2:46 in his debut in AZ with multiple porta potty stops, 2:44 last year in kona…this year was his 2nd slowest Iron distance Marathon, not including Regensburg. Frankfurt he went 2:53 and won by 5 minutes, who knows what he could have run if he was challenged.
2:44 in Kona is exactly my point, because someone went 2:42.
He went 2:41 in Roth, but Chrissie went 2:44 there. He needs a 2:41 in Kona, and that requires a bit more.
2:46 in Arizona? How fast was Chrissie there last year? And is Arizona 4 minutes “slower” than Kona? I think 2:46 in Arizona is good, but it does not make you a Kona champion unless you break away on the bike.
Frankfurt is not a super fast marathon course, but Bracht has gone low 2:40’s there and I think Macca too. In the 2:50’s in Frankfurt is not comparable to 2:42 in Kona.
I agree that if she could have gone with her she would have. If she wanted to win I don’t see why she’d want to risk having to make up the 3-4 minutes or whatever it was on the run when it’s highly debatable that she is the better runner at this distance anyway.
Chrissie would usually be 3-4 minutes up the road after the swim under normal conditions anyhow and Mirinda simply cannot hang with her on the bike.
The only way she could win at the moment is for Chrissie to melt down on the run and that hasn’t happened anywhere yet.
They both have the same problem for this paticular race, the bike. Miranda has a bigger problem with Chrissie, but she also has an obvious problem that can be easily solved. Her position is horrible, and if she fixes that, then she is just 5 to 7 minutes slower on the bike. Andreas is about that 5 to 7 minutes slow, but he has no obvious fix to get an easy 5 minutes. Keep in mind that once they ride that extra bit harder, it will affect their runs too.
They both are beautiful runners, but like many in the old days, there are folks that just run ugly and fast. Chrissie is one of those people, and really, how much faster can the other women get on the run?? She goes a 2;52 injured, Mirandas only hope is to drop 4 minutes in her swim and 12 on the bike to have any chance…I said this in another thread, Chrissie gave up about 8 minutes on the swim, and she would easily have been within a few minutes of Thurig and Diebens bike splits. That is what she usually does healthy, so no reason to not think so for this race. So she swims a 53 or perhaps 54 on this little bit slow course, rides a 4;47 or so on this really fast course, and then of course loses a bit off this run split, as there is some give back for going faster on the bike. So probably a 2;56 on the day… And I do not think I’m being overly generous to her, this is her MO in all her races, and she just doesn’t ever seem to blow up. She has slowed down before with bad early splitting, but never really blows… I figure she had a low 8;40+ in her on sunday at 100%, which in context with the mens winner is just about right for her. A 40 minute gap is normal for her, and on great days it is closer to 30 minutes…
What drove me crazy on race day was how the announcers were so excited by watching these two runners, and constantly assuming they were catching everyone. Listening to them, you would have thought Chrissie had no chance to survive at all. Do they not look at the splits right in front of their faces?? If you had to look pretty to run fast at Hawaii, Dave Scott would have never won even one race. Go look at his style and then try to imagine him next to Crowie, Ralert, or Macca, and him actually dropping all of them. It is not a pretty sight, and doesn’t seem possible, but it is the reality of what happend in this races history…
I personally think his best chance of winning the event has now gone.
If Michael Raelert can get fit and race next year I think he’s got the better chance to win Kona. Unless Andreas can improve his marathon by 2-4 minutes I don’t see him winning the event in a straight foot race against the best runners - unless he can breakaway on the bike.
It doesnt seem possible to me that anyone will be able to beat Chrissie too soon without significant improvement…
Raelert on the other hand? the guy just went 8:12 and 8:11 two consecutive years, so I think that its well within the realm of possibility for him to have his day and get the win. He was one gel packet away from the win last year, and a couple breakout performances beat him this year.
Except for Crowie’s 8:04 this year, Macca’s 8:10 last year & Normann in 2006 (8:11:56) Raelert’s last two Kona times would have won every other race there in the last 20 years (yes I checked).
I’ve never heard him characterize his problem at kona last year being calories. did he say that?
in the post race interviews I recall him just saying he was hurting real bad from the pace to catch macca on the run.
anyway, the guy was injured before kona this year. Perfectly reasonable to expect he will be stronger next year if he gets healthy.
It doesnt seem possible to me that anyone will be able to beat Chrissie too soon without significant improvement…
Raelert on the other hand? the guy just went 8:12 and 8:11 two consecutive years, so I think that its well within the realm of possibility for him to have his day and get the win. He was one gel packet away from the win last year, and a couple breakout performances beat him this year.
Except for Crowie’s 8:04 this year, Macca’s 8:10 last year & Normann in 2006 (8:11:56) Raelert’s last two Kona times would have won every other race there in the last 20 years (yes I checked).
i was being melodramatic about the gel packet. He grabbed two cokes at the last aid station to macca’s one, and macca gunned it.
i was being melodramatic about the gel packet. He grabbed two cokes at the last aid station to macca’s one, and macca gunned it.
yeah yeah
andreas woulda gunned it too if he could i think =)
It doesnt seem possible to me that anyone will be able to beat Chrissie too soon without significant improvement…
Raelert on the other hand? the guy just went 8:12 and 8:11 two consecutive years, so I think that its well within the realm of possibility for him to have his day and get the win. He was one gel packet away from the win last year, and a couple breakout performances beat him this year.
Except for Crowie’s 8:04 this year, Macca’s 8:10 last year & Normann in 2006 (8:11:56) Raelert’s last two Kona times would have won every other race there in the last 20 years (yes I checked).
You didn’t check carefully…
I think that there are more females out there doing the training that is required to kick Chrissie’s ass, then that there are males out there doing what it takes to kick the asses of the ironman dinosaurs of today. I think that we will see other women getting at the level of Chrissie way before we will see a man who is better then Alexander or Macca.
what van lierde? I didnt think anyone on Slowtwitch counted that one?
LVL and Hellriegel in 96
Mark Allen in 92 and 93.
Wasn’t Raelert the one who got kicked in the face or something during the swim, too? I remember reports of somebody bleeding pretty badly. Maybe I’m getting him confused with somebody else.
yeah yeah, but doesnt change my point. Among the winning times over the past twenty years, 8:11 and 8:12 are no joke. I don’t like or dislike Raelert for any reason, but those times would indicate he has as much potential as anyone (and more than most people in the last twenty years) to win this race. To say his brother has more potential to win Kona isn’t taking actual facts into consideration, its just dreaming of possibilities that don’t exist yet. Dave Scott went faster only once, 8:10 in 1989.
2011 - 8:04
2010 - 8:10 (Macca)
2009 - 8:20
2008 - 8:17
2007 - 8:15
2006 - 8:11 (stadler)
2005 - 8:14
2004 - 8:33
2003 - 8:22
2002 - 8:29
2001 - 8:31
2000 - 8:21
1999 - 8:17
1998 - 8:24
1997 - 8:33
1996 - 8:04 (van lierde)
1995 - 8:20
1994 - 8:20
1993 - 8:07 (Allen)
1992 - 8:09 (Allen)
1991 - 8:18
I’m not disagreeing with you. But you said you checked and I knew it wasn’t correct 
what van lierde? I didnt think anyone on Slowtwitch counted that one?
Why wouldn’t Luc Van Lierde count? Is there something on him? Like something that proved cheating, but for some reason didn’t qualify, ie a drug test with levels just under cut off?
Listen I really like the guy and hope he does get the win as he’s come so close.
But I disagree with you completely on the times thing you mention.
These guys are not racing times, they are racing the guys in front of them. Times do not account for the dynamic of the race or conditions.
In '09 Raelert couldn’t stay with Crowie and Crowie ran a 2:48. Last year he couldn’t stay with Macca.
This year he gave it a damn good go to close the gap on Crowie but couldn’t do it so the finish times he has are totally irrelevant as he didn’t win it.
I don’t doubt he can win it, but I just think he has something missing when head to head with the other great runners.
It is interesting though that to get the 2:44, he had to bonk hard and loose 1:40 to Macca the last mile… I remember watching after Macca crossed and saying, “Where the hell did Raelert go?” They were neck and neck, then he finished 1:40 down. His running last year was because Macca took 1:30 or so out of him on the bike. Happened to him again this year… So he definitely needs to come off the bike with the fast runners, if not before. My only point was your comment of “until now”. Because he did not throw down a better run split. He went 2:47, so it’s not until now he didn’t have the run to run with a Macca or Crowie, he still doesn’t. Or at least, I’d like to see him get another shot at not chasing like in his debut, where Crowie dropped him at mile 16…maybe now he would hang if he didn’t expend so much chasing.
Why do professional triathletes have “amateur” problems?
The ST experts could have diagnosis Carfrae’s awkward bike fit in two seconds. Why didn’t Team Rinny who sees her everyday notice it?
Shit is unacceptable