Armstrong's performance through Stage 12(TT)

Triathlon Forum
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After watching the first 12 stages of the Tour, I am curious to see what other people think about Lance’s performance. I am not folding on him, I still think he can win, and I want him to win. However, he certainly has not put his stamp on this race by any means. On the one hand, it has made for a very exciting race, much more so than the past couple of years. On the other hand, it makes me wonder what’s going on.

That said, I am curious to know whether you think that the reason things are so tight is that Lance is not in top form, or that the other riders finally brought their A game, a little of both, or something wholly unrelated.

I have read ad nauseum how he is sandbagging, and will open up a can of whoopass at some point, but that point should have been today, and there was no whooping of the ass. We have to wait until Sunday to see the Pyrenees and what they hold in store, but up to now, his performance has done nothing more than cause the dogs to start nipping at his heels.

Without knowing anything about him personally, I wonder if this is perhaps an emotional issue. I know that I go much faster when I’m into what I’m doing than when I am not. Perhaps this no longer interests him, or he is distracted by personal matters. Or perhaps I’m being too hard on him based on the fact that I think he never should have let Ullrich make up so much time, even though he did basically stomp everyone else.

Please don’t flame me, I just want to engage in healthy discussion about my man’s performance, and am trying not to fall into the pit of vipers who question it every time he has a bay day. I realize that he is still in first place, and that only two riders are within 2:00 of his overall time. But at this point, Ullrich is the last guy I’d want to be within 1:00 of me, and Vinokourov is talking so much smack I want to punch him.

So, Lance Armstrong, still master of his domain, or man jumping the shark? Discuss.

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podium girl???

http://gallery.consumerreview.com/webcrossing/images/girl(10

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Come on guys. LA is racing the top racers in the world. His performance isn’t bad. He certainly is “into” what he’s doing, and is professional, so I doubt his personal life isn’t going to get into his game. I’d love to see him win. Even better, i’d love to see it down to the wire, this time. Even Lance said he’d like to see more competition this year.

T

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I think that may be the most awful thing I have ever seen. I finally come up with a quasi-serious topic for this forum, and you sully it with pictures of the original Terminatrix concept.

Next someone will post a picture of one of the Hilton girls, and I’ll be forced to call them out.

The key to dealing with people is to not listen to half of what they say, and not to take the other half seriously.

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I agree. As much as I would like Lance to win, I am not sure I am as convinced that he will as when the race first started. Main reasons.

  1. Despite Lances preperation, I believe the other riders are just as prepared this time around as Lance has changed the way Le Tour is raced. Many are attacking him and biting at his heels.

  2. Emotionally. I wonder if Lance is going for it for the wrong reasons. Lance and EVERYONE else have set such high expectations. I think there is a tremendous amount of pressure on him. He needs to win for himself. I wonder if the drive to win is as strong as it has been in the past. The body reacts negativly to stress.

But his experience willplay a huge part in the end. It will be interesting. I am curious to see what will happen.:slight_smile:

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There are some significant trends this year which are conspiring against Lance.

This year, for the first time, he’s had more than one opponent in the mountains who is close in the GC. They probably don’t expect to win but they want a day in the yellow. Normally, with an early TT, he would have already been able to discount some of them.

Heras used to be the 2nd best climber, he isn’t anymore(so far at least).

The TT result is a big surprise. Assuming Ulrich wins the next by the same margin, Lance has to beat him by that amount in the mountains. He probably can though. Bear in mind that he hasn’t actually launched an attack in the mountains yet.

Events may now turn in Lance’s favor and against Ulrich. The other climbers need 2+ minutes over Ulrich just to finish 2nd, so they’ll be forced to attack in the next 3 stages. Lance just has to stay on their wheel.

Tomorrow’s stage will tell us everything we need to know.

Yeah right !

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It’s hard for me to decide what is going on. However, I think that Lance and the boys are still very much in control of the race. They emerged from the Alps with the yellow jersey, and though Lance did not win the TT today, he is still in yellow. That seems to be a point lost to many, though Paul Sherwen did mention it today as the broadcast went off. Ullrich is rallying, but you cannot count Lance out. I think he has an ace in the hole that others do not have, and this is his incredible will to win and rise to the occasion. I am holding fast in my belief that he will do what it takes to win this race. As long as he does not crash and stays the course, I think he will take #5. Everyone keeps saying how vulnerable he is, that he isn’t unbeatable anymore. But he has raced an efficient and tactically sound race. Could he be saving himself for the four day stand in the Pyrenees? Maybe. Ullrich had an unreal TT today, but Lance countered and stayed out in front just enough to keep yellow. Ullrich has never been able to stay with Lance in the mountains, even in his best form over the last several years. Maybe I have too much faith in Lance, but I cannot see someone beating him. It would take a crash or some other circumstance beyond his control. Given what he went through with his sickness, I think he is too mentally tough crack like some are expecting. If he had to win the TT today to keep yellow, I think he would have done so.

RP

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If Ullrich can do it again in the second TT (which is longer) then lance will have to take at lest a minute from Ullrich in the next four days.

Which is hard! Lance can attack very furiously in a climb but Ullrich usually pulls back towards the end of a climb, he’s a diesel.

No matter who will win, it’s the most exciting tour since a long time and that’s what counts, for me at least!

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Has anyone else noticed that Lance is doing only what he mustdo to win this year? I’m not saying he is sandbagging…he may genuinely be having problems with his form. He may just be getting older. But consider the strategy. In the mountains, the only people he let gain some time were the ones he knew he could beat in a TT. The rest of them, he countered beautifully. Note that on the Alpe D’Huez stage, the only person Postal really seemed to want to fry was Ullrich. In the TT, Lance beats Vino, Mayo, and Hamilton. Ullrich gains some time, but wait…Ullrich has NEVER been able to hang with the climbers. Why should that change in the pyrnees this year?

We are all thinking lance is in deep poop because we have not yet seen him turn in a spectacular attack. Even if he is unable to attack, all he has to do is hang with the climbers for the next few stages, as he did on Alpe D’Huez. He and the other climbers ride away from Ullrich, he puts a minimum of another 2:00 minutes into ulrich. Anyone think Ullrich will be able to put 2:30 or so into lance in the final TT? I don’t. He’s not THAT fast.

We all know Ullrich has the abilty and talent to trash just about anyone in a TT. He has beaten lance before (2000 olympics). The guy is a beast. But he can’t climb. And that is what will decide this race in the end. I think lance will win with one of the smallest margins he ever has, but his will still win.

Just my $.02.

Philbert

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This is my take on the situation. I think what he has been doing is tactical and thought out each day maybe a little add lib, but a plan is being played out. Remember were just over half way. The stages coming are hard, the race so far has been hard. This race is on course to be one of the fastest TDF’s ever.

To put it in Tri language Let’s use larsen and Deboom and others. Let’s say Larsen got out of the water in pretty good position went really hard on the bike (played his cards properly) to put himself way in the lead. Deboom got out of the water ahead of Larsen lost some time on the bike but is only 10 minutes back (played his cards properly). Its 95 degrees and Ried and leito have caught deboom whom are now 10 seconds behind larsen with 5K to go. That would be an exciting race probably right down to the wire. I think that is where the TDF is now.

You know Ullrich is hurting after that ride, Lance hopefully stayed within himself which he has done almost every stage.

Vinokourov may be talking smack but he has been backing it up. That was a very good TT. Let’s see if he can hang the next couple of days.

I think Tyler is not out of it either, fractured collar bone and all. He may be hurting but I don’t think his legs or hurting.

I think will pretty much know the winner by tuesday. If it is tight after monday the blue train is to powerful for any of the remaining teams to beat and it will go to the 19th stage TT.

I am hoping for an action packed race with lance wearing the yellow jersey home. Lance may need to leave his heart rate monitor at the hotel room and just go for it. I think if he does that this weekend, only two people if that many will be within striking distance of him with pretty spent legs.

Gary, Now we know what steroids will do to a podium girl.

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i don’t know if ullrich will be able to take that kind of time out of armstrong again. i think the heat played a factor in the size of the gap, as i have heard that ullrich enjoys(or at least suffers less) in warmer conditions. the second time trial, while longer, is also flatter, which in my mind will make it more difficult to put bigger gaps into people. and finally, ullrich road out of his mind today. that has got to be one of his greatest performances in a tt in his career. lance didn’t ride that badly at all and ullrich stomped him and everyone else. hopefully lance can put another minute or two into ullrich just to be safe, but even without it, if lance goes into that final time trial up 30 seconds, i think he will ride himself into the ground to maintain that advantage…

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FWIW, today was confirmation of what Lance and everyone else has been saying all along. Ullrich is THE biggest talent in cycling, by quite some margin. On his best day no one, not even Lance can stay with him. If Ullrich approached the TDF like Lance (not the same training, but with the same single-mindedness) he would be absolutely unstoppable. He would ride away from everyone like Merckx in the old days. But that is only the raw talent he has. A rider is his complete self, not just physical ability. Up to this point Lance has trumped Ullrich in the mental department. I say today’s result shows ullrich now recognizes its “game on”. Lance will have to work very hard in this second half to beat Ullrich. Those two are the class of the field, though Vino is proving he belongs there and Tyler is only handicapped by his injury. I think the top four are a pretty safe bet at this point unless one of them seriously cracks. The order remains wide open. I’m sticking with Lance. I’m looking for a punishing stage win from him.

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But he can’t climb. (ref Ullrich)

huh??? We are talking about a former TdF champion who has won stages in the mountains. 1997 to Andorra, and stage 16 in 1998. Others?

Go Jan!

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Its a moot point but it would have been interesting to see where Beloki stacked up today.

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Ullrich has NEVER been able to hang with the climbers. Why should that change in the pyrnees this year?

We all know Ullrich has the abilty and talent to trash just about anyone in a TT. He has beaten lance before (2000 olympics). The guy is a beast. But he can’t climb. I just don’t agree with these statements. We’re talking about a guy who has won the tour once and finished second 3 times(and never worse). Someone who can’t climb could never have done this. Someone who can’t climb would have lost more than the 1:24 Jan lost to Lance over the three Alps stages. I’ve also seen Jan as the last person dropped by Armstrong in an alpine stage. I also recall Jan dropping Lance to win a mountaintop finish in the tour a few years back. I don’t know how it will all turn out, but I certainly think that Jan will be in that last pack of 5-10 “climbers” at the end of the Pyrenean stages and if he is dropped by Lance, will be one of the last handful hanging in there. One thing we all seem to agree on is that this has been the most exciting Tour in years.

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Ullrich has NEVER been able to hang with the climbers. Why should that change in the pyrnees this year?

We all know Ullrich has the abilty and talent to trash just about anyone in a TT. He has beaten lance before (2000 olympics). The guy is a beast. But he can’t climb.

I think we all know that’s a silly statement. How do you define a climber. Well if you say it has to be a rider under 140lbs with a climbing cadence of at least 90rpms, then YES Jan can’t climb. But if you think a climber is a guy that can go from the bottom of a mountain to the top in the fewest minutes, then Jan is right on top with the rop climbers. I said this before, Jan is not a “jumping” kind of guy, it takes him some time to get going. So a Pantani, Virenque or Lance can jump to a quick 10-20 second lead but then the german diesel will hold it’s own and more often than not pull back some time.

I still hope Armstrong will win.

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Funny you should mention the ‘takes a while to get going’ thing. Phil Liggett was talking about that the other day, saying that since Ullrich usually pushes a bigger gear, his cadence is slower and he takes a while to get up to speed, particularly on the big climbs. But when he does get up to speed, look out! He consistently sticks around until the end.

I was reading elsewhere that he has been studying Lance and is now using smaller gears and higher cadence. I may have read that here, and I don’t know if it’s true, but it doesn’t seem to be hurting him if true.

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He did use smaller gears in the TT today. He says it’s because there was a climb at the end of the TT, so he wanted to save his legs for that. Maybe that’s just what he says to the media, maybe he is trying to learn from Lance, who knows.

He is also lighter than in the last couple years so that might have something to do with his cadence as well, Lance used to be a masher to when he was heavier.

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Early in the race I thought LA was just riding very conservatively and planning ahead to save something for #6. After the Alps and the TT today I changed my mind. He is just plain sucking. Granted I wish I could suck that bad for just one day, but he has just not looked right the entire race.The TT was especially telling since the hilly course favored Lance who has a better watts/kg than Ulrich and he lost more time on the hills at the end than at the start. That does not bode well for the mountains.

It seems like a number of things have not gone right this time around and everything he avoided the first 4 wins has all happened this time around. Crashes, illness, bad days etc. He has had a different excuse every day so it seems like he can’t figure out what is wrong either, but in the end he is just not in top form. I think he still has a good shot at winning since he only needs to take another 1:30 out of Ulrich to have sufficient cushion in the last TT where the flat course favors Ulrich and barring a collapse the climbers are effectively out of the GC race.

Time will tell, but perhaps he has used up his lifetime supply of resources and is going to hit the wall like all the other multiple tour winners eventually have. I certainly wouldn’t put any money on him getting a sixth win now.

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All this talk about Lance and his “weak” performance thus far is choking the life out of me. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a 100% Lance fan. But could it just possibly. . .might. . .maybe be because. . .God forbid. . .THE OTHER GUYS ARE GOOD THIS YEAR? I mean you are doing them a HUGE disservice by looking at Lance’s lack of domination as a sign that he’s weaker than previous years. Ullrich looks and rides fantastic this year. Beloki showed a confidence he lacked in the previous Tours. Vino. . .well what can you say. . .he’s having a career year. I think Lance has some competition. I think it is startling him how good these guys have gotten. I still think he’ll rise to the occasion. This year will present some true obstacles to winning. We’ll see if he’s able to go back to the mental fortitude well. I think he can.