Best guess on turnout? Violence?
It will be interesting to see. Seems like it will be super easy for them to totally disrupt the election. I just hope they don’t kill people just trying to vote. I got to hand it to the people who are running though, you would have to be one brave and comitted person for sure.
There are… if I read this correctly, 8000 total candidates for all the various posts and seats. Amazing. Those can’t all be on the ballot obviously if I read that correctly.
Our election here in Detroit was yesterday I believe. Turn-out was reported in the local paper as good. It was a relatively low key affair.
However, that does not speak to the monumental significance of this event: This is the first attempt, in 4,000 years, of anything resembling order and sanity of the government in Mesopatamia, Iraq, the fertile crescent.
I expect there will either be attempts at violence or some significant incidents. Like the bumper sticker says: “Freedom isn’t Free”.
MSNBC reported insurgents have stated they have 400 suicide bomber in country. If a fraction of this is true, tomorrow could be a real tragedy in human terms.
Insurgents have threatened to behead voters, and the children of voters, as reported in the NY TImes. Scary, indeed.
I’m not too worried about the elections.
I am worried about who gets elected. I have a feeling that the new goverment will be very favorable to Iran.
My guess is a handful of people will die and many people will be suspicious of whoever is elected, no matter how legit it actually is. The intentions may be good, but there is still much struggle and heartache ahead, although that could be said for the whole world probably. Outside chance of the whole thing being called off a day if too many people are glued to the tele’s watching the Slowtwitchers do battle up Mt. Palomar.
Everyone involved will eventually lose.
This is the first attempt, in 4,000 years, of anything resembling order and sanity of the government in Mesopatamia, Iraq, the fertile crescent.
Bit of an overstatement, historically speaking.
As for the elections, they won’t be as disasterous as some will say, nor as successful as others will claim.
I expect that by and large, those elected will be those who favor an American presence.
Real short term impact- none. No more significance than handing over “sovereignty.”
Real long term impact- we’ll see. None, probably.
I’m much more hopeful. First off, this is the first orderly election conducted in the country. Even though one could argue how orderly it is.
Secondly, this really is tantamount to many post-war societies. It’s like a Mad Max movie for a while. One thing worth remembering is that, in a brilliant move at subversion of the occupation (oh, I’m sorry Sir, I didn’t use the “o” word…) Saddam Hussein released 30,000 prisoners from Iraqi jails prior to the arrival of our forces.
The country was basically fuct then. I mean, what would happen if we just let all the prisoners out in the U.S.? These were not political prisoners, they were felons, rapists, murders, drug dealers, embezellers, psychotics- all released willy-nilly into the country side to welcome our troops. so, that is one factor that has led to a degree of disarray during the past year.
20 years from now I will be sitting in Baghdad having lunch in a sidewalk cafe.
Go to www.instapundit.com to read some interesting takes on the election. it has a solid roundup of election blogs. An interesting link takes you to another blog that goes after the MSM (mainstream media) for already publishing articles damning the results of the election.
Personally, I think the election will go well. Don’t forget that those 8000 candidates are spread out over the entire country and that millions of people are registered to vote. My guess is that the Sunni minority is trying to disrupt the election so that it can possibly return to the power that it held under Saddam. But the Shiite majority won’t stand for that…
I just find it sad that the MSM has already gone after the elections. They want the election process to fail (therefore they want people to die - Iraqis and Americans) so that they can enjoy their self-assured smugness that they feel is their divine right because they wield a pen or a microphone. Rather pathetic…the day of major news outlet driving the thoughts and beliefs of the American people is on the way out.
Drudgereport.com
instapundit.com
etc. etc.
have hastened their demise…
Good luck, Iraq!!
B.
I don’t know that the media wants the elections to fail so they can toot their own horn so much as because it makes for better news than if everything goes smoothly.
"However, that does not speak to the monumental significance of this event: This is the first attempt, in 4,000 years, of anything resembling order and sanity of the government in Mesopatamia, Iraq, the fertile crescent. "
Maybe it’s the first attempt at “Western” order and government, but don’t forget that there is 4000 years of history. It’s called the “cradle of civilization” for a reason, and people write off the Middle East too easily, not realizing the centuries of arts, government, etc, etc. The troubles we see are fairly recent in the overall history of Western Asia.
Secondly, this really is tantamount to many post-war societies. It’s like a Mad Max movie for a while. One thing worth remembering is that, in a brilliant move at subversion of the occupation (oh, I’m sorry Sir, I didn’t use the “o” word…) Saddam Hussein released 30,000 prisoners from Iraqi jails prior to the arrival of our forces.
The country was basically fuct then. I mean, what would happen if we just let all the prisoners out in the U.S.? These were not political prisoners, they were felons, rapists, murders, drug dealers, embezellers, psychotics- all released willy-nilly into the country side to welcome our troops. so, that is one factor that has led to a degree of disarray during the past year.
Didn’t the Dalai Lama do just the same in Tibet when he became their leader?
If we let all of the prisoners out that are in the US? Well, our GDP would undoubtedly go up. Tax revenues would go up. Tax spending on the prison system would go down. Private corporations that benefit from the prison-industrial complex would be, as you put it, fuct. Best of all though, we would finally legitimately be a free country, instead of just calling the US the land of the free while we have the highest per capita rate of imprisonment in the world. But yeah, people would be on edge for a while, no doubt about that. Let’s also not forget that Saddam Hussein is often accused of imprisoning totally innocent people, (if didn’t decide to kill them instead) so maybe it wasn’t such a bad thing.
** 20 years from now I will be sitting in Baghdad having lunch in a sidewalk cafe.**
Well, good luck with that vacation. Maybe you can swing by Kabul, too, for some tea. No doubt it will be a garden spot, a tourist trap, in twenty years.
Send me a postcard, I’ll not be taking that trip.
“4000 years of history is a long time. Look at the modren day middle east and show me a country run better than those in the west.”
I never said that there were Middle Eastern countries run better than “the West.” I was responding to Tom’s comment that this would be the first sanity and real government in 4000 years, which simply isn’t accurate.
Best case scenario is that there is a high turnout and they elect people the West like. But the trouble with democracy is that you can’t make them vote they way you want 
All other scenarois are not good at all.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39432-2005Jan26.html
can’t remember which (GASP!) major, mainstream media site i was on, but there was an article that chronicled a small-ish town in iraq where democracy was “taking hold”. they quoted an individual there who said his ideal candidate was someone that was strongly nationalist and that who would work hard to protect the holy places in iraq.
if this sentiment was wide spread, then i don’t think there will be much change in s.o.p. for the new iraqi gov’t vis-a-vis other mid-east regimes. now of course, it could be that the big media(OH MY!) specifically vetted this individual and highlighted him because of those views. i don’t know.
and i should add, if that’s the type of regime iraqis want, then that’s up to them. i have find it difficult to believe that the u.s. would sit idly by if a nationalistic, religious(not necessarily a theocracy) gov’t was being put in place(unless it was also somehow pro-u.s.).
i guess my overall point is that one vote does not a democracy make…
So shall we redefine a democracy as: the result of a popular vote that also meets with US approval?
ready for me to get deep? democracy goes well beyond the mechanics of voting. it’s a state of mind. it’s actual accountability. it’s about actual choice and the ability to rectify mistakes the next election cycle. tons of places have elections, but i wouldn’t call them a democracy.
I was remarking on this point, which suggests that the US will intervene if the result does not suit it:
i have find it difficult to believe that the u.s. would sit idly by if a nationalistic, religious(not necessarily a theocracy) gov’t was being put in place(unless it was also somehow pro-u.s.).
Can you let me know when you get deep?
ok, yes, in my opinion, when the u.s. engages in nation-building such as in iraq, then democracy means a system voted into place that is friendly or at least open to the u.s. and its interests.
if that means the u.s. has to manipulate things, then i believe they will do it. it’s my opinion that, in this case, the u.s. is so linked to the vote/system going into place that it will be very difficult, in the short term, to recognize if there is any pulling of strings taking place. however, i find it also difficult to believe that with the number of u.s. troops in the area and the heavy u.s. presence in the country that there is a real chance the iraqis will elect someone that won’t be amenable to u.s. interests. this election isn’t taking place in a vacuum(so to speak) where every candidate has the same levels of electability from the outset…
i don’t feel as if i am articulating my point very well…