimating in the past and for me it has been somewhat effective. For example, when I did Ironman NZ in 2008 I studied the course profile
/typical wind conditions and came up with what I thought was a good estimate for a bike split goal of 5:30. Since I only have power on my trainer, I did multiple long trainer rides where I focused on holding an avg power based on what I had estimated for extended periods of time. I also did shorter intervals at higher power levels. Before the race I felt pretty confident that I had dialed in the effort level required and as a result I ended up riding 5:31. Maybe it was just a fluke, and maybe this method would not work for everyone, but it seemed to work for me and it’s not the only time it has worked for me. Once I can afford to have a real power meter on my bike for training and racing, I hope to become even more focused on using power to improve my bike splits.
I would have to agree that you should factor your race intensity/power (%FTP) based upon how long you intend on being out there. My FTP at altitude was 320-330 and did my 2:25 split just a little higher than I would have liked (wind). I had planned on going under 2:20. My CTL was right around 100 before i started my taper, and my run volume was right around 26miles before my taper. If you look at your power curves it’s a gradual decline so you should be able to calculate what you can hold from your tests (5, 15, 30min) and get real close. I was a little worried that I over cooked myself last year since I was so much higher than anticipated. In hind sight I may have paced just right after factoring in altitude adjustment.
How does this jive with those saying they’re cranking out 25 mph on <250W? I guess I’m short-changing myself by riding the same position for sprints through halfs? I manage about 23 mph in a sprint, at 250W.
For reference, I make about 25 mph on 250w with me and the bike in half-IM setup. Of course, that’s on flat ground with no wind…no turns…no bottle pickups…no traffic…
Also – I use the same setup for all distances.
These are great responses. I am 5’10" and 165 (on race day…shooting for 157!!), P2C with 606 wheels. I was figuring I needed to be around 210 watts avg to go 2:35. As noted, last year the winds were pretty nasty…hopefully not this year. Data you guys have provided so far looks like I am shooting for about the right power output. Thanks so far.
To echo Chris…you should not choose a target power goal based on time, or on anyone elses’ time/power relationship. Just because one guy rides 2:35 on X watts doesn’t mean you will be able to. More importantly, just because somebody runs fast off of X watts doesn’t mean you’ll do it. You need to choose your watts based on your fitness, then execute the ride as best you can and let the time fall where it may.
An update:
I wound up riding approximately 2:34 with an avg. of 216 and a NP of 226 (for a VI of 1.05). I’ll have to look at the power file at home, but my recollection is that I rode the final 12 or 13 miles with an avg. in the 230’s. I am 5’9"-ish and was about 147 or 148 pounds on race day riding a P3-SL with a HED3 up front and a wheel cover in back.
Just out of curiosity, do you have splits and power numbers for other courses? I’m interested in seeing how the Oceanside course stacks up to a few others.
An update:
I wound up riding approximately 2:34 with an avg. of 216 and a NP of 226 (for a VI of 1.05). I’ll have to look at the power file at home, but my recollection is that I rode the final 12 or 13 miles with an avg. in the 230’s. I am 5’9"-ish and was about 147 or 148 pounds on race day riding a P3-SL with a HED3 up front and a wheel cover in back.
Interesting to compare my numbers to yours…
I rode the course in 2:41 (not counting the 5 minutes it took me to change a flat) with a PAvg of 218 and a PNorm of 226. VI was 1.04. I’m 6’1", 167 lbs, rode a P2C with a HED3 up front and a wheel cover on the back.
So very similar setup, but I was 7 minutes slower…I’m guessing the difference must have to do with weight and/or Cd.
An update:
I wound up riding approximately 2:34 with an avg. of 216 and a NP of 226 (for a VI of 1.05). I’ll have to look at the power file at home, but my recollection is that I rode the final 12 or 13 miles with an avg. in the 230’s. I am 5’9"-ish and was about 147 or 148 pounds on race day riding a P3-SL with a HED3 up front and a wheel cover in back.
Congrats Mike! Sounds like you had a solid ride (and run too)! Hope you enjoyed the race and your performance.
4:49 with a 1:32 run
Thanks, Chris
To help put things in perspective, I rode 2:44 last year averaging about 185 watts (I can get exact numbers when I get home, but that’s my best recollection.) I am 5’9"-ish and weighed about 150 lbs. on race dace. I rode a P3SL with a PT and wheel cover in back and a HED3 up front.
I’m a clone of you. Except I ride a Dual and don’t have a HED3.
Wesc,
FWIW,
In 2007, I rode 2:33 at Vineman 70.3 on the same set up and same weight: Avg. 184 watts with a NP of 195 watts (VI 1.06).
In 2008, I rode 5:32 at Vineman w/ the same set up and weight: Avg. 153 with a NP of 165 (VI 1.07).
“So very similar setup, but I was 7 minutes slower…I’m guessing the difference must have to do with weight and/or Cd.”
My guess is that it had something to do with my scrawny build and the hills! 
Thanks Chris. I hadn’t been able to run much leading up to the race because of a grumpy achilles tendon, so my goal was to ride a pretty steady bike leg and take it easy the first 9 or 10 miles on the run. If I still felt good after 9 or 10 miles, then I would open it up. I was able to execute the plan and it worked out pretty well. Now, if I can just learn to swim!
I just did the CA 70.3 course this year in 2:47:33 with an avg power of 195W, norm power of 207W, VI of 1.06 on a QR Seduza with Hed 3 up front and PT Open Pro with disk cover out back. I also did a lot of sitting up on this ride because my back started knotting up from the start for some reason which really zapped my power. I train in this position on my TT bike very often (2-3rides/wk) wth no problems so I am wondering if maybe the cold water had something to do with it. I was planning to hold around 210W give or take. My FTP is around 230W. I am 5’9" and 145lbs.
Just for comparison I did CA 70.3 this year in 2:31 at a 228 watt avg and I did Vineman 70.3 last July in 2:30 at a 222 watt avg. I was much better trained going into CA but I felt a little weak on the hills, still not sure why…
Interesting to compare my numbers to yours…
I don’t want this to come off the wrong way, but, to be completely blunt, it’s really not that “interesting.” I say this because there are so many factors that influence an athlete’s power numbers on any given day that comparing your data to anyone else’s is just a complete waste of time. I realize that some of you who are new to training and racing with power won’t believe me but it’s something you’ll come to realize over a period of time through experience.
I would even go as far as saying that comparing power data for the same person on the same course for different years – which means different conditions – can even offer you days worth of frustration (assuming you’re trying to make sense of why a specific AP and NP yielded a specific time).
I have found that power post-race analysis is most beneficial when you’re trying to determine the following:
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How did my power output match my race plan (ie by course segment, by terrain, for the entire race, etc)?
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If I made tactical adjustments to my execution during the race, how did the result of that adjustment reflect in my power output? Did the adjustment yield a positive result or a negative one?
I can certainly think of more things to add to this list but you get the point.
We simply cannot control the bike split (time) – we can only control our execution. If you focus on executing as per your race plan then you’ve likely done the best possible job of producing the fastest time. Of course, this assumes you’ve put in the proper training and attention to your race position on the bike. In addition, simply having a race plan doesn’t guarantee you’ll execute a solid race but it’s probably the best approach to documenting the process of learning how to execute an impeccable race.
Thanks, Chris
I don’t want this to come off the wrong way, but, to be completely blunt, it’s really not that “interesting.”
Thanks Chris. I get what you’re saying and clearly you’re much more knowledgeable about training and racing with power than I am (it’s my first season with my PT). Having said that, personally, I find it “interesting” to see what others’ power profiles look like for a race I completed myself. I’m not drawing any revolutionary conclusions, I just think it’s cool that’s all.